Underdogs Rising- Teams That Could Surprise in the 2025 Season

Since the league’s 2002 realignment, 25 teams have made the leap from last place to first in their division within a single year. Although 2024 didn’t produce a worst-to-first turnaround, the 2025 season could mark a return to that trend.

San Francisco 49ers: A Contender in Disguise

No team is better positioned to break through in 2025 than the 49ers. Despite their 6-11 record in 2024, advanced metrics tell a different story. San Francisco posted a 6.7% DVOA—remarkably, the best ever for a team with 11 losses since 1978. Injuries ravaged their roster last season, but stars like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams are returning to full health.

Even more encouraging is their schedule. ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks it the easiest in the league, featuring weak opponents from the NFC South, AFC South, and struggling teams like the Giants and Browns. With a 35.8% chance to win the NFC West and 62.4% to make the playoffs, the 49ers' rise may feel less like a surprise and more like a return to form.

Chicago Bears: Talent Surge Meets Brutal Slate

The Bears are in a position many teams envy—with an exciting young quarterback in Caleb Williams, a rebuilt offensive line, and new head coach, Ben Johnson. Williams is expected to take a step forward in his second year, and Johnson’s offensive background brings optimism. Despite finishing 2024 with a 5-12 record, they’re seen as an above-average team heading into this season.

But there's a catch: Chicago faces the league’s second-toughest schedule, per DVOA. Every other NFC North team made the playoffs last year, and only the Vikings are expected to regress. It’s no surprise the Bears have become one of the trickiest teams to evaluate when projecting NFL win totals. Challenging out-of-division games against the AFC North and NFC East add more hurdles. The Bears may have playoff potential, but the road is full of traps.

New England Patriots: Rebuilding with Purpose

Few franchises have undergone as dramatic a makeover as New England. A 4-13 finish last season triggered a hard reset. Drake Maye, who posted a solid 58.6 QBR as a rookie, returns behind a stronger offensive line and a new coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel. The roster saw major upgrades with Stefon Diggs, Carlton Davis III, and TreVeyon Henderson joining the team.

While the Patriots enjoy a relatively easy schedule, 28th in projected difficulty, they face strong divisional rivals. The Bills are still dominant, with a 65% chance to win the AFC East. Though New England’s 14% divisional odds don’t impress, their 33.9% playoff projection marks them as a legitimate wild-card contender.

New Orleans Saints: Division Weakness Could Be a Lifeline

The Saints, despite ranking last in FPI projections, could benefit from playing in the NFL’s weakest division. After a 5-12 season and Derek Carr’s retirement, they’re turning to rookie QB Tyler Shough to bring fresh energy. Still, expectations for second-round QBs are usually low in year one.

Defensively, aging stars like Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu are reaching the end of their careers, and the unit is projected to finish last. Yet with the Panthers, Falcons, and Buccaneers also near the bottom of FPI, New Orleans remains in contention. Their 11.6% chance to win the NFC South may be slim, but in this division, it’s enough to stay relevant.

Tennessee Titans: A New Era, Slowly Unfolding

Cameron Ward brings hope to Tennessee, but the Titans aren’t expecting immediate success. After a 3-14 finish in 2024, Ward should outperform Will Levis’ league-worst QBR, though it won’t be enough alone. FanDuel’s analysis of NFL matchups echoes this sentiment, highlighting Tennessee’s limited upside in a competitive AFC South.

The defense remains a major issue, projected 30th in DVOA. Outside of L’Jarius Sneed and Dre’Mont Jones, there were few impactful additions, and the team hasn’t used a first-round pick on defense since 2019. With just an 8.9% chance to win the AFC South, expectations are modest, but some improvement is likely.

Las Vegas Raiders: Outside Shot, Inside Talent

The Raiders face the daunting task of competing with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos, all 2024 playoff teams. That reality tempers the enthusiasm surrounding new quarterback Geno Smith. The Raiders do have a respectable 23.9% chance to make the playoffs, at least higher than some other bottom-feeders, but just a 7.1% shot at the division crown.

Las Vegas' path is demanding, but not impossible. Smith brings veteran poise, and if he quickly gels with the roster, the Raiders could sneak into contention. A strong start is essential, as a mid-season slump would likely bury their chances in this ultra-competitive division.

New York Giants: Toughest Road Ahead

Despite a rough 3-14 season in 2024, the Giants made moves to stabilize the quarterback position, adding Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart. On defense, edge rusher Abdul Carter could help improve a unit that struggled with takeaways.

The real challenge lies in the schedule, rated the toughest in the league by both FPI and DVOA. The NFC East is brutal, and games against the AFC West and NFC North add to the grind. With just a 3.3% chance to win the division and a 10.1% playoff probability, modest improvement may be the best New York can hope for.

Cleveland Browns: Building for Tomorrow

Of all the teams that finished last in their divisions, Cleveland is the least likely to climb the ranks in 2025. The Browns are projected to post the NFL’s worst record and are early favorites to pick first in the 2026 draft. Quarterback clarity is lacking, with veterans Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett likely to give way to rookies Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders.

The defense, led by Myles Garrett, offers some hope and is expected to rebound from last year’s surprising drop to 25th in DVOA. Still, even a defensive bounce-back may not offset offensive uncertainty and a brutal AFC North schedule. With just a 2.7% chance to win the division, 2025 looks more like an evaluation year.

How This All Shapes the Season

The 2025 NFL season won’t be defined by favorites alone—it’s about risers. Teams like the 49ers, Patriots, and Bears are finding new direction, while the Saints and Titans could surprise if conditions align. These eight teams aren’t rebuilding—they’re recalibrating. And in a league built on unpredictability, their rise could reshape the playoff race by January.