Washington tied the Giants with Jayden Daniels back and lost in San Francisco, and our model has the Commanders at five wins
Updated
Washington tied the Giants 27-27 at home in Jayden Daniels' first game back from the dislocated elbow, then lost 23-17 in San Francisco, and the Commanders are 1-4-1. When we ran the rest of the season Washington came out at 5-11-1, averaging five wins, with a four and a half percent playoff chance, up from 4.5 wins two weeks ago and from 3.7 in July. The model has moved the Commanders up a fraction every run since the summer, and Daniels' return is the first thing that could make it move faster.
The quarterback is back and the offense has looked like it. Daniels is 75 of 116 for 759 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in his four games, a 98 rating, and projects for 3,173 yards and 17 touchdowns against four interceptions plus 502 rushing yards, up from 2,995 and 15 two weeks ago when the model was still pricing missed games. Marcus Mariota projects for 384 yards in relief. Rachaad White has taken over the backfield and projects for 494 rushing yards, up from 265, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt dropping from 491 to 320. Antonio Williams has climbed to 66 catches and 817 yards. Stefon Diggs projects for 70 catches and six touchdowns. Treylon Burks' projection has gone from four catches to 33. Terry McLaurin is not in the top four receiving projections, which is the hamstring. The unit projects for 318 points, 25th in the league, up from 272 and 29th, one of the three largest offensive upgrades in this run.
The defense is the reason the projection is five wins and not seven. Washington has allowed 172 points in six games, 28.7 a game, and projects to allow 397 points, 25th in the league. Odafe Oweh projects for 11.7 sacks, down from nearly 14. Tim Settle and Daron Payne project for three each from the interior. The team projects for 33.4 sacks, 31st in football, which is the second-worst pass rush in the league ahead of only Dallas. Jeremy Reaves projects for 106 tackles and over three interceptions, up from under two. Rasul Douglas for two picks. Leo Chenal's tackle projection has dropped from 103 to 78. The unit held San Francisco to 23 and gave up 27 to the Giants and 30 to the Colts.
The division is a four-team scramble and the Commanders are the fourth team in it. Philadelphia is 2-4 and projects for nine wins without Jalen Hurts. Dallas is 2-4 and projects for eight. The Giants are 3-2-1 and project for six with J.J. McCarthy starting. Washington has lost to the Eagles and Cowboys, tied the Giants, and projects for five, and when we ran the rest of the season the Commanders finished last in the NFC East in most simulated years and third in a meaningful minority, which is new.
The next month is a bye and three games. Week 7 off, Philadelphia at home at 32 percent, the Rams at home at 40, and a trip to the Giants at 48. When we ran that stretch Washington went 1-2 more often than anything else, and the Giants game is the one the model treats as even. A 2-6-1 record entering the second week of November would put five wins on schedule, and a healthy Daniels is the only thing that would push it higher.
The fortnight in detail: a 27-27 tie at home with the Giants in Daniels' first game back, and a 23-17 loss in San Francisco in which the offense scored 17 on a 49ers defense the model has fifth. Daniels has five touchdowns and no interceptions in his four games. Those two games are the first evidence the model has had of what this offense looks like with its quarterback, and it has priced them: the points-for projection rose 46 in two weeks, from 272 to 318, one of the three largest offensive upgrades of any team in this run. Daniels' passing projection rose 178 yards and two touchdowns and his rushing projection rose 225 yards, which is the model expecting him to run the way he did before the injury. White's rushing projection nearly doubled as he took the backfield from Croskey-Merritt. Burks' projection went from four catches to 33. The defense went the other way. Twenty-seven and 23 allowed moved the points-allowed projection from 404 to 397, which is a small improvement, but the sack projection fell from 39 to 33, 31st in the league, and Oweh's fell two. What moves the number from here is the bye and then three home-and-away games against division rivals and the Rams. The Giants game in Week 10 at 48 percent is the one the model treats as even, and a win there with Daniels healthy would put five wins on schedule by mid-November with the softer half of the schedule to come.
The matchup record is a team that has lost the games it was supposed to lose and stolen one. We gave Washington 14 percent in Philadelphia, 22 in Dallas, ten against Seattle, 28 against Indianapolis, 40 against the Giants and 34 in San Francisco. One win and a tie from about one and a half expected is close to even, and the Seattle upset with Mariota is still the best result of the season. The market opened Washington at six wins. Our model sat two and a half under it in July and sits a win under it now. The lean is the pass rush, which is the second-worst in football, and a defense that has allowed 28.7 a game. Daniels makes the offense watchable. He does not fix the other side.
