NFL Week 7 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 7

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Oct 22

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 54%
23
CHI logo CHI 46%
20
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye241 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.0 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -3 O/U 50.5 vs Model NE -3.7
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 3.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NE +3 +6.7 pts
The sim sides with Patriots: a 3.7-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (23-20).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 45 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 25

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 58%
22
NO logo NO 42%
17
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers268 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave6.9 rec, 95 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET PIT -3 O/U 44.5 vs Model PIT -5.4
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 5.4
BET VALUE
Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 5.4 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 22-17).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kaden Elliss (Saints) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jaquan Brisker, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 52%
22
ATL logo ATL 48%
22
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson88 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Drake London Drake London7.0 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SF -3 O/U 49.5 vs Model ATL -0.7
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 0.7
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 48% of them, by 0.7 on average (22-22).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Jake Matthews (Falcons) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 57% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 34%
21
BLT logo BLT 66%
24
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow279 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins Tee Higgins5.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BLT -1.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model BLT -3.7
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 3.7
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 66% of them, by 3.7 on average (24-21).
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Cam Jurgens (Ravens) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 57% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 6.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TB logo TB 20%
16
CAR logo CAR 80%
27
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young277 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving Bucky Irving54 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan6.3 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET CAR -3.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model CAR -11.1
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 11.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CAR -3.5 +7.6 pts
The model leans Panthers by 11.1, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 27-16).
The Panthers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.5 sacks a game), with Jaelan Phillips (2.7 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Panthers' line should hold up: the Buccaneers win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 23.6 pressures a game (Rueben Bain Jr. (1.5 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 18%
16
HST logo HST 82%
27
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud281 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery32 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins6.3 rec, 93 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET HST -10 O/U 43 vs Model HST -10.9
Sim Prediction: Texans by 10.9
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 10.9 (27-16).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Jevon Holland (Giants) - winner: Jevon Holland, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 34%
18
MIN logo MIN 66%
22
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones243 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones Aaron Jones65 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Josh Downs Josh Downs5.5 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET MIN -6.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model MIN -4.0
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 4.0
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Vikings win 66% of them, by 4.0 on average (22-18).
Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Will Fries (Vikings) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 22%
13
NYJ logo NYJ 78%
20
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith224 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall64 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson4.5 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET NYJ -5.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model NYJ -6.9
Sim Prediction: Jets by 6.9
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Jets: a 6.9-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (20-13).
Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 57% of reps for 0.6 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 66%
14
TEN logo TEN 34%
13
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward194 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins32 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston Denzel Boston4.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET CLV -2 O/U 37.5 vs Model CLV -1.5
Sim Prediction: Browns by 1.5
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Browns: a 1.5-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (14-13).
Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Denzel Ward (Browns) - winner: Denzel Ward, holding him to 36 yds on just 39% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 42%
18
ARZ logo ARZ 58%
19
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett272 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Wilson Michael Wilson8.8 rec, 107 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DEN -4.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model ARZ -1.6
Sim Prediction: Cardinals by 1.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ARZ +4.5 +6.1 pts
Run it 50 times and Cardinals win 58% of them, by 1.6 on average (19-18).
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Jayden Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 59% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 4.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Red Murdock, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 48%
24
DET logo DET 52%
28
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love309 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.5 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET DET -3 O/U 53.5 vs Model DET -4.1
Sim Prediction: Lions by 4.1
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Lions: a 4.1-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (28-24).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Javon Bullard (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Jordan Morgan (Packers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 5.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 76%
30
LV logo LV 24%
19
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford299 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams72 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua8.0 rec, 106 yds, 0.8 TD
MARKET LA -4 O/U 48.5 vs Model LA -10.4
Sim Prediction: Rams by 10.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -4 +6.4 pts
The sim sides with Rams: a 10.4-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (30-19).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 51 yds on just 35% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.8 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 80%
23
SEA logo SEA 20%
15
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold223 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III84 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.1 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET SEA -2.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model KC -8.5
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 8.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean KC +2.5 +11.0 pts
Run it 50 times and Chiefs win 80% of them, by 8.5 on average (23-15).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Nick Bolton (Chiefs) - winner: Nick Bolton, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 26

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 44%
21
PHI logo PHI 56%
22
PASS Tanner McKee Tanner McKee276 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith5.9 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DAL -4.5 O/U 44 vs Model PHI -0.8
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 0.8
BET VALUE
Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 0.8 and winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).
Jonathan Greenard (Eagles) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Greenard, winning 56% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 10.2 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →