Buffalo won in Los Angeles and Las Vegas and is 5-1, and our model has moved the Bills back to ten wins and the AFC East lead
Updated
Buffalo went to Los Angeles as an eight percent underdog and beat the Rams 37-34, then went to Las Vegas and beat the Raiders 33-30. The Bills are 5-1, lead the AFC East by a game, and have scored 197 points in six games, which is 33 a game. When we ran the rest of the season Buffalo came out at 10-7 with a 68.5 percent playoff chance and one percent title odds, up from 8-9 and 33 percent two weeks ago after the home loss to New England. In July the model had the Bills at 4.8 wins and a one percent playoff chance. They have gained more than five wins since the summer, the most of any team in the league.
The offense is the reason and it keeps getting better. Josh Allen is 114 of 171 for 1,504 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, a 102 rating, and projects for 3,721 passing yards plus 685 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns, which would be a career high on the ground. James Cook has 627 rushing yards and six touchdowns, third in the league, and projects for 1,314 and nine, up from 1,188. DJ Moore's projection has dropped from 84 catches to 70 with the shoulder. Keon Coleman has climbed to 43 catches and five touchdowns. Dalton Kincaid has a rib injury and is expected back in Week 8 after the bye. The unit projects for 442 points, fourth in the league, up from 394 and eleventh two weeks ago, and that is the model finally pricing an offense that has scored 30 or more in four of six games.
The defense is why the projection is ten wins and not twelve. Buffalo has allowed 171 points in six games, 28.5 a game, and our model projects the unit giving up 420 points, 28th in the league. That is the defense the July preview was built on, and six weeks have not changed the grade much. Greg Rousseau has six sacks and projects for 12.4, down from nearly 17 as the pace has slowed. Deone Walker projects for nearly eight from the interior, up from under seven. Dorian Williams' tackle projection has jumped from 33 to 120 as the linebacker has taken a full-time role. The team projects for 40 sacks, 17th, and nine interceptions, 27th. The Bills have won five games by outscoring the problem, and the model expects the problem to keep showing up.
The division is Buffalo's by the record and a race by the projection. New England is 4-2 and projects for ten wins, the same as the Bills, with the head-to-head already won. The Jets are 2-4 and project for eight. Miami is 0-5 and projects for two and a half. When we ran the rest of the season Buffalo won the AFC East more often than New England, but the margin is thin, and the Patriots' tiebreaker is the reason. The Week 10 game at the Jets and the Patriots rematch are where it gets decided.
The next month starts with a bye and gets hard immediately after. Week 7 off, Baltimore at home at 30 percent, a trip to Minnesota at 50, and a trip to the Jets at 42. When we ran that stretch Buffalo went 1-2 more often than 2-1, and the Ravens game, with Lamar Jackson possibly back, is the one the model treats as a loss. A 6-3 record entering the second week of November would keep ten wins on schedule.
The two road wins were different and both were important. In Los Angeles the Bills scored 37 on a Rams defense the model had second in the league, and won a shootout 37-34 as an eight percent underdog. In Las Vegas they scored 33 on a Raiders defense the model has 27th and won 33-30, which is the kind of game a team with a 420-point defense has to win by outscoring. The offense did both. Allen's rushing projection has climbed from 574 yards to 685 and his rushing touchdown line from 14 to 16, which is the model watching him run near the goal line and expecting it to continue. Cook's yardage projection rose 126 in two weeks. Coleman's touchdown line went from three to five. The points-for projection went from 394 to 442, a 48-point move that is the largest offensive upgrade of any team in this run. The defense did not move. It is still 28th. What moves the number from here is the Baltimore game after the bye, with Lamar Jackson possibly back, and the Minnesota trip the week after. Those are two of the best defenses in the AFC, and the model has the Bills as an underdog in one and even in the other. Win both and the AFC East is Buffalo's. Lose both and the Patriots, with the tiebreaker, are in front.
The matchup record is the largest overperformance in the league. We gave Buffalo 16 percent in Houston, 26 against Detroit, 54 against the Chargers, 46 against New England, eight in Los Angeles and 44 in Las Vegas. Five wins from under two expected is the gap, and the Rams game was the largest upset the Bills have produced. The model has been wrong about Buffalo in the same direction for six weeks, and the ten-win projection is the model catching up rather than getting ahead. The market opened Buffalo at seven and a half wins. In July we sat under it. We now sit two and a half over it, and the lean is an offense that has scored 197 points in six games. The defense is why it is not larger.
