Carolina beat Philadelphia on the road and is 3-2, and our model has moved the Panthers to ten and a half wins and the NFC South favorite
Updated
Carolina took its bye, then went to Philadelphia and won 25-14, and the Panthers are 3-2 with wins over Atlanta, Detroit and the Eagles. When we ran the rest of the season Carolina came out at 10-6, averaging ten and a half wins, with an 85.5 percent playoff chance and six percent title odds, up from 9-8, 40.5 percent and zero two weeks ago and four full wins above the 6.6 the summer sim projected. The Panthers are now the model's NFC South favorite, a position Atlanta held for a month, and the title odds are the sixth-best in football, level with Pittsburgh.
The quarterback is the reason and the numbers keep climbing. Bryce Young is 121 of 201 for 1,549 yards with eleven touchdowns and two interceptions, a 98.5 rating, and has been sacked twelve times. Our model projects him for 4,964 yards and 35 touchdowns against six interceptions behind a 105.5 rating, up from 4,852 and 31, and that is the fourth-highest rating projection of any starter behind Goff, Purdy and Jackson. Tetairoa McMillan has 32 catches for 471 yards and projects for 108 catches and 1,549 yards. Jalen Coker is back from the quad and projects for 78 catches and 1,066 yards. Tommy Tremble has climbed to 52 catches and seven touchdowns. Darren Waller projects for 48 catches and six. Chuba Hubbard has 426 rushing yards and projects for 986 and nine, up from 821. The unit projects for 447 points, second in the league behind only Detroit, up from 399 and tenth.
The defense is the hedge and the model has not moved on it. Carolina projects to allow 376 points, 19th in the league, and has given up 123 in five games, 59 of them in Week 1. Jaelan Phillips projects for 12.7 sacks. Princely Umanmielen has climbed to over seven. Pat Jones II projects for three and a half. The team projects for 39 sacks, 21st, which is the number that keeps the Panthers' defense in the bottom half. The back end has been better than that. Devin Lloyd projects for over four interceptions, 103 tackles and nearly three sacks. Tre'von Moehrig's sack projection has gone from near zero to over one. Bobby Okereke projects for 99 tackles and a sack and a half. The Panthers project for over twelve interceptions, seventh.
The division has flipped and the Panthers are on top of it. Atlanta is 2-4 after two home losses and projects for nine wins, with Carolina holding the head-to-head. New Orleans is 2-4 and projects for six. Tampa Bay is 1-5 and projects for four. When we ran the rest of the season Carolina won the NFC South more often than any other team, which is the first run all year in which that was true, and the Falcons rematch in December is the only division game the model treats as close.
The next month is Tampa Bay at home at 80 percent, a trip to Green Bay at 30, Denver at home at 84, and a trip to New Orleans at 64. When we ran that stretch Carolina went 3-1 more often than anything else, with the Packers game the one the model treats as a loss. A 6-3 record entering the second week of November would push the projection toward eleven and the title odds toward double figures.
The Philadelphia game was the only one the Panthers played in the fortnight and it was a 25-14 win on the road in which the offense scored 25 on a defense the model has tenth and the Panthers' defense held the Eagles to 14. The model gave Carolina 54 percent. The projection moved a win and a half and the playoff odds more than doubled, and most of that came from the bye: the new weighting looked at five games of Young at a 98.5 rating against a 2025 season well below it and moved his rating projection to 105.5, fourth among starters, and looked at five games of an offense averaging 29 a game and moved the points-for projection from tenth in the league to second. Hubbard's rushing projection rose 165 yards. Coker's return added 100 yards to his line. Tremble's touchdown projection rose three. The defense did not move; it is still 19th in points allowed, and the pass rush is still 21st, which is the hedge the model has carried all season. Atlanta losing twice at home in the same fortnight is why Carolina is now the division favorite rather than the division's second team. What moves the number from here is Green Bay on the road in Week 8 at 30 percent, the only game in the next month the model treats as a loss. Win it and the Panthers are 5-2 with a ten and a half win projection that looks like a floor.
The matchup record is a team that has beaten the model's favorites three times. We gave Carolina 38 percent against Chicago, 18 in Atlanta, 74 in Cleveland, 24 against Detroit and 54 in Philadelphia. Three wins from about two expected is a win ahead, and the two wins over Atlanta and Detroit as heavy underdogs are the results that moved the grade. The market opened Carolina at seven and a half wins. Our model sat a win under it in July and sits three over it now, which is the largest lean on the board. The lean is the quarterback, who is playing at the level of the top four in the league by our numbers, and an offense that now projects second in football. The pass rush is the hedge.
