Finding Betting Value in the 2023 NFL Draft - Ohio Comes out on Top

The Chicago Bears have traded away the 1st overall pick after much speculation and mystery surrounding what the Bears would do with their valuable commodity. While we can’t tell you exactly who the Carolina Panthers will draft, we can tell you which player provides the most value when we examine the betting markets for the first player drafted, first wide receiver, and first defensive player to be drafted. Unsurprisingly, there’s a prevailing trend about Buckeye players that you’ll notice.

Finding Value in the Top Pick

Finding value in the top pick isn’t going to be difficult to do at all. We just need to apply some common sense and realize the shifting tides of QB evaluation. Anyone paying the Bears' asking price is likely looking for a QB, and the 2023 NFL Draft has a few young guns who could make an immediate impact next season.

Former Favorite–Alabama QB Bryce Young (+380) didn’t attend the NFL Combine, but the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner didn’t need to. The scouts all saw what he could do, and the former -190 odds suggest the oddsmakers agree with the scouts' assessment. Young doesn’t have the body type of the typical QB prospect, which could weigh heavily on where the Alabama product lands.

Current-Favorite-Ohio State QB CJ Stroud (-450) makes all the NFL throws required and ended the myth he isn’t mobile by scampering for 34 yards against Georgia. Stroud is coming off a terrific combine and is taller, heavier with better touch than Young, and the former Ohio State signal-caller could be an option for teams concerned about Young's size. Stroud has quickly shifted from underdog to heavy odds favorite due to Frank Reich’s preference for the former Buckeye.

Sleeper-Georgia Bulldogs DT Jalen Carter (+13000) has seen his stock fall due to his legal issues, but those problems could be gone by the time draft day rolls around, and if the #1 pick is prone to further trades, Carter is certainly the most talented non-QB prospect in this class 

Our Pick: Despite the low odds, CJ Stroud seems as certain of a pick as it gets at -450

Finding Value in the Top WR Taken

There could be as many as four wide receivers taken in the first round of the 2023 Draft, and as many as nine names have been referenced. Pro scouts look for wideouts who are explosive off of the line but strong enough not to get manhandled at the line of scrimmage. Ideally, a WR taken early in the draft is a player they feel can become a spectacular contributor immediately and be able to contribute well into his 2nd contract.

Favorite: Quentin Johnson is high on everyone's list, and the former TCU Horned Frog is a +140 favorite to be the 1st WR taken. Johnson is a physical receiver and is coming off a great combine. He’ll make an immediate impact and has the body type to have a long NFL career.

Mid-Favorite: Jaxon Smith-Njigba missed most of the season due to injury but was a preseason favorite to win several postseason accolades and awards. Smith-Njigba snagged 95 passes for 1606 yards and nine TDs in 2021–the Ohio State alum is another physical receiver with strong combine results, and +200 is a good price.

Sleeper: Zay Flowers was terrific for Boston College and turned some heads at the NFL combine. Flowers is on the small side, but he has a catch-and-go type explosion and could make an immediate impact as a slot receiver. +600 is a good price for a wideout gaining daily in value.

Our Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +200

Finding Value in the First Defensive Player Drafted

There’s an old saying that defense wins championships, and as many as 15 defensive players could be chosen in the 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Scouts look for players with many tackles, who generally ward off blockers better than their colleagues. Size, strength, mobility, an above-average football IQ and, most importantly, the individual needs of a team usually gets a defensive player drafted in the 1st round. At this point, it’s where we deviate from the trend of favoring OSU players, as Alabama, Georgia and Oregon tops the list.

Favorite-Will Anderson Jr is the odds-on favorite to be the first defensive player drafted, but his odds increase was in response to the legal woes of Carter. Anderson delivered at the combine as he delivered for three seasons at Alabama, and depending on who needs an edge rusher, Anderson at -230 is an expensive price.

Mid-Favorite-Jalen Carter for all the reasons described in the No. 1 pick breakdown. Had it not been for his arrest, Carter would likely be the favorite as the first defensive player took, and if he shakes the charges, +450 will be gone forever

Sleeper-Christian Gonzalez propelled himself into the top 10 discussions with a phenomenal combine, but the betting markets haven’t adjusted, and he’s +3000 to be the first defensive player drafted. Gonzalez has size, speed, strength, and the instincts to intercept four passes his sophomore year.

Our Pick: Jalen Carter +450