The 2023 NFL salary cap reportedly set; Here's how it impacts the Patriots

Their effective cap space is $28,492,728, which factors in getting to the 51 roster including signing draft picks, and by that metric, the Pats jump up to fifth.

Furthermore, a couple of teams with greater space than the Patriots have to spend more of it on their current roster. The Giants $44,279,461 total and $41,125,422 effective space does not include QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley, both of whom are unsigned and expected back and eating up a good chunk of that money. The Bengals at $35,553,058 total and $32,928,387 effective have a possible enormous extension on tap with QB Joe Burrow and another large one with Tee Higgins.

The Patriots do not have those levels of potential extensions, nor do they have likely big contract guys that are hitting free agency. All told 22 Pats will see their contracts run out. WR Jakobi Meyers looks like the most expensive of the group, and likely the one New England prioritizes bringing back in a thin wide receiver free agent year. RB Damien Harris and CB Jonathan Jones also hit the market. With Rhamondre Stevenson taking over the lead back role, it looks very unlikely that Harris gets a big offer to return.

In addition to the cap space, New England has 11 draft picks in 2023, so expect lots of new faces in town. That is very needed as the Pats have a very meh roster in a division where everyone else played well for extended stretches in 2022 and figures to get even better in 2023. The Bills will bring most of their still-young roster back from a team that has one of the best talent bases in the league and went 13-3. The Dolphins started 8-3 and looked like a serious Super Bowl threat before a late-season fade coupled with Tua Taigavaloa missing extended time. The Jets also started very well then remembered they were the Jets and faded to 7-10. They have several big-upside young players and a solid defense and look like contenders if they can solve their QB woes.

The Patriots in the post-Brady era have become a high-floor but low-ceiling team. They have gone 25-25 in the last three seasons, making the playoffs as a wild card in 2021 and just missing in 2021. Caesars Sportsbook has already posted Super Bowl odds for the 2023 season and the Patriots are not getting a lot of love in the early going. They are at +4500, tied for 19th lowest. Even the Jets are lower at +4000.

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The Patriots clearly need to add high-impact players on offense. They ranked 15th overall in  Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the metric used on Football Outsiders to rate teams. On defense, the Pats had the third-best DVOA in the league but on offense, they rank just 24th.

Unfortunately for the Pats, there are not many great free-agent options on offense. According to Pro Football Focus, the top two free agents are QBs Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith and neither figures to either particularly interest the Pats or actually hit free agency to begin with. Mac Jones has both shown enough at QB to not get shown the door before Year 3, and also not enough that he is definitely going to guide New England for the next decade. There are also some interesting Running backs hitting the market, but the Pats will likely not go for anything more than a backup or 3rd down sort of player.

That leaves receivers and tight ends as realistic areas to look for an upgrade. The best one out there according to PFF is none other than Jakobi Meyers at number 7 overall. Then comes Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz at  #19, who would actually make some sense. Beyond that though, there is Chiefs WR Juju Smith Schuster at #35, WR Odell Beckham at #38 off a missed season and two torn ACL’s in the last three years, and Saints WR Michael Thomas at #39 off barely playing in three seasons.

In 2022 star receivers Davonte Adams, Tyreek Hill, and AJ Brown all changed teams via trade, so perhaps some stud pass catchers shake free this off-season. The Patriots would have the cap space to bring them in, but they do not have much history of trading high draft picks. Speaking of the draft, they pick 14th and could potentially pick a receiver there. All the top targets figure to still be available there. They could also grab guys later with a few of their many picks.

All in all, it sets up as an interesting offseason for a Patriots team trying to break the mid-league treadmill and get back to the elite level.