Las Vegas has lost three straight by a combined 34 points, and our model has the Raiders down to eight wins with the playoff odds at 13.5 percent
Updated
Las Vegas lost 45-17 in New England and 33-30 at home to Buffalo, its third straight defeat after a 3-0 start, and the Raiders are 3-3. When we ran the rest of the season they came out at 8-9 with a 13.5 percent playoff chance, down from 9-8 and 54.5 percent two weeks ago. The model had Las Vegas at six wins in July, moved it to nine after the 3-0 start, and has now given back a win and most of the playoff odds. The three losses came against the three best teams the Raiders have played, and the margin in New England was the reason the playoff number fell by so much.
The passing game is still the reason to watch and it has not changed. Kirk Cousins is 135 of 213 for 1,582 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, a 98 rating, and projects for 4,421 yards and 31 touchdowns, up from 30. Brock Bowers projects for 76 catches, 981 yards and nine touchdowns, all up from two weeks ago. Tre Tucker projects for 87 catches and 1,218 yards. Jalen Nailor has slipped to 42 catches. The running game is the problem it was in September. Ashton Jeanty projects for 731 rushing yards, down from 843, and 61 catches, which is the model treating him as a receiver who runs. Mike Washington Jr. projects for 418 yards. The unit projects for 401 points, ninth in the league, unchanged in total.
The defense is the reason the projection moved and the Patriots game is the reason the defense moved. Las Vegas projects to allow 414 points, 27th in the league, up from 376 and 22nd two weeks ago, and the 45 in New England is where most of that came from. Maxx Crosby projects for nearly 14 sacks, down from 15.5. Kwity Paye for ten. Malcolm Koonce for four. The team projects for 47 sacks, sixth in football, which is still elite. The back end is where the model has given up ground. Hezekiah Masses projects for three interceptions and 17 tackles, down from 35 tackles, which is the model expecting him to play less. Nakobe Dean projects for 114 tackles. The Raiders have allowed 162 points in six games, 27 a game.
The division is Kansas City's and the Raiders are third in the model's order. The Chiefs are 5-0 and project for 13 wins with the head-to-head over Las Vegas banked. Denver is 4-2 and projects for nine. The Chargers are 0-6 and project for three. When we ran the rest of the season the Raiders finished third in the AFC West more often than second, which is a change from two weeks ago, and the 13.5 percent playoff chance is entirely a wild card number.
The next month is the Rams at home at 24 percent, a trip to the Jets at 48, a trip to San Francisco at 44, and Seattle at home at 40. When we ran that stretch Las Vegas went 1-3 more often than 2-2, and the model has the Raiders as an underdog in all four. A 4-6 record entering the second week of November would put eight wins on schedule and the playoffs out of reach barring a run through December.
The fortnight in detail: a 45-17 loss in New England in which the Raiders gave up 45 to a Patriots offense that had scored 20 or fewer in three of its four games, and a 33-30 home loss to Buffalo in which the offense scored 30 and the defense gave up 33. The New England game is the one that moved the projection. A defense that gives up 45 to Drake Maye is not a 22nd-ranked defense, and the model moved it to 27th in one run. Crosby's sack projection fell nearly two and the team's fell from fourth to sixth, which is still an elite pass rush, but the coverage behind it was the problem in both games and the model has priced it. Masses' tackle projection halving is the model expecting the rookie corner to play less. The offense did not move. Cousins' touchdown projection rose one, Bowers' rose one and his yardage rose 111, and the points-for projection held at 401. Jeanty's rushing projection fell 112, which is the model watching a 3.4 yards per carry average for six weeks and believing it. What moves the number from here is the next month, in which the model has the Raiders as an underdog in all four games. The Rams at home at 24 percent is close to a loss in the model's eyes. The Jets and 49ers on the road and Seattle at home are all under 50. A 4-6 record entering the second week of November would put eight wins on schedule and the playoffs out of reach.
The matchup record has come back to earth. We gave Las Vegas 46 percent against Miami, 20 against the Chargers, 52 in New Orleans, 30 against Kansas City, 52 in New England and 56 against Buffalo. Three wins from about two and a half expected is still slightly ahead, but the two losses in a row came in games the model had the Raiders as the favorite, and the New England margin was the largest of the season against them. The market opened Las Vegas at six and a half wins. Our model sat a half-win under it in July, two and a half over it two weeks ago, and a win and a half over it now. The lean is the quarterback and the pass rush, still. The secondary and the running game are why it has shrunk.
