Miami is 0-5 after a bye and has scored 70 points, and our model has the Dolphins at two and a half wins with the quarterback the whole story
Updated
Miami lost 31-24 at home to Cincinnati, scored its most points of the season doing it, then took its bye at 0-5. The Dolphins have scored 70 points in five games and have not led in the fourth quarter of any of them. When we ran the rest of the season Miami came out at 3-14, averaging two and a half wins, with no playoff chance, which is a fraction above where it sat two weeks ago and four and a half wins below the seven the summer sim projected. The slide happened in September. The model has had nothing to add since.
The offense is the problem and the quarterback is most of it. Malik Willis is 73 of 130 for 849 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions, a passer rating of 68, and has been sacked 14 times. Our model projects him for 3,261 yards and twelve touchdowns against 14 interceptions, which would be the worst line of any full-time starter in the league by a distance. Ollie Gordon II has taken over the backfield and projects for 880 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, up from 713 and five, with De'Von Achane gone for the year. Malik Washington projects for 72 catches and 911 yards. Caleb Douglas has dropped to 48 catches. The unit projects for 250 points, 30th in the league, and only Tennessee and the Chargers are lower.
The defense has been better than the record and the Bengals game was the exception. Miami projects to allow 435 points, 30th in the league, which reflects a roster the model expects to wear down rather than the 132 it has actually given up in five games. Joshua Uche projects for twelve sacks. Chop Robinson has climbed from eight and a half to nine. Zach Sieler projects for five. Jordyn Brooks' tackle projection has jumped from 44 to 131 as the linebacker has returned to full time, and Jacob Rodriguez's has dropped from 131 to 119 as a result. Dante Trader Jr.'s interception projection has gone from one to nearly two and a half. The team projects for under 35 sacks, 30th.
The division is the rest of the AFC East's business. Buffalo is 5-1 and projects for ten wins. New England is 4-2 and projects for ten. The Jets are 2-4 and project for eight. Miami has not played any of them yet and plays all six division games from here, and when we ran the rest of the season the Dolphins finished last in the AFC East in every simulated year. The two and a half wins the model projects come from somewhere in those six games more often than anywhere else.
The next month offers nothing easy. A trip to the Jets at 22 percent, New England at home at 24, Detroit at home at four, and a trip to Indianapolis at 30. When we ran that stretch Miami went 1-3 and 0-4 about equally often, and the Detroit game is as close to a certain loss as the model produces. An 0-9 record entering the second week of November is the most likely path.
The Cincinnati game was the best the Dolphins have played and they lost it 31-24, which tells you most of what you need to know. the offense scored 24, its most of the season, and the defense gave up 31 to a Bengals offense that had scored 27 and 17 in its two previous games. That is the pattern: when the offense shows up, the defense does not, and when the defense shows up, the offense scores ten. The model has priced both halves at what six weeks says they are. Gordon's rushing projection has climbed 167 yards in two weeks, which is the model expecting him to be the lead back for the rest of the season and the one line on the offense moving the right way. Willis' touchdown projection rose one and his interception projection rose three, which is the model watching the Cincinnati game and seeing both halves of it. The defense's points-allowed projection dropped five, from 440 to 435, which is nothing. What moves the number from here is almost nothing in the next month. The Jets, Patriots, Lions and Colts are all games the model has Miami as a clear underdog in, and the two and a half wins the model projects are mostly in December, against a schedule that softens after Thanksgiving.
The matchup record is a team that has been outmatched rather than unlucky. We gave Miami 54 percent in Las Vegas, 34 in San Francisco, 20 against Kansas City, 26 in Minnesota and 16 against Cincinnati. Zero wins from one and a half expected is a modest underperformance, and the only game the model had the Dolphins favored in was the opener. The market opened Miami at eight and a half wins. Our model sat a win and a half under it in July and sits six under it now. The slide is about a quarterback with two touchdown passes in five games, a running back lost for the season, and an offensive line that has given up 14 sacks. The defense has been competent. It has had nothing to protect.
