Dallas lost at home to Tampa Bay and in Green Bay, and our model has cut the Cowboys from ten wins to eight
Updated
Dallas lost 24-16 at home to Tampa Bay as a 76 percent favorite, then lost 23-13 in Green Bay, and the Cowboys are 2-4 after a fortnight in which the offense that had carried them scored 29 points in two games. When we ran the rest of the season Dallas came out at 8-9 with a 40 percent playoff chance and one and a half percent title odds, down from 10-7 and 69.5 percent two weeks ago. The model had the Cowboys at ten and a half wins in July. It has them at eight now, and the two weeks that produced the drop were the two in which the quarterback stopped looking like the one the model had been pricing.
Dak Prescott is 163 of 246 for 1,639 yards with ten touchdowns and five interceptions, a 90 rating, and the model has cut his season projection from 4,531 yards and 32 touchdowns at a 105 rating to 4,745 yards, 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions at 95.5. The yardage went up and the efficiency went down, which is a quarterback throwing more and getting less. CeeDee Lamb has 48 catches for 577 yards and four touchdowns and projects for 118 catches and 1,481 yards. George Pickens has climbed from 74 catches to 88. Ryan Flournoy from 49 to 58. Jake Ferguson projects for seven touchdowns. Javonte Williams projects for 861 rushing yards and twelve touchdowns. The unit projects for 404 points, eighth in the league, down from 428 and fifth, and the Cowboys have scored 151 in six games.
The defense is still the problem and the model has stopped giving it the benefit of the doubt it gave two weeks ago. Dallas projects to allow 390 points, 23rd in the league, up from 368 and 21st. The pass rush is the worst in football by projection: 30.8 sacks, last in the league, with Rashan Gary down from twelve projected sacks to ten and Donovan Ezeiruaku from seven to under five. The Cowboys also project for under eight interceptions, 31st. Caleb Downs projects for 122 tackles and nearly three picks, which is the one line on the defense that keeps climbing. DaRon Bland's tackle projection has gone from 55 to 85, the sign of a corner being targeted. The unit has allowed 159 points in six games.
The division is open and the Cowboys are second in it by projection. Philadelphia is 2-4 and projects for nine wins without Jalen Hurts, with Tanner McKee starting. The Giants are 3-2-1 and project for six with J.J. McCarthy taking over. Washington is 1-4-1 and projects for five. Dallas is 2-4 and projects for eight, and when we ran the rest of the season the Eagles won the NFC East more often than the Cowboys despite the quarterback situation, because the model still has Philadelphia's defense as a top-ten unit and Dallas's as a bottom-ten one. The Eagles game in Philadelphia this week at 44 percent is the one that decides who is second.
The next month is a trip to Philadelphia at 44 percent, Arizona at home at 78, a trip to Indianapolis at 66, and San Francisco at home at 50. When we ran that stretch Dallas went 2-2 more often than anything else, and the Cardinals and Colts games are the two the model expects the Cowboys to win. A 4-6 record entering the second week of November would put eight wins on schedule and the playoff coin flip the model is quoting would start to look generous.
The fortnight in detail: a 24-16 home loss to Tampa Bay in which the Cowboys offense scored 16 against a Buccaneers defense the model has 26th, and a 23-13 loss in Green Bay in which Dallas scored 13. Twenty-nine points in two games from an offense the model had fifth in the league is the number that moved the projection, and it moved it two wins. Prescott's rating projection fell nearly ten points in a fortnight, the largest single drop for any starter in this run, and his interception projection nearly doubled from seven to 13. The model's new weighting had a lot to do with that: six weeks of a 90 rating against a 2025 season near 105, and the 2026 version now carries three-quarters of the vote. The defense moved too, from 368 projected points allowed to 390, and the pass rush projection fell from 34 sacks to under 31, which is last in the league. Gary's sack projection fell two. Ezeiruaku's fell two and a half. What moves the number from here is Philadelphia on the road this week at 44 percent. The Eagles are playing Tanner McKee. A win puts Dallas at 3-4 with the tiebreaker over the division's other eight-win projection and makes the Cowboys the NFC East favorite again. A loss puts them a game behind the Eagles with the head-to-head gone.
The matchup record is a team that has lost four games it was supposed to win and one it was not. We gave Dallas 80 percent against the Giants, 78 against Washington, 34 against Baltimore, 50 in Houston, 76 against Tampa Bay and 50 in Green Bay. Two wins from two-thirds over three expected is a win and two-thirds under, and two of the four losses came in games the model had the Cowboys as the favorite with a third a coin flip. The market opened Dallas at nine and a half wins. Our model sat a win over it in July, a half-win over it two weeks ago, and a win and a half under it now. The lean is about a defense with the worst pass rush in football and an offense that has scored 29 points in two weeks.
