The Jets lost in New England and are 2-4, and our model has trimmed New York to eight wins with the defense still the best thing about it
Updated
The Jets beat Cleveland 17-12 at home and lost 26-19 in New England, are 2-4, and have lost four of five since the opening win in Tennessee. When we ran the rest of the season New York came out at 8-9 with a 27 percent playoff chance, down from 9-8 and 51 percent two weeks ago and from 9.3 wins and 61 percent in July. The slide is modest for a team that has lost four of five, because the model still has the Jets' defense graded as the third-best in football, and a third-best defense does not usually sit at 2-4 for long.
The defense has allowed 122 points in six games and projects to allow 310, third in the league. Minkah Fitzpatrick projects for 4.4 interceptions, down from 5.3 but still the second-highest individual projection in football. David Bailey has climbed from six projected sacks to over eight. Kingsley Enagbare has slipped from nine and a half to under eight. Jamien Sherwood's tackle projection has gone from 32 to 117 as the linebacker has taken over the middle. Dane Belton projects for 90 tackles and a sack. The team projects for 42 sacks, eleventh, and under ten interceptions, 26th, which is the one number that has slipped. The unit has held every opponent to 26 or fewer, and the Patriots game was the first in which it gave up more than 23 since Detroit.
The offense is the reason the record is what it is, and it is a careful offense rather than a broken one. Geno Smith is 122 of 177 for 1,336 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception, a 102 rating, and has been sacked 19 times, which is the number that explains the scoring. Our model projects him for 3,793 yards and 20 touchdowns against six interceptions, with the rating projection up from 97 to 100. Garrett Wilson projects for 90 catches and 1,133 yards. Breece Hall has missed time with the quad and did not practice on Wednesday; his projection has dropped from 950 rushing yards to 776, and Braelon Allen's has climbed from 297 to 564. Omar Cooper Jr. is back from injured reserve and projects for 41 catches. Kenyon Sadiq's projection has dropped from 54 catches to 37. The unit projects for 329 points, 24th in the league, and the Jets have scored 112 in six games.
The division has a two-team race at the top and the Jets two games off it. Buffalo is 5-1 and projects for ten wins. New England is 4-2 and projects for ten with the head-to-head over the Jets already won. Miami is 0-5 and projects for two and a half. When we ran the rest of the season New York finished third in the AFC East in most simulated years and won it in very few, which is the record catching up with a roster the model still rates highly.
The next month is the softest stretch of the season and the last chance to make the projection matter. Miami at home at 78 percent, Las Vegas at home at 52, a trip to Kansas City at 32, and Buffalo at home at 58. When we ran that stretch the Jets went 2-2 more often than 3-1, and the Dolphins and Bills games are the two the model expects New York to win. A 5-5 record entering the second week of November, with two division wins banked, would put eight wins on schedule and the wild card race back in view.
The fortnight in detail: a 17-12 home win over Cleveland in which the Jets defense held the Browns to twelve and the offense did just enough, and a 26-19 loss in New England in which the Patriots scored more on the Jets than anyone had since Detroit in Week 3. Nineteen sacks allowed in six games is the number that explains the offense, and it is tied with Pittsburgh for third-most in the league behind Cleveland's 24 and the Chargers' 21. Geno Smith has one interception and a 102 rating and the Jets have scored 112 points, which is not a sentence that usually fits together, and the sacks are why it does. Hall's quad is the other factor. He has missed time and did not practice on Wednesday, and Allen's rushing projection has nearly doubled as a result. The defense has not changed. It is third in the league by projection and has held every opponent to 26 or fewer. What moves the number from here is the next four games, three of them at home against teams the model has below the Jets. Miami and Las Vegas at home are games the model expects New York to win. Buffalo at home in Week 10 is the one that decides whether the Jets are a wild card team or an eight-win one, and the model gives them 58 percent in it.
The matchup record is a team that has lost the close games against good teams and won the ones against bad ones. We gave the Jets 76 percent in Tennessee and they won, 42 against Green Bay and they lost by three, 32 in Detroit and they lost by seven, 26 in Chicago and they lost by eleven, 78 against Cleveland and they won, and 38 in New England and they lost by seven. Two wins from nearly three expected is a win under, and all four losses were to teams the model had ahead of New York. The market opened the Jets at nine wins. Our model sat on it in July and sits a win under it now. The lean has flipped, and the reason is 19 sacks and 112 points in six games from an offense the defense keeps bailing out.
