You can lose a draft before you make a pick. The Commanders did it at the trade table, overpaying to chase players the board did not price nearly as high.
So much rides on Jayden Daniels that the rest of the class almost grades on a curve behind him. It is not that Gray is a bad player; it is that the Commanders had louder needs to answer first. Leaving running back unaddressed is the roster risk they will have to answer for in the fall.
That is a wide receiver worth more than the slot they spent on him, plainly. They are betting Thomas proves the room right and everyone else wrong.
Bottom line, they will need several of these picks to beat their grades just to break even, and running back is still a hole.
Pick-by-Pick
R1.4
· Pick 4
· Jayden Daniels
· QB
· rank 7
In pick No. 4 they get the arm they will build around at fair value. A clean fit for the roster.
R1.7
· Pick 7
· Rome Odunze
· WR
· rank 9
In slot 7 they get a true top target. The biggest hole, addressed.
R1.27
· Pick 27
· Amarius Mims
· OT
· rank 24
In No. 27 they get an anchor for the offensive line. It fills the loudest need on the roster.
R2.4
· Pick 36
· Ja'Tavion Sanders
· TE
· rank 36
Ja'Tavion Sanders in pick 36 is exactly on the number, no argument either way. The biggest hole on the depth chart just got a whole lot smaller.
R2.8
· Pick 40
· Jordan Morgan
· OT
· rank 37
Jordan Morgan in Round 2, Pick 8 is fine work, a shade of surplus and no downside. That was the need underlined and circled, and now it is checked off.
R3.3
· Pick 67
· Payton Wilson
· LB
· rank 55
Payton Wilson at the Round 3 slot is money in the bank, a linebacker taken below his worth. Useful depth more than a marquee fix.
R3.6
· Pick 70
· Sedrick Van Pran
· C
· rank 72
A straight-up fair deal on Sedrick Van Pran at the 70th pick, value and slot in agreement. It also answers one of the loudest questions on the roster.
R3.14
· Pick 78
· Mike Sainristil
· CB
· rank 75
A reasonable price with a little left over, Mike Sainristil in the 78th overall pick. The one spot they could not leave alone, and did not.
R3.37
· Pick 100
· Brenden Rice
· WR
· rank 97
Good price on Brenden Rice in Round 3, Pick 37, a hair ahead of his grade with no real quibbles. Top of the wish list, and they did not leave without it.
R4.6
· Pick 106
· Cedric Gray
· LB
· rank 115
They zigged when the board said zag, taking Cedric Gray at linebacker with running back and interior defensive lineman open.
R5.2
· Pick 138
· Tommy Eichenberg
· LB
· rank 145
A market-rate linebacker, with the board and the slot shaking hands on Tommy Eichenberg. A luxury on a unit that was already in good shape.
R5.3
· Pick 139
· Mohamed Kamara
· DL-EDGE
· rank 133
A clean, defensible pick in the 139th pick with a little surplus value in Mohamed Kamara. A sensible fit for a spot that needed help.
R5.5
· Pick 141
· Justin Eboigbe
· DL-EDGE
· rank 148
Justin Eboigbe at the 141st overall pick is neither steal nor reach, just the going rate. It plugs a real leak on the depth chart.
R5.10
· Pick 146
· Chau Smith-Wade
· CB
· rank 127
A cornerback of that caliber at slot 146 is the definition of value, full stop. This was priority one on the needs board, and now it is handled.
R5.16
· Pick 152
· Xavier Thomas
· DE-EDGE
· rank 162
A reach on Xavier Thomas in the Round 5 slot; the board had better options right there. One more legitimate question on the roster, answered.
R7.2
· Pick 222
· Isaiah Williams
· WR
· rank 180
Steal is underselling it; Isaiah Williams at pick 222 is a heist with the alarm still ringing. It answers the question that was keeping the coaches up at night.
