NFL Week 12 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

2026 Season · Week 12

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

Wednesday, Nov 25

Wed 8:00pm

PROJ

GB 8%

LA 92%

PASS

Matthew Stafford275 pass yds, 1.9 TD

RUSH

Kyren Williams78 rush yds, 0.8 TD

REC

Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Rams by 15.2

Run it 50 times and Rams win 92% of them, by 15.2 on average (29-14).

MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 0.8 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.

Full breakdown →

Thursday, Nov 26

Thu 1:00pm

PROJ

CHI 14%

DET 86%

PASS

Jared Goff265 pass yds, 2.2 TD

RUSH

Jahmyr Gibbs96 rush yds, 1.2 TD

REC

Amon-Ra St. Brown6.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Lions by 13.1

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 13.1 and winning 86% of 50 sims (projected 32-18).

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.

Full breakdown →

Thu 4:30pm

PROJ

PHI 36%

DAL 64%

PASS

Dak Prescott275 pass yds, 1.9 TD

RUSH

Javonte Williams62 rush yds, 0.6 TD

REC

CeeDee Lamb6.0 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 3.4

Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 3.4 (23-20).

Jonathan Greenard (Eagles) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Greenard, winning 55% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 9.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.

Full breakdown →

Thu 8:20pm

PROJ

KC 78%

BUF 22%

PASS

Patrick Mahomes256 pass yds, 1.6 TD

RUSH

Kenneth Walker III103 rush yds, 1.3 TD

REC

Rashee Rice5.6 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD

Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 9.9

The sim sides with Chiefs: a 9.9-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (29-20).

Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 7.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Rashee Rice, open on 67% of routes for 6.3/8.7, 57 yds a game - separation all day.

Full breakdown →

Friday, Nov 27

Fri 3:00pm

PROJ

DEN 46%

PIT 54%

PASS

Aaron Rodgers248 pass yds, 1.3 TD

RUSH

Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Steelers by 4.0

Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 4.0 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 20-15).

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 29

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

NO 26%

CIN 74%

PASS

Joe Burrow352 pass yds, 2.8 TD

RUSH

Chase Brown40 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Chris Olave8.1 rec, 116 yds, 0.6 TD

Sim Prediction: Bengals by 6.6

The model leans Bengals by 6.6, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 28-22).

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.

Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 65% of routes for 10.6/11.9, 94 yds a game - money in this spot.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

LV 60%

CLV 40%

PASS

Deshaun Watson241 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Quinshon Judkins41 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Denzel Boston6.0 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Raiders by 1.9

The sim sides with Raiders: a 1.9-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (19-17).

Maxx Crosby (Raiders) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Maxx Crosby, winning 56% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 9.2 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

BLT 50%

HST 50%

PASS

C.J. Stroud255 pass yds, 1.5 TD

RUSH

Derrick Henry67 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Nico Collins5.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.6 TD

Sim Prediction: Texans by 1.2

Run it 50 times and Texans win 50% of them, by 1.2 on average (20-19).

David Montgomery (Texans) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.

Nico Collins (Texans) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 59% of routes for 7.9/9.4, 73 yds a game - a matchup to attack.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

NYG 36%

IND 64%

PASS

Daniel Jones258 pass yds, 1.4 TD

RUSH

Jonathan Taylor65 rush yds, 0.7 TD

REC

Malik Nabers6.3 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD

Sim Prediction: Colts by 2.6

The model leans Colts by 2.6, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 23-20).

Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Bernhard Raimann (Colts) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 7.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.

Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Francis Mauigoa (Giants) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 56% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 1.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

NYJ 92%

MIA 8%

PASS

Geno Smith218 pass yds, 1.4 TD

RUSH

Breece Hall69 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Jets by 10.3

Jets are the pick here, favoured by 10.3 and winning 92% of 50 sims (projected 22-11).

Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 58% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.

Breece Hall (Jets) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.

Full breakdown →

Sun 1:00pm

PROJ

ATL 72%

MIN 28%

PASS

Kyler Murray235 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

Bijan Robinson136 rush yds, 1.8 TD

REC

Drake London6.0 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Falcons by 7.2

Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 7.2 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 28-21).

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.5 yds a carry - a problem for the front.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Justin Jefferson, open on 60% of routes for 5.8/7.5, 53 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:05pm

PROJ

TEN 14%

JAX 86%

PASS

Trevor Lawrence237 pass yds, 1.7 TD

RUSH

Bhayshul Tuten67 rush yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Parker Washington4.3 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 14.4

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 14.4 and winning 86% of 50 sims (projected 24-9).

Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Bhayshul Tuten, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

WAS 46%

ARZ 54%

PASS

Jacoby Brissett281 pass yds, 1.8 TD

RUSH

Jacory Croskey-Merritt54 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Michael Wilson8.5 rec, 108 yds, 0.5 TD

Sim Prediction: Cardinals by 0.8

The model leans Cardinals by 0.8, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 21-20).

Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - the front wins up front.

Full breakdown →

Sun 4:25pm

PROJ

SEA 60%

SF 40%

PASS

Sam Darnold231 pass yds, 1.2 TD

RUSH

Christian McCaffrey63 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.5 rec, 89 yds, 0.2 TD

Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 2.4

Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 2.4 (20-17).

Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 7.8/10.6, 73 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.

Full breakdown →

Sun 8:20pm

PROJ

NE 56%

LAC 44%

PASS

Drake Maye238 pass yds, 1.1 TD

RUSH

Omarion Hampton47 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Romeo Doubs4.1 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD

Sim Prediction: Patriots by 1.0

Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 1.0 (18-17).

Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 20 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a read taken away.

Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 7.0 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.

Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 30

Mon 8:15pm

PROJ

CAR 62%

TB 38%

PASS

Bryce Young253 pass yds, 1.6 TD

RUSH

Bucky Irving60 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Tetairoa McMillan5.8 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD

Sim Prediction: Panthers by 3.8

Across 50 simulations, Panthers come out on top 62% of the time by an average of 3.8 (22-18).

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Antoine Winfield Jr., holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Devin Lloyd (Panthers) - winner: Bucky Irving, 4.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.

Full breakdown →