Tampa Bay won in Dallas with Jalon Daniels and lost at home to Pittsburgh, and our model has lifted the Buccaneers to four wins with Mayfield close to returning
Updated
Tampa Bay went to Dallas as a 24 percent underdog and won 24-16 for its first win of the season, then lost 26-19 at home to Pittsburgh, and the Buccaneers are 1-5. Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice on Wednesday for the first time since dislocating his thumb in Week 3. When we ran the rest of the season Tampa Bay came out at 4-13, averaging four and a half wins, with a one percent playoff chance, up from 3-14 and three wins two weeks ago and close to the five the summer sim projected. A road win and a quarterback coming back are worth about a win and a half together.
The offense with Jalon Daniels has been what the model expected, and Mayfield's return is priced. Daniels is 60 of 98 for 501 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions, a 64 rating, in his four games. Mayfield was 61 of 96 for 615 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions before the injury and projects for 449 attempts and 3,053 yards across the games the model now expects him to play, up from 3,494 projected before the model priced the missed games and then down again as it leaned harder on his 2026 rate. Bucky Irving has 452 rushing yards and projects for 1,022, up from 600, the biggest move on the roster. Emeka Egbuka projects for 85 catches. Chris Godwin for 73. Cade Otton for 56. Jalen McMillan remains on injured reserve with the knee. The unit projects for 308 points, 28th in the league, up from 280.
The defense has been the better half all season and the model has it as a bottom-seven unit anyway. Tampa Bay projects to allow 398 points, 26th in the league, which is a harsh grade for a unit that has given up 138 points in six games and held Dallas to 16. Rueben Bain Jr.'s sack projection has gone from three and a half to over six as the rookie has taken on a bigger role, the largest individual move on the defense. Yaya Diaby projects for five and a half sacks and over an interception. David Walker has doubled to four. A'Shawn Robinson projects for two interceptions from the interior, which is unusual. Tykee Smith projects for 106 tackles and Antoine Winfield Jr. for 95. The team projects for under 35 sacks, 29th, and nearly twelve interceptions, twelfth.
The division has a new favorite and the Buccaneers are last. Carolina is 3-2 and projects for ten and a half wins. Atlanta is 2-4 and projects for nine. New Orleans is 2-4 and projects for six. Tampa Bay has not played a division game yet, which means all six are still ahead of it, and when we ran the rest of the season the Buccaneers finished last in the NFC South in nearly every simulated year.
The next month is three games and a bye. A trip to Carolina at 20 percent, Atlanta at home at 28, a trip to Chicago at 36, and a bye in Week 10. When we ran that stretch Tampa Bay went 1-2 more often than 0-3, and the Bears game is the closest to a coin flip. A 2-7 record entering the bye would put four and a half wins on schedule, with Mayfield back for the second half.
The fortnight in detail: a 24-16 win in Dallas in which the defense held the Cowboys to 16, as a 24 percent underdog; and a 26-19 home loss to Pittsburgh. The Dallas game is the one that moved the projection, because it was a road win against a team the model had at ten wins, and because Irving has carried the offense with 452 rushing yards in six games. His rushing projection rose 422 yards in two weeks, the largest move for any running back in this run, and he is now on pace for over 1,000. Bain's sack projection nearly doubling is the rookie edge rusher taking a starting role. Mayfield's full practice on Wednesday is the other half of the move: the model has priced him for 449 attempts across the rest of the season, which is most of the remaining games, and the points-for projection rose 28 as a result. What moves the number from here is whether Mayfield plays in Carolina on Sunday and how he plays. The model gives Tampa Bay 20 percent either way. The four and a half wins are mostly in December, against a schedule that softens after the bye, and the Buccaneers' offensive line, which has given up 22 sacks, is the thing between the projection and five.
The matchup record is a team that has lost the games it was favored in and won one it was not. We gave Tampa Bay 16 percent in Cincinnati, 76 against Cleveland, 52 against Minnesota, 30 against Green Bay, 24 in Dallas and 20 against Pittsburgh. One win from about two and a sixth expected is a win and a sixth under, and the Cleveland game in Week 2 is still the one that should have been a win. The market opened Tampa Bay at six and a half wins. Our model sat a win and a half under it in July and sits two under it now. The lean is about a quarterback who has missed a month and an offensive line that has given up 22 sacks. Mayfield coming back is the reason the projection moved. The Dallas game is the reason it moved more than a half-win.
