Indianapolis lost at home to Tennessee as an 82 percent favorite, and our model has cut the Colts to six wins with the quarterback the problem
Updated
Indianapolis lost 34-22 in Pittsburgh, then lost 26-20 at home to a Tennessee team that had not won a game, and the Colts are 2-4. The Titans loss came with the model giving Indianapolis an 82 percent chance, and it is the kind of result that moves a projection. When we ran the rest of the season the Colts came out at 6-10, averaging six and a half wins, with a four and a half percent playoff chance, down from 8-9 and 17.5 percent two weeks ago and from 10.8 wins and an 81 percent playoff chance in July. Only the Chargers, Rams and Dolphins have fallen further since the summer.
The quarterback is the reason and the numbers have gotten worse. Daniel Jones is 130 of 218 for 1,290 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions, a 71 rating, and has been sacked 15 times. Our model projects him for 3,867 yards and 17 touchdowns against 16 interceptions behind an 80 rating, down from 19 touchdowns and 87 two weeks ago. Jonathan Taylor has 492 rushing yards and seven touchdowns and projects for 1,139 and twelve, which is the one thing on the offense that has worked. Josh Downs projects for 84 catches and 1,050 yards. Keenan Allen is back and has climbed to 69 catches. Tyler Warren has slipped from 88 catches to 82 and from eight touchdowns to six. The unit projects for 369 points, 19th in the league, unchanged in total.
The defense has given up 164 points in six games and the model has downgraded it again. Indianapolis projects to allow 420 points, 29th in the league, up from 386 and 24th two weeks ago, and the Titans scoring 26 is the game that did it. DeForest Buckner has six sacks and projects for nearly eight. Adetomiwa Adebawore projects for nearly nine. Laiatu Latu has slipped from nine and a half to under seven. The team projects for under 38 sacks, 26th, and eight interceptions, 30th, which is the number that explains most of the points allowed. Camryn Bynum's tackle projection has dropped from 105 to 81 and his interception line has climbed to nearly two.
The division is Jacksonville's with Houston closing, and the Colts are third. The Jaguars are 4-2 and project for eleven wins. The Texans are 2-4 and project for nine after winning in Jacksonville. Tennessee is 1-5 and projects for three, with the head-to-head over Indianapolis now banked. When we ran the rest of the season the Colts finished third in the AFC South in most simulated years and fourth in a meaningful minority, which is a sentence the model did not produce at any point in the summer.
The next month is four games and the model has Indianapolis favored in one. A trip to Minnesota at 34 percent, a trip to Jacksonville at 20, Dallas at home at 34, and Miami at home at 70. When we ran that stretch the Colts went 1-3 more often than anything else, and the Dolphins game is the only one the model expects them to win. A 3-7 record entering the second week of November would put six wins on schedule.
The fortnight in detail: a 34-22 loss in Pittsburgh in which the Colts gave up 34 to a Steelers offense that had scored 20 or fewer in two of four games, and a 26-20 home loss to Tennessee in which Indianapolis became the first team to lose to the Titans this season, as an 82 percent favorite. The Tennessee game is the one that moved the projection. A defense that gives up 26 to the lowest-scoring offense in football is not a 24th-ranked defense, and the model moved it to 29th. A quarterback with four touchdown passes in six games is not a 19-touchdown quarterback, and the model moved Jones to 17 with 16 interceptions. Taylor's seven rushing touchdowns are the one thing on the offense that has met the July grade, and his projection has held near 1,140 yards and twelve scores. Buckner's six sacks are the one thing on the defense that has. Everything else has drifted down for six weeks. What moves the number from here is almost nothing in the next month. The model has Indianapolis as a clear underdog in Minnesota, Jacksonville and at home against Dallas, with Miami at home the only game it expects the Colts to win. A 3-7 record entering the second week of November is the most likely path, and six wins would mean winning half of the last seven.
The matchup record is a team that keeps losing the games the model gives it. We gave Indianapolis 70 percent against Baltimore and the Colts lost by 18, 52 in Kansas City and they lost by three, 44 against Houston and they won, 72 in London and they won, 30 in Pittsburgh and they lost by twelve, and 82 against Tennessee and they lost by six. Two wins from three and a half expected is a win and a half under, and the two wins came against Houston and Washington. The market opened Indianapolis at nine wins. Our model sat nearly two over it in July and sits two and a half under it now. The lean has reversed completely and the reason is a quarterback with four touchdown passes in six games and a defense that just gave up 26 to the lowest-scoring offense in football.
