NFL Week 17 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Week 17 Predictions

2026 Season · Week 17

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

‹
WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 5 WK 6 WK 7 WK 8 WK 9 WK 10 WK 11 WK 12 WK 13 WK 14 WK 15 WK 16 WK 17 WK 18
›

Thursday, Dec 31

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 28%
17
CIN logo CIN 72%
24
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow293 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry86 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CIN -1.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model CIN -7.3
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 7.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CIN -1.5 +5.8 pts
The model leans Bengals by 7.3, winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 24-17).
Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs Dax Hill (Bengals) - winner: Dax Hill, holding him to 11 yds on just 33% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.9 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Jan 3

Sun 12:00am
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 26%
16
JAX logo JAX 74%
26
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence262 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt Jacory Croskey-Merritt50 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr. Brian Thomas Jr.4.8 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET JAX -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model JAX -9.4
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 9.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean JAX -3.5 +5.9 pts
The model leans Jaguars by 9.4, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 26-16).
Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 49% win rate yields only 6.5 sacks and 24.1 pressures a game, Josh Hines-Allen (4.2 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
The Commanders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.6 sacks a game — Odafe Oweh (3.2 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
KC logo KC 64%
24
LAC logo LAC 36%
19
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes229 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III61 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.1 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET LAC -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model KC -4.7
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 4.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean KC +1.5 +6.2 pts
The model leans Chiefs by 4.7, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 24-19).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.3 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Jake Slaughter (Chargers) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 68%
25
NE logo NE 32%
19
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson69 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle5.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET NE -2.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model DEN -6.1
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 6.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DEN +2.5 +8.6 pts
Broncos are the pick here, favoured by 6.1 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 25-19).
Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 37 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 6.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
LA logo LA 94%
34
TB logo TB 6%
14
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford259 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams75 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua6.7 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET LA -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model LA -19.4
Sim Prediction: Rams by 19.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -3.5 +15.9 pts
The model leans Rams by 19.4, winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 34-14).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.5 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NO logo NO 36%
20
ATL logo ATL 64%
23
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough269 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson88 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.1 rec, 95 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET ATL -1.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model ATL -3.0
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 3.0
BET VALUE
Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 3.0 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 23-20).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Danny Stutsman (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Quincy Riley, holding him to 24 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 82%
23
CAR logo CAR 18%
16
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young230 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet80 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET SEA -5.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model SEA -7.5
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 7.5
BET VALUE
Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 7.5 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 23-16).
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Tyrice Knight, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 74%
21
CLV logo CLV 26%
12
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones208 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor91 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce4.6 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET IND -1.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model IND -9.1
Sim Prediction: Colts by 9.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean IND -1.5 +7.6 pts
The sim sides with Colts: a 9.1-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (21-12).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 22 yds on just 31% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 16%
16
DAL logo DAL 84%
28
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott288 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams67 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.7 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET DAL -4.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model DAL -11.6
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 11.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DAL -4.5 +7.1 pts
Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 84% of the time by an average of 11.6 (28-16).
Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 30%
24
MIA logo MIA 70%
32
PASS Malik Willis Malik Willis240 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane126 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore6.2 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET BUF -7.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model MIA -8.1
Sim Prediction: Dolphins by 8.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean MIA +7.5 +15.6 pts
Across 50 simulations, Dolphins come out on top 70% of the time by an average of 8.1 (32-24).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: De'Von Achane, 9.3 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Phidarian Mathis (Bills) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Phidarian Mathis, winning 55% of reps for 0.2 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 40%
16
NYJ logo NYJ 60%
19
PASS Kyler Murray Kyler Murray195 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson4.9 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET MIN -3.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model NYJ -2.9
Sim Prediction: Jets by 2.9
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NYJ +3.5 +6.4 pts
The sim sides with Jets: a 2.9-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (19-16).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Minkah Fitzpatrick, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 82%
25
TEN logo TEN 18%
13
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers234 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren71 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET PIT -1.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model PIT -11.7
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 11.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PIT -1.5 +10.2 pts
Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 11.7 (25-13).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.3 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs JC Latham (Titans) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LV logo LV 64%
25
ARZ logo ARZ 36%
23
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins291 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love Jeremiyah Love61 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker6.6 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LV -1.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model LV -2.5
Sim Prediction: Raiders by 2.5
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Raiders win 64% of them, by 2.5 on average (25-23).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 8.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 62%
24
CHI logo CHI 38%
18
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams237 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs86 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -1.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model DET -6.2
Sim Prediction: Lions by 6.2
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DET +1.5 +7.7 pts
The model leans Lions by 6.2, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 24-18).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Gervon Dexter Sr. (Bears) vs Christian Mahogany (Lions) - winner: Gervon Dexter Sr., winning 58% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 0.4 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
PHI logo PHI 78%
27
SF logo SF 22%
16
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy229 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Makai Lemon Makai Lemon5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET SF -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model PHI -11.1
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 11.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PHI +1.5 +12.6 pts
Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 11.1 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 27-16).
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 36 yds on just 33% open, 0.9 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Jan 4

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 50%
19
GB logo GB 50%
19
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud250 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.3 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET GB -2.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model GB -0.2
Sim Prediction: Packers by 0.2
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 0.2 (19-19).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Braden Smith (Texans) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →