Cleveland beat Baltimore 13-10 and is 4-2 atop the AFC North, and our model has moved the Browns to eight wins without believing the record yet
Updated
Cleveland lost 17-12 in New York to the Jets, then beat Baltimore 13-10 at home against Tyler Huntley, and the Browns are 4-2, tied for the AFC North lead with the Ravens and Steelers. Three of the six games have been decided by three points or fewer and Cleveland has won all three. When we ran the rest of the season the Browns came out at 8-9 with a 17.5 percent playoff chance, up from 7-10 and five percent two weeks ago and double the four wins the summer sim projected. The model has moved four full wins on Cleveland since July, and it still projects the Browns to lose seven of their last eleven.
The reason is the offense, which has scored 106 points in six games and projects for 275, 29th in the league. Deshaun Watson is 111 of 174 for 1,174 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, a 92 rating, and has been sacked 24 times, the most of any quarterback in the league by five. Our model projects him for 3,529 yards and 17 touchdowns, and his rushing projection has nearly doubled to 303 yards as the scrambles have piled up. Denzel Boston projects for 74 catches and 1,232 yards with seven touchdowns. Harold Fannin Jr. for 54 catches and six scores. Quinshon Judkins has slipped from 668 projected rushing yards to 575, and Jaleel McLaughlin has climbed from 152 to 279 as the carries have spread. The 24 sacks are the number that explains everything. An offense that cannot protect its quarterback cannot sustain drives, and the Browns have won anyway because the other side of the ball has made it unnecessary.
The defense is the best thing on the roster and the model has upgraded it again. Cleveland projects to allow 338 points, eleventh in the league, up from 19th two weeks ago, and has given up 122 in six games. Maliek Collins' sack projection has climbed from seven and a half to nearly ten. Isaiah McGuire projects for seven and a half. Mason Graham for nearly six. Carson Schwesinger projects for 104 tackles and his sack line has tripled to one and a half. Quincy Williams' tackle projection has gone from 26 to 94 as the linebacker has taken a full role. Denzel Ward projects for over two interceptions. The team projects for 41 sacks, 14th, and eleven interceptions, 16th. The unit has held four of six opponents to 19 or fewer.
The division is a three-way tie and the model has the Browns finishing last in it. Pittsburgh is 4-2 and projects for eleven wins. Baltimore is 4-2 and projects for ten, with Cleveland holding the head-to-head. Cincinnati is 3-2 and projects for ten. The Browns project for eight, three behind the Steelers, and when we ran the rest of the season they finished fourth in the AFC North in most simulated years despite leading it now. The model gives them 18 percent in Pittsburgh in Week 8 and 20 percent against Houston in Week 10.
The next month is a mix. A trip to Tennessee at 66 percent, a trip to Pittsburgh at 18, a trip to New Orleans at 68, and Houston at home at 20. When we ran that stretch Cleveland went 2-2 more often than anything else, with the Titans and Saints games won and the Steelers and Texans games lost. A 6-4 record entering the second week of November would be two wins ahead of the eight-win projection, and the Browns have been running ahead of it all year.
The fortnight in detail: a 17-12 loss in New York in which the Browns scored twelve against a Jets defense the model has third in the league, and a 13-10 home win over Baltimore in which the defense held a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson to ten. Both games were decided by a touchdown or less, which makes five of six for Cleveland. The model has watched this for six weeks and has priced it the way it prices close games: as evidence that the Browns are better than their July grade and not as evidence that they are a nine-win team. The 24 sacks allowed are the reason. No offense that takes four sacks a game sustains a winning record for a full season, and the model's 275-point projection, 29th in the league, is built on that. Watson's rushing projection nearly doubling is the model noticing he is running away from pressure. The defense is the other half, and it keeps climbing: eleventh in points allowed now, up from 19th two weeks ago, with Collins' sack projection the biggest mover. What moves the number from here is Pittsburgh in Week 8. The model gives the Browns 18 percent in it. Win and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker over both the Steelers and Ravens and the eight-win projection is three wins light. Lose and the model's read, that this is a good defense carrying an offense that cannot protect its quarterback, will look like what it has been all along.
The matchup record is one of the three largest overperformances in the league, and the largest relative to the model's expectations for a bottom-ten roster. We gave Cleveland ten percent in Jacksonville, 24 in Tampa Bay, 26 against Carolina, 16 against Pittsburgh, 22 against the Jets and 26 against Baltimore. Four wins from one and a quarter expected is the gap, and the Browns have now beaten the model's favorite in four of six weeks. The market opened Cleveland at five and a half wins. Our model sat a win and a half under it in July and sits two and a half over it now. The lean is honest about the defense and skeptical about an offense that has taken 24 sacks. Three one-score wins are three one-score wins. The model is still waiting for the fourth quarter to go the other way.
