Green Bay beat Chicago by 24 and Dallas by ten, and our model has the Packers at eleven wins with Jacobs back and Parsons still waiting
Updated
Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 and Dallas 23-13 at home, is 4-2, and has won three of four. When we ran the rest of the season the Packers came out at 11-6 with a 77.5 percent playoff chance and an eight percent title chance, up from 8-9, 17.5 percent and zero two weeks ago and above the 9.9 wins the summer sim projected. That is a two and a half win move in a fortnight, the largest upward move in the league in this run, and it has three parts: two wins by double digits, a model that now leans harder on this season's snaps, and Josh Jacobs coming off the commissioner's exempt list.
Jacobs has not played yet and said this week he does not know whether he will play in Detroit on Sunday, with the league's investigation ongoing and a suspension still possible. Our model has him for 123 carries and 392 yards across the rest of the season, which is the model expecting him to play most of the remaining games but not all of them, and MarShawn Lloyd's projection has dropped from 329 yards to 184 as a result. Micah Parsons remains on the physically unable to perform list and was still not practicing as of October 19. The passing game has carried the team without either of them. Jordan Love is 135 of 226 for 1,684 yards with eleven touchdowns and four interceptions, a 92 rating, and projects for 4,953 yards and 33 touchdowns, up from 4,669 and 30. Christian Watson has 538 yards and six touchdowns and projects for 1,655 and 13. Matthew Golden has 501 yards and projects for 86 catches and 1,358. Tucker Kraft for 69 catches. The unit projects for 392 points, 13th in the league, up from 357 and 18th.
The defense is where the model moved most and the Bears and Cowboys games are why. Green Bay has allowed 20 points in two weeks and projects to allow 354 points, 14th in the league, down from 400 and 26th two weeks ago, a 46-point move that is the largest defensive upgrade of any team in this run. The Packers project for 17.6 interceptions, the most in the league, up from 13.2 and eighth. Xavier McKinney's interception projection has gone from two and a half to over four. Javon Bullard projects for three and a half and 110 tackles. Lukas Van Ness projects for 11.5 sacks, down from nearly 16. Ty'Ron Hopper's sack projection has gone from zero to over six as the linebacker has been used as a rusher. Edgerrin Cooper projects for over three sacks and 83 tackles. The team projects for 46 sacks, eighth.
The division is the toughest in football and the Packers are second in it by projection. Detroit is 3-2 and projects for 12.5 wins as the title favorite. Minnesota is 5-0 and projects for ten with the head-to-head over Green Bay banked. Chicago is 4-2 and projects for nine with the head-to-head lost to the Packers. When we ran the rest of the season Green Bay won the NFC North in a meaningful minority of simulated years, behind Detroit, and the Lions game on Sunday at 48 percent is the one that sets the direction for the rest of the year.
The next month is the Lions on the road at 48 percent, Carolina at home at 70, a trip to New England at 76, and Minnesota at home at 74. When we ran that stretch the Packers went 3-1 more often than anything else, and the model has Green Bay favored in three of the four. A 7-3 record entering the second week of November, with Parsons presumably back by then, would push the projection toward twelve.
The fortnight in detail: a 31-7 home win over Chicago in which the defense held the Bears to seven, and a 23-13 home win over Dallas in which the defense held Prescott's offense to 13. Both were games the model had as coin flips, and both were won by double digits, which is why the projection moved two and a half wins rather than one. The defense did most of it. The points-allowed projection fell 46 in two weeks, from 400 to 354, the largest defensive upgrade of any team in this run, and the interception projection rose from 13 to 17.6, the most in the league. McKinney's interception projection going from two and a half to over four is the single largest move on that side. Hopper's sack projection going from zero to over six is the model finding a pass rusher it did not know it had. Jacobs coming off the exempt list is priced at 123 carries, which is the model expecting him to play most of the rest of the season but not all of it with the league's investigation still open. Parsons is not in the projection and will not be until he practices. What moves the number from here is Sunday in Detroit at 48 percent. Win and the Packers are 5-2 with the head-to-head over the Lions and an eleven-win projection that looks low. Lose and the model's order in the NFC North, Detroit first, holds.
The matchup record has been close to the projections. We gave Green Bay 64 percent in Minnesota, 58 against the Jets, 40 against Atlanta, 70 in Tampa Bay, 48 against Chicago and 50 against Dallas. Four wins from a third over three expected is two-thirds of a win ahead, and the two most recent wins were the two the model had as coin flips. The market opened Green Bay at ten wins. Our model sat on it in July, two under it two weeks ago, and a win over it now. The lean is the passing game, which has been very good for six weeks, and a defense that has allowed 20 points in two. Jacobs is in the projection now. Parsons is not, and the day he is the number moves again.
