2026 NFL Season Preview Predicted Standings, Super Bowl Odds & Team-by-Team Previews

The 2026 season by the numbers: four weeks in, the Rams are still the favorite and three teams are closing

Who our model loves, who it fades, and what a month of real football has changed

Updated October 21, 2026

Every projection here starts from what has actually happened. The games already played are locked into the standings at their real scores, and the rest of the 2026 season is simulated 200 times over on the real schedule. Player ability starts from 2025 per-snap grades, ages along a career curve, and blends in this season's snaps with growing weight, on an engine tuned against five past seasons before we ever pointed it at this one. No win totals go in, no hype, no reputations. It is the same approach we take to elections at Polling Forecast, where every race is simulated thousands of times and every final forecast is checked against the result.

At the top, still, sits Los Angeles, but the daylight is gone. The Rams are 2-2 after winning 24-20 in Philadelphia and the model still has them at 13-4, with a defense projected second in points allowed and Davante Adams and Puka Nacua both on pace for 1,400 yards. What has moved is the title race. The Rams' championship odds have slid from 44 percent in July to 29 percent, and Detroit at 24, Jacksonville at 15.5 and Baltimore at 12.5 now hold more between them than the favorite does. Matthew Stafford's six interceptions in four games are the reason the gap closed from the Rams' side. The 49ers are 4-0 with Brock Purdy still unsacked, two games clear with the head-to-head banked, and project to 10-7. Seattle is 3-1 at 10-7. The Rams are third in their own division and still the pick to win it.

The AFC has four teams the model takes seriously. Jacksonville has allowed 53 points in four games, owns the best defense in football by every number we produce, and projects to 12-5 with the third-best title odds in the league. Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson to an ankle for a week or two and doubled its title odds anyway, to 12.5 percent at 11-5, on a 120 passer rating before he went down. Kansas City is 4-0 and holds at 12-5, with Kenneth Walker III leading the league in rushing and a pass rush projected last in it. Detroit lost in Carolina, is 2-2 with a defense that has given up 127 points, and still projects to 13-4 with the highest-scoring offense in football at 506 points. Going the other way: Buffalo lost at home to New England and fell to 8-9 behind the Patriots in the model's AFC East, Philadelphia slid to 9-8 without Barkley, Smith and Goedert, Houston is 0-4 at 8-9 with the best pass rush in the league, and Miami has one touchdown pass in a month and sits at two wins.

The week's biggest climbers were in the NFC. Atlanta scored 45 in New Orleans in Michael Penix Jr.'s second game back and jumped to 11-6 and the NFC South favorite, with Bijan Robinson projected for 1,956 rushing yards. Dallas won a shootout in Houston and moved from nine wins to ten, taking the NFC East lead from Philadelphia in the model's eyes. The Giants are 3-1 with Jameis Winston and climbed to eight. Minnesota is 4-0 having allowed 51 points, the fewest in the league, and the model still has the Vikings at 9-8 because the offense projects 21st. Read the team pages, check our numbers against the market, and decide for yourself.

How this works: the records, odds, and stats below combine the games already played, locked at their real scores, with the remaining schedule simulated 200 times over. They are not a single prediction, and not a guarantee. Use the tabs above for the full standings, Super Bowl odds, team stats, per-team breakdowns, and player leaders.