NFL Week 6 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 6

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Oct 15

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 58%
25
DEN logo DEN 42%
24
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix261 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -2.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model SEA -1.7
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 1.7
BET VALUE
The model leans Seahawks by 1.7, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 25-24).
Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 44 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Cooper Kupp (Seahawks) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 37 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 18

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
HST logo HST 52%
20
JAX logo JAX 48%
19
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud234 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.8 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET HST -1.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model HST -1.2
Sim Prediction: Texans by 1.2
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 52% of the time by an average of 1.2 (20-19).
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 37 yds on just 35% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CHI logo CHI 46%
23
ATL logo ATL 54%
25
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams244 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson99 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CHI -3 O/U 47.5 vs Model ATL -1.7
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 1.7
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 54% of them, by 1.7 on average (25-23).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Kyler Gordon (Bears) - winner: Kyler Gordon, holding him to 19 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 72%
18
CLV logo CLV 28%
11
PASS Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson174 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry76 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.3 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET BLT -6.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model BLT -6.4
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 6.4
BET VALUE
Ravens are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 18-11).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Chidobe Awuzie, holding him to 20 yds on just 38% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 10%
14
IND logo IND 90%
25
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones247 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor92 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.4 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET IND -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model IND -11.0
Sim Prediction: Colts by 11.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean IND -3.5 +7.5 pts
Run it 50 times and Colts win 90% of them, by 11.0 on average (25-14).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Tanor Bortolini (Colts) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 1.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 36%
19
NE logo NE 64%
23
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye230 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall70 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC A.J. Brown A.J. Brown5.3 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NE -9.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model NE -4.1
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 4.1
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 4.1 (23-19).
Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 12 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Joe Tippmann (Jets) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NO logo NO 60%
22
NYG logo NYG 40%
20
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough295 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.1 rec, 100 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET NYG -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model NO -2.5
Sim Prediction: Saints by 2.5
BET VALUE
The model leans Saints by 2.5, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 22-20).
Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Chris Olave (Saints) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 60% of routes for 8.9/12.4, 80 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 22%
12
PHI logo PHI 78%
23
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young195 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET PHI -6.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model PHI -10.8
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 10.8
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Eagles win 78% of them, by 10.8 on average (23-12).
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jihaad Campbell, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 72%
23
TB logo TB 28%
15
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers257 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET TB -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model PIT -7.6
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 7.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PIT +1.5 +9.1 pts
The model leans Steelers by 7.6, winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 23-15).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Yaya Diaby (Buccaneers) vs Troy Fautanu (Steelers) - winner: Yaya Diaby, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 6%
13
LA logo LA 94%
32
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford300 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams85 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 98 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LA -13.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LA -19.1
Sim Prediction: Rams by 19.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -13.5 +5.6 pts
The model leans Rams by 19.1, winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 32-13).
Myles Garrett (Rams) vs Paris Johnson Jr. (Cardinals) - winner: Myles Garrett, winning 56% of reps for 5.1 sacks and 13.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 44%
20
KC logo KC 56%
24
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes251 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.4 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET KC -2.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model KC -4.6
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 4.6
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Chiefs: a 4.6-point edge and a 56% win rate over 50 runs (24-20).
Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Jake Slaughter (Chargers) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 6.1 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 36%
25
LV logo LV 64%
29
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins283 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker6.0 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BUF -6.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LV -3.9
Sim Prediction: Raiders by 3.9
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LV +6.5 +10.4 pts
Raiders are the pick here, favoured by 3.9 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 29-25).
James Cook (Bills) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: James Cook, 4.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Deone Walker (Bills) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 58% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 42%
22
GB logo GB 58%
23
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love272 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams64 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.3 rec, 89 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET GB -3 O/U 51.5 vs Model GB -0.6
Sim Prediction: Packers by 0.6
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Packers win 58% of them, by 0.6 on average (23-22).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 10.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 19

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 36%
19
SF logo SF 64%
25
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey78 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans5.1 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET SF -5.5 O/U 50.5 vs Model SF -6.5
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 6.5
BET VALUE
The sim sides with 49ers: a 6.5-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (25-19).
Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Laremy Tunsil (Commanders) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 55% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Christian McCaffrey, 4.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →