New England beat the Raiders by 28 and the Jets by seven, and our model has the Patriots at ten wins and a fraction behind Buffalo for the division
Updated
New England beat Las Vegas 45-17 and the Jets 26-19 at home, is 4-2, and has won three of four since the opening loss in Seattle. When we ran the rest of the season the Patriots came out at 10-7 with a 73 percent playoff chance, up from 9-8 and 57.5 percent two weeks ago and a full win above the nine the summer sim projected. The Patriots and Bills now project within a third of a win of each other, and the Patriots hold the head-to-head. That is a division race, and two weeks ago the model had New England as the favorite in it. Buffalo's two road wins have taken that back.
The offense has found a level and the model has priced it. Drake Maye is 117 of 183 for 1,463 yards with eleven touchdowns and seven interceptions, a 93 rating, and our model projects him for 4,057 yards and 27 touchdowns against 16 interceptions, up from 21 and 19 two weeks ago. The interception projection is still the highest of any starter, but it has come down three in a fortnight, and the rating projection has climbed from 87 to 95.5. A.J. Brown is back from injured reserve and projects for 57 catches and 755 yards across the rest of the season, up from 17 and 228 when he was still out. Demario Douglas has climbed to 52 catches and five touchdowns. Efton Chism III's projection has gone from five catches to 46 as the rookie has carved out a role. Rhamondre Stevenson projects for 838 rushing yards. The unit projects for 371 points, 18th in the league, up from 341 and 20th.
The defense is the reason the model has believed in New England since September, and the grade has held. The Patriots project to allow 333 points, ninth in the league, and have given up 113 in six games. Elijah Ponder has six sacks and his projection has jumped from under nine to over 13, the biggest move on the roster. Dre'Mont Jones projects for nine. Christian Barmore for nearly six from the interior. The team projects for 47 sacks, fifth in football, up from eighth. Robert Spillane projects for 106 tackles and Christian Elliss has gone from a 30-tackle projection to 92 as the linebacker rotation has settled. Craig Woodson's interception projection has dropped from over three to two.
The division is a two-team race with the Jets on the edge of it. Buffalo is 5-1 and projects for ten wins. The Jets are 2-4 and project for eight. Miami is 0-5 and projects for two and a half. When we ran the rest of the season New England won the AFC East slightly less often than Buffalo, which is the record talking, and the two teams finished within a game of each other in most simulated years. The Patriots have the better defense by a distance. The Bills have the better offense by a distance. The model has them even.
The next month is two road games the model likes and two it does not. A trip to Chicago on Thursday at 54 percent, a trip to Miami at 76, Green Bay at home at 24, and a trip to Detroit at 26. When we ran that stretch New England went 2-2 more often than anything else, and the Packers and Lions games are the two the model treats as losses. A 6-4 record entering the second week of November would keep ten wins on schedule.
The fortnight in detail: a 45-17 home win over Las Vegas in which the Patriots scored their most points of the season by a distance, and a 26-19 home win over the Jets in which the defense gave up 19 to an offense that had scored 17 and twelve in its previous two games. The Raiders game is the one that moved the offense's grade. The model had New England at 341 projected points two weeks ago; it has them at 371 now, and Maye's touchdown projection rose six while his interception projection fell three, which is the kind of two-way move that only happens when the model has decided a quarterback has changed rather than had a good week. A.J. Brown's return is the other half of it. The model now has him for 57 catches across the remaining games, and the receiving room has gone from Doubs and Hollins to Doubs, Hollins, Brown, Douglas and Chism, which is a real set of options for a quarterback who has mostly had two. What moves the number from here is Thursday in Chicago, where the Bears are without Sweat and Odeyingbo, and then Green Bay and Detroit in consecutive weeks in November. The model has the Patriots as a clear underdog in both of those. Win one and ten wins holds. The division is decided by whether Buffalo loses to Baltimore and Minnesota.
The matchup record is a team that has outplayed the projections modestly and consistently. We gave New England 34 percent in Seattle, 50 against Pittsburgh, 38 in Jacksonville, 54 in Buffalo, 48 against Las Vegas and 62 against the Jets. Four wins from under three expected is a full win ahead, and the two losses were the two games the model had the Patriots as clear underdogs in. The market opened New England at eight and a half wins. Our model sat a half-win over it in July and sits a win and a half over it now. The lean is the defense and a quarterback whose interceptions have slowed. The Bills' offense is the thing standing between the Patriots and the division.
