NFL Week 12 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 12

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Wednesday, Nov 25

Wed 8:00pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 10%
17
LA logo LA 90%
28
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford298 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams83 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.3 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LA -3.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model LA -11.2
Sim Prediction: Rams by 11.2
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -3.5 +7.7 pts
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 90% of the time by an average of 11.2 (28-17).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Warren McClendon Jr. (Rams) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 58% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 9.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →

Thursday, Nov 26

Thu 1:00pm
PROJ
CHI logo CHI 24%
17
DET logo DET 76%
25
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff255 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs92 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DET -2.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model DET -8.1
Sim Prediction: Lions by 8.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DET -2.5 +5.6 pts
Across 50 simulations, Lions come out on top 76% of the time by an average of 8.1 (25-17).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Gervon Dexter Sr. (Bears) vs Christian Mahogany (Lions) - winner: Gervon Dexter Sr., winning 56% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Thu 4:30pm
PROJ
PHI logo PHI 60%
24
DAL logo DAL 40%
20
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott247 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith4.8 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DAL -1.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model PHI -4.5
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 4.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PHI +1.5 +6.0 pts
The model leans Eagles by 4.5, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).
Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 19 yds on just 39% open, 0.2 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Reddy Steward (Cowboys) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 63% of routes for 5.7/7.9, 54 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Thu 8:20pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 78%
31
BUF logo BUF 22%
21
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes249 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III112 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BUF -2.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model KC -9.4
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 9.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean KC +2.5 +11.9 pts
The sim sides with Chiefs: a 9.4-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (31-21).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 8.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 45 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Full breakdown →

Friday, Nov 27

Fri 3:00pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 68%
22
PIT logo PIT 32%
17
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix247 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DEN -1.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model DEN -5.8
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 5.8
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Broncos: a 5.8-point edge and a 68% win rate over 50 runs (22-17).
D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 34 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 57% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 3.7 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 29

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NO logo NO 22%
19
CIN logo CIN 78%
28
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow326 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr. Travis Etienne Jr.45 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase8.0 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET CIN -6.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model CIN -8.7
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 8.7
BET VALUE
Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 8.7 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 28-19).
Chase Young (Saints) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Chase Young, winning 57% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LV logo LV 56%
19
CLV logo CLV 44%
16
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins225 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET CLV -2.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model LV -2.2
Sim Prediction: Raiders by 2.2
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Raiders: a 2.2-point edge and a 56% win rate over 50 runs (19-16).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Eric Stokes, holding him to 23 yds on just 34% open, 0.6 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Carson Schwesinger (Browns) - winner: Carson Schwesinger, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 36%
16
HST logo HST 64%
20
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud233 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry65 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET HST -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model HST -4.7
Sim Prediction: Texans by 4.7
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 4.7 (20-16).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Ronnie Stanley (Ravens) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 10.0 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 12%
15
IND logo IND 88%
28
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones251 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor93 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.5 rec, 92 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET IND -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model IND -12.7
Sim Prediction: Colts by 12.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean IND -2.5 +10.2 pts
Across 50 simulations, Colts come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 12.7 (28-15).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Charvarius Ward, holding him to 17 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 48%
19
MIA logo MIA 52%
19
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith208 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.1 TD
MARKET MIA -1.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model MIA -0.3
Sim Prediction: Dolphins by 0.3
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Dolphins: a 0.3-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (19-19).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.6 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 72%
23
MIN logo MIN 28%
17
PASS Kyler Murray Kyler Murray217 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson91 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.3 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET MIN -4.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model ATL -6.3
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 6.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +4.5 +10.8 pts
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 72% of them, by 6.3 on average (23-17).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Tavierre Thomas (Vikings) - winner: Tavierre Thomas, holding him to 14 yds on just 34% open, 0.4 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 12%
12
JAX logo JAX 88%
26
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence233 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr. Brian Thomas Jr.4.0 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET JAX -5.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model JAX -13.9
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 13.9
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean JAX -5.5 +8.4 pts
The sim sides with Jaguars: a 13.9-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (26-12).
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 4.7 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Cor'Dale Flott, holding him to 41 yds on just 40% open, 0.3 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 32%
20
ARZ logo ARZ 68%
25
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett263 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love Jeremiyah Love66 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Terry McLaurin Terry McLaurin4.8 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET WAS -4.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model ARZ -5.7
Sim Prediction: Cardinals by 5.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ARZ +4.5 +10.2 pts
Across 50 simulations, Cardinals come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 5.7 (25-20).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 9.4 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Trey McBride (Cardinals) vs Sonny Styles (Commanders) - winner: Trey McBride, open on 60% of routes for 5.2/6.0, 54 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 88%
31
SF logo SF 12%
19
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet72 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Cooper Kupp Cooper Kupp5.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SF -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model SEA -12.4
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 12.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean SEA +1.5 +13.9 pts
The sim sides with Seahawks: a 12.4-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (31-19).
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 41 yds on just 38% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 6.0/7.8, 58 yds a game - separation all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 50%
21
LAC logo LAC 50%
22
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton59 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC A.J. Brown A.J. Brown5.9 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET LAC -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model LAC -0.9
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 0.9
BET VALUE
The model leans Chargers by 0.9, winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).
Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 58% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 8.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 33 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 30

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 50%
19
TB logo TB 50%
17
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young225 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.6 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET TB -3.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model CAR -1.4
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 1.4
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Panthers come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 1.4 (19-17).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Robert Rochell (Panthers) - winner: Robert Rochell, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →