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Finding Value in NFL Betting Odds- Tips for Spotting Favorable Lines
Photo: Horned Frogs wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) celebrates as he scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Finding Value in NFL Betting Odds- Tips for Spotting Favorable Lines

Betting on the NFL is one of the most popular forms of sports betting. It can be a great way to enjoy your time and potentially make profits. However, in order to do so successfully, you need to know how to spot favorable lines.

Understanding lines and covering the NFL odds is a great start to your venture.

What is value in sports betting?

Value in sports betting means finding bets with odds that are higher than they should be, based on the probability of the outcome occurring. If you're able to spot these openings, you may use this knowledge to your advantage via strategic wagering.

One way for sports bettors to determine whether they are getting a good deal is to compare the odds being provided. It should be to their own estimation of the chance of an event happening. If they find the odds to be either too high or too low, they may have made a good find. There may be value in a wager if, for instance, the odds offered by the bookmaker are 2/1 on a certain team winning a match, but you think that team has a better probability of winning than suggested by those odds.

Different types of betting lines available and how to read them

Reading sports betting lines can be a bit tricky, especially for beginners. The first thing you need to understand is the type of line being used. There are three main types of lines: moneyline, point spread, and total.

Moneyline bets are the simplest form of sports betting and involve picking a team to win outright. Point spreads involve predicting the margin of victory or defeat for a given team. Total bets involve predicting whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a certain number.

Once you’ve identified the type of line being used, you’ll need to understand how it works.

  • Moneylines are usually expressed as either positive or negative numbers. Positive numbers indicate how much you would win if you bet $100 on that team. Negative numbers indicate how much you would have to bet in order to win $100.
  • Point spreads are usually expressed as either half-points or whole points. Half-points indicate that there is no favorite in the game. Whole points indicate that one team is favored over another.
  • Totals are usually expressed as either whole numbers or half-numbers. Whole numbers indicate that there is no favorite in the game, while half-numbers indicate that one team is favored over another.

How to identify value in sports betting markets

1. Do your research – Before placing any bets on the NFL, make sure that you’ve done your homework and researched both teams thoroughly. This means looking at their past performance as well as any injuries. Do not neglect other factors that could affect the outcome of the game including the weather.

2. Look for trends – Try to identify patterns in previous games between the two playing teams. You can even look at each team’s season-long performance. You will be assured of getting an edge when making a bet. For example, if one team has consistently won against another over a certain period of time, then this might indicate that they have an advantage going into this particular matchup too.

3. Compare lines across different bookmakers – Different bookmakers will often offer different odds for the same event. It is to mean that there may be discrepancies between them. At this point, you can find value by backing whichever line offers better returns on your bet than others do.

4. Consider public opinion – It’s always worth considering what other people think about each team before placing a wager. This is because public opinion can sometimes sway betting markets towards certain outcomes. Interestingly, this is more than actual facts would suggest they should go toward those outcomes