Pittsburgh beat the Colts and Buccaneers and is 4-2, and our model has the Steelers at eleven wins and the AFC North favorite
Updated
Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 34-22 at home and Tampa Bay 26-19 on the road, is 4-2, and is tied atop the AFC North with Baltimore and Cleveland. When we ran the rest of the season the Steelers came out at 11-6 with an 85 percent playoff chance and six percent title odds, up from 9-8, 55 percent and half a percent two weeks ago, and well above the 8.7 wins the summer sim projected. The Steelers are now the model's most likely AFC North champion, a position that belonged to Baltimore for a month, and the reason is partly Lamar Jackson's ankle and partly a defense that has allowed 128 points in six games.
The defense is the reason the model has moved and it has been the reason all year. Pittsburgh projects to allow 312 points, fourth in the league, up from seventh two weeks ago, and the fourth-fewest yards. T.J. Watt projects for 11.6 sacks and an interception, down from 14 as the pace has slowed, and Alex Highsmith for nearly ten. Keeanu Benton projects for five and a half from the interior. Jalen Ramsey's sack projection has gone from near zero to over two as the safety has been used as a blitzer. Jaquan Brisker projects for 86 tackles and nearly two picks. The team projects for 44 sacks, tenth, and twelve interceptions, tenth. The unit held the Colts to 22 and the Buccaneers to 19 and has not given up 30 all season.
The offense has been better than the sack count suggests. Aaron Rodgers is 143 of 233 for 1,487 yards with twelve touchdowns and five interceptions, an 88 rating, and has been sacked 19 times, tied for third-most in the league. Our model projects him for 4,256 yards and 27 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, up from 25 and 14. Jaylen Warren has 460 rushing yards and projects for 1,237 plus 49 catches and 505 receiving yards, both up sharply. D.K. Metcalf projects for 109 catches and 1,246 yards. Germie Bernard's projection has jumped from 16 catches to 80 as the rookie has become the second option, the largest receiving move on any roster this run. Darnell Washington projects for six touchdowns. The unit projects for 375 points, 15th in the league, up from 349 and 19th.
The division is a three-way tie and the model has sorted it. Baltimore is 4-2 and projects for ten wins with Jackson's return the variable. Cleveland is 4-2 and projects for eight with the head-to-head over Pittsburgh already won. Cincinnati is 3-2 and projects for ten. When we ran the rest of the season the Steelers won the AFC North more often than any other team, which is the first run all year in which that was true, and the Cleveland rematch at home in Week 8 at 82 percent is the game that evens the one tiebreaker the Browns hold.
The next month is three games and a bye, and the model likes all three. A trip to New Orleans at 58 percent, Cleveland at home at 82, a bye in Week 9, and a trip to Cincinnati at 56. When we ran that stretch Pittsburgh went 2-1 more often than anything else and 3-0 often enough to matter. A 7-3 record entering the second week of November would push the projection toward twelve.
The fortnight in detail: a 34-22 home win over Indianapolis in which the offense scored its most points of the season, and a 26-19 win in Tampa Bay in which the defense held the Buccaneers to 19. Both were won by more than a score, which is new for a team whose other four games were decided by seven or fewer apart from the New England loss. The model moved the Steelers nearly two wins in a fortnight, and it did so for three reasons: two comfortable wins, a defense it now has fourth in the league, and a division in which Baltimore has been playing without its quarterback. Rodgers' touchdown projection rose two and his interception projection fell one. Warren's receiving projection rose ten catches and 133 yards, which is the model noticing the screen game. Bernard's jump from 16 projected catches to 80 is the model handing the second receiver role to the rookie for good. The sacks are the caveat, still: 19 allowed in six games, second-most in the league, and a line that has not fixed it. What moves the number from here is Cleveland at home in Week 8 at 82 percent. Win it and the Steelers hold every tiebreaker in the division except Baltimore's, and the Ravens' depends on whether Jackson is healthy for the rematch. Lose it and the Browns have beaten Pittsburgh twice.
The matchup record is a team that has won the games it was expected to win and dropped two it was not. We gave Pittsburgh 46 percent against Atlanta, 50 in New England, 54 against Cincinnati, 84 in Cleveland, 70 against Indianapolis and 80 in Tampa Bay. Four wins from under four expected is close to even, and the Cleveland loss is still the one the model holds against them. The market opened Pittsburgh at nine wins. Our model sat a half-win under it in July and sits two over it now. The lean is the defense, which is a top-four unit by every number the model produces. The 19 sacks are the reason the lean is not larger.
