Chicago lost 31-7 in Green Bay and beat Atlanta, and our model has the Bears at nine wins with Sweat suspended and Odeyingbo hurt
Updated
Chicago lost 31-7 in Green Bay, then went to Atlanta as a 26 percent underdog and won 31-23 with Caleb Williams back under center, and the Bears are 4-2. When we ran the rest of the season Chicago came out at 9-8 with a 31.5 percent playoff chance, down from 10-7 and 61 percent two weeks ago. The Green Bay result is part of that. The other part is the defensive line: Montez Sweat is serving a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing substance policy, and Dayo Odeyingbo has a quad injury that will cost him time. The model has priced both, and the Bears' pass rush projection has been rebuilt around players who were backups a fortnight ago.
The defense is the half that moved. Chicago projects to allow 370 points, 17th in the league, up from 343 and twelfth, and the 31 in Green Bay is where most of that came from. Sweat and Odeyingbo have dropped out of the top of the sack projections entirely. Austin Booker's line has gone from two sacks to over ten and Daniel Hardy's from zero to nearly seven, which is the model handing the edge rotation to the next men up for the games the starters miss. Devin Bush projects for 109 tackles and over two interceptions. Tyrique Stevenson projects for 100 tackles, which is the sign of a corner being targeted. Dillon Thieneman's interception projection has doubled to over two. The team projects for 42 sacks, 13th, a number held up by the two replacements. The Bears have allowed 119 points in six games.
The offense has survived the quarterback situation and now has the quarterback back. Williams has started three games and is 66 of 91 for 712 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, a 101.5 rating. Tyson Bagent went 42 of 64 for 409 yards without a touchdown and with three interceptions in his three. Our model projects Williams for 3,198 yards and 16 touchdowns across the games it expects him to play, plus 377 rushing yards and six scores. D'Andre Swift has 398 rushing yards and six touchdowns and projects for 987 and nine. Kyle Monangai is out with thumb and toe injuries; his projection has slipped to 664. Rome Odunze projects for 76 catches and 1,104 yards. Luther Burden III has climbed to 75 catches. The unit projects for 375 points, 16th in the league, down from 410 and seventh.
The division is the toughest in football by the model's numbers and the Bears are fourth in it by projection. Detroit is 3-2 and projects for 12.5 wins as the title favorite. Green Bay is 4-2 and projects for eleven, with the head-to-head over Chicago banked. Minnesota is 5-0 and projects for ten, with the head-to-head banked too. Chicago projects for nine, and when we ran the rest of the season the Bears finished last in the NFC North more often than any other spot, which is a sentence about the division more than the team. The wild card is the route, and 31.5 percent is the number.
The next month is three games and a bye. New England at home on Thursday at 46 percent, a trip to Seattle at 40, Tampa Bay at home at 64, and a bye in Week 10. When we ran that stretch Chicago went 2-1 and 1-2 about equally often, and the Patriots game, with Sweat and Odeyingbo both out, is the one the model treats as a narrow loss. A 6-3 record entering the bye would keep nine wins on schedule.
The fortnight in detail: a 31-7 loss in Green Bay in which the Bears offense scored seven and the defense gave up 31 to a Packers offense that had scored 20 or fewer in three of four games, and a 31-23 win in Atlanta in which Williams was back under center and the defense held the Falcons to 23 as a 26 percent underdog. The two games moved the projection in opposite directions and the net was a win down, because the Green Bay game cost the Bears the tiebreaker in a division where tiebreakers will matter, and because the week after it the league suspended Sweat for two games and Odeyingbo hurt his quad. The model has rebuilt the edge rotation around Booker and Hardy for the games the starters miss, and the sack projection held at 42 because of it. The offense moved down with the Green Bay game: the points-for projection fell 35, Odunze's yardage fell 140, and Williams' touchdown projection fell three as the model priced the games he had missed. What moves the number from here is Thursday against New England without the two starting edge rushers, and the model has the Bears as a slight underdog. A win would be the Bears' fifth and would make nine wins look low. Sweat is back for Seattle in Week 8. Odeyingbo's timeline is the thing to watch.
The matchup record has been slightly better than the projections. We gave Chicago 62 percent in Carolina, 68 against Minnesota, 40 against Philadelphia, 74 against the Jets, 52 in Green Bay and 26 in Atlanta. Four wins from about three and a quarter expected is three-quarters of a win ahead, and the Atlanta win as a three-to-one underdog is the best result the Bears have produced. The market opened Chicago at nine wins. Our model sat nearly a win under it in July, a win over it two weeks ago, and on it now. The lean has gone with the pass rush. Two weeks of Sweat's suspension and however long Odeyingbo misses are the reason, and the model will move again when they are back.
