NFL Week 5 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

2026 Season · Week 5

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

Thursday, Oct 8

Thu 8:15pm

PROJ

TB 28%

DAL 72%

PASS

Dak Prescott249 pass yds, 2.0 TD

RUSH

Javonte Williams68 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

CeeDee Lamb5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.6 TD

MARKET DAL -3.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model DAL -8.3

Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 8.3

BET VALUE

The sim sides with Cowboys: a 8.3-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (26-17).

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Reddy Steward (Cowboys) - winner: Reddy Steward, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.

Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 11

Sun 9:30am

PROJ

PHI 66%

JAX 34%

PASS

Trevor Lawrence210 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Saquon Barkley60 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Makai Lemon4.6 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD

MARKET PHI -2.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model PHI -3.5

Sim Prediction: Eagles by 3.5

BET VALUE

The model leans Eagles by 3.5, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).

Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 32 yds on just 33% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jihaad Campbell, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - nowhere to run.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

CIN 76%

MIA 24%

PASS

Joe Burrow338 pass yds, 2.7 TD

RUSH

De'Von Achane108 rush yds, 1.1 TD

REC

Ja'Marr Chase8.1 rec, 106 yds, 1.0 TD

MARKET CIN -5.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model CIN -7.8

Sim Prediction: Bengals by 7.8

BET VALUE

Across 50 simulations, Bengals come out on top 76% of the time by an average of 7.8 (30-22).

De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: De'Von Achane, 7.5 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.

Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 33 yds on just 34% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a read taken away.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

LV 26%

NE 74%

PASS

Drake Maye257 pass yds, 1.7 TD

RUSH

Rhamondre Stevenson66 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

A.J. Brown6.0 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD

MARKET NE -8.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model NE -7.3

Sim Prediction: Patriots by 7.3

BET VALUE

Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 74% of the time by an average of 7.3 (26-19).

Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 32 yds on just 33% open, 1.5 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.5 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

MIN 36%

NO 64%

PASS

Tyler Shough248 pass yds, 1.3 TD

RUSH

Travis Etienne Jr.48 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Chris Olave6.7 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD

MARKET MIN -1.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model NO -0.9

Sim Prediction: Saints by 0.9

BET VALUE

Across 50 simulations, Saints come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 0.9 (20-19).

Chase Young (Saints) vs Brian O'Neill (Vikings) - winner: Chase Young, winning 55% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

CLV 24%

NYJ 76%

PASS

Geno Smith185 pass yds, 0.9 TD

RUSH

Breece Hall68 rush yds, 0.6 TD

REC

Garrett Wilson5.5 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD

MARKET NYJ -1.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model NYJ -9.0

Sim Prediction: Jets by 9.0

BET VALUE

VALUE Lean NYJ -1.5 +7.5 pts

The sim sides with Jets: a 9.0-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (20-11).

Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Mykal Walker (Jets) - winner: Mykal Walker, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.

Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Nahshon Wright (Jets) - winner: Nahshon Wright, holding him to 22 yds on just 38% open, 0.4 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

IND 62%

PIT 38%

PASS

Aaron Rodgers232 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

Jonathan Taylor79 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Alec Pierce5.1 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD

MARKET PIT -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model IND -3.0

Sim Prediction: Colts by 3.0

BET VALUE

VALUE Lean IND +2.5 +5.5 pts

Colts are the pick here, favoured by 3.0 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 44 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

HST 74%

TEN 26%

PASS

C.J. Stroud236 pass yds, 1.6 TD

RUSH

David Montgomery64 rush yds, 0.6 TD

REC

Nico Collins5.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD

MARKET HST -3.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model HST -11.9

Sim Prediction: Texans by 11.9

BET VALUE

VALUE Lean HST -3.5 +8.4 pts

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 11.9 and winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 25-13).

Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Keylan Rutledge (Texans) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.7 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.

David Montgomery (Texans) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: David Montgomery, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

NYG 54%

WAS 46%

PASS

Jaxson Dart241 pass yds, 1.5 TD

RUSH

Cam Skattebo57 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Malik Nabers5.5 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD

MARKET WAS -2.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model NYG -0.9

Sim Prediction: Giants by 0.9

BET VALUE

Run it 50 times and Giants win 54% of them, by 0.9 on average (22-21).

Malik Nabers (Giants) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Malik Nabers, open on 61% of routes for 5.9/9.1, 60 yds a game - the edge through the air.

Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: Terry McLaurin, open on 62% of routes for 5.5/6.7, 54 yds a game - open at will.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:05pm

PROJ

DEN 58%

LAC 42%

PASS

Bo Nix274 pass yds, 1.8 TD

RUSH

Omarion Hampton57 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Jaylen Waddle5.9 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD

MARKET LAC -2.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model DEN -3.7

Sim Prediction: Broncos by 3.7

BET VALUE

VALUE Lean DEN +2.5 +6.2 pts

Across 50 simulations, Broncos come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 3.7 (23-20).

Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Taurean York (Broncos) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.

Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 25 yds on just 36% open, 0.3 INT a game, - a window that never opens.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

DET 84%

ARZ 16%

PASS

Jared Goff262 pass yds, 1.7 TD

RUSH

Jahmyr Gibbs90 rush yds, 1.2 TD

REC

Amon-Ra St. Brown6.3 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD

MARKET DET -8.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model DET -11.5

Sim Prediction: Lions by 11.5

BET VALUE

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 11.5 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 27-16).

Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 55% of reps for 4.6 sacks and 11.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.9 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

CHI 32%

GB 68%

PASS

Jordan Love245 pass yds, 1.6 TD

RUSH

Josh Jacobs63 rush yds, 0.6 TD

REC

Rome Odunze5.5 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD

MARKET GB -3 O/U 49.5 vs Model GB -4.1

Sim Prediction: Packers by 4.1

BET VALUE

Packers are the pick here, favoured by 4.1 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).

Christian Watson (Packers) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 58% of routes for 8.0/9.6, 71 yds a game - separation all day.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

SF 28%

SEA 72%

PASS

Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Zach Charbonnet76 rush yds, 0.8 TD

REC

Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.9 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD

MARKET SEA -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model SEA -9.3

Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 9.3

BET VALUE

VALUE Lean SEA -3.5 +5.8 pts

Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 9.3 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 28-19).

Mike Evans (49ers) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 34 yds on just 37% open, 1.0 INT a game, - shut down all game.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 6.7/7.8, 61 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.

Full breakdown →

Sun 8:20pm

PROJ

BLT 38%

ATL 62%

PASS

Michael Penix Jr.200 pass yds, 1.0 TD

RUSH

Derrick Henry82 rush yds, 0.8 TD

REC

Zay Flowers4.9 rec, 68 yds, 0.5 TD

MARKET BLT -4.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model ATL -2.3

Sim Prediction: Falcons by 2.3

BET VALUE

VALUE Lean ATL +4.5 +6.8 pts

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 62% of them, by 2.3 on average (22-20).

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.2 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 12

Mon 8:15pm

PROJ

BUF 12%

LA 88%

PASS

Matthew Stafford309 pass yds, 2.5 TD

RUSH

Kyren Williams79 rush yds, 0.7 TD

REC

Puka Nacua6.5 rec, 93 yds, 0.6 TD

MARKET LA -3 O/U 53.5 vs Model LA -18.0

Sim Prediction: Rams by 18.0

BET VALUE

VALUE Lean LA -3 +15.0 pts

The model leans Rams by 18.0, winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 36-18).

DJ Moore (Bills) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 53 yds on just 37% open, 1.2 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

Full breakdown →