Houston won in Tennessee and Jacksonville and is 2-4, and our model has the Texans at nine wins with a real wild card chance again
Updated
Houston went to Tennessee and won 26-3, then went to Jacksonville and won 34-31 against the team the model had as the AFC's best defense, and the Texans are 2-4 after an 0-4 start. When we ran the rest of the season Houston came out at 9-8 with a 45.5 percent playoff chance and three percent title odds, up from 8-9, 25.5 percent and half a percent two weeks ago. The model had the Texans at eleven wins in July, cut them to eight after four losses by a combined 25 points, and has now put a win back. Two road wins will do that, and so will trading for a receiver.
The offense has been the better half for two weeks and the model has priced the addition. C.J. Stroud is 143 of 219 for 1,714 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception, a 101 rating, and projects for 4,791 yards and 28 touchdowns against six interceptions behind a 103 rating, up from 23 and 96 two weeks ago. Nico Collins projects for 88 catches and 1,306 yards. Marvin Harrison Jr., acquired from Arizona on October 10, projects for 46 catches and 656 yards across the rest of the season in Houston. Jaylin Noel's projection has jumped from nine catches to 48 as the rookie has taken a role. Dalton Schultz projects for 70 catches. The running game is still the gap: David Montgomery projects for 477 yards and Woody Marks for 332. The unit projects for 395 points, eleventh in the league, up from 357 and 17th.
The defense is the best pass rush in football and it has started to matter. Houston projects to allow 343 points, 13th in the league, and has given up 143 in six games. Will Anderson Jr. has ten sacks in six games, the most in the league by two, and projects for nearly 22. Danielle Hunter projects for over eleven. The team projects for 54 sacks, second in football behind Detroit, down from 60 as the rate has normalized. Jake Hansen's tackle projection has jumped from 27 to 78 with over two interceptions as the linebacker has taken a full role. Reed Blankenship projects for 84 tackles and over two picks. The Texans project for ten interceptions, 22nd, which is still the weakness.
The division has reopened and the Texans are the reason. Jacksonville is 4-2 and projects for eleven wins, with Houston holding the head-to-head after Sunday. Indianapolis is 2-4 and projects for six. Tennessee is 1-5 and projects for three. The Jaguars are two games clear of Houston with the rematch still to come, and when we ran the rest of the season the Texans won the AFC South in a meaningful minority of simulated years, up from almost never two weeks ago. The nine-win projection is still mostly a wild card number, but the division is in the conversation.
The next month is three games and a bye, and the model has Houston favored in all three. The Giants at home at 82 percent, a bye in Week 8, a trip to the Chargers at 74, and a trip to Cleveland at 80. When we ran that stretch the Texans went 3-0 more often than any other outcome, and a 5-4 record entering the second week of November would put nine wins on schedule and the wild card race firmly in view.
The fortnight in detail: a 26-3 win in Tennessee in which the defense held the Titans to a field goal, and a 34-31 win in Jacksonville in which the offense scored 34 on a Jaguars defense that had allowed 53 points in four games. The Jacksonville game is the one the model moved on. The Texans scored 34 on the road and beat the AFC's best defense on the road as a near coin flip. The offensive points projection rose 38 in two weeks, from 357 to 395, and Stroud's touchdown projection rose five while his rating projection rose seven, which is the kind of move the model only makes when it has decided a quarterback has changed. The Harrison trade is priced at 46 catches and 656 yards for the rest of the season, which is the model treating him as a clear second option behind Collins. Noel's jump from nine projected catches to 48 is the rookie taking the third role. The defense held its grade: 13th in points allowed, second in sacks. What moves the number from here is three games the model has Houston favored in by a wide margin. Win all three and the Texans are 5-4 in the second week of November with the Jacksonville tiebreaker in hand and a nine-win projection that looks low. The division is in play. Two weeks ago it was not.
The matchup record is a team that lost four games it was supposed to win and has won two it was close to even in. We gave Houston 84 percent against Buffalo, 46 against Cincinnati, 56 in Indianapolis, 50 against Dallas, 82 in Tennessee and 52 in Jacksonville. Two wins from nearly three and three-quarters expected is still among the four largest underperformances in the league, and the four September losses are why. The market opened Houston at ten wins. Our model sat a win over it in July and sits a win under it now. The lean is the pass rush and a quarterback with one interception in six games. The 0-4 start is why it is not larger.
