NFL Week 11 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 11

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Nov 19

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 38%
19
HST logo HST 62%
23
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud241 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET HST -5.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model HST -3.2
Sim Prediction: Texans by 3.2
BET VALUE
Texans are the pick here, favoured by 3.2 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 23-19).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Bernhard Raimann (Colts) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 56% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 8.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 22

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 70%
30
BUF logo BUF 30%
25
PASS Josh Allen Josh Allen252 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane125 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore6.1 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET BUF -11.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model MIA -4.8
Sim Prediction: Dolphins by 4.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean MIA +11.5 +16.3 pts
Dolphins are the pick here, favoured by 4.8 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 30-25).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: De'Von Achane, 9.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Phidarian Mathis (Bills) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Phidarian Mathis, winning 57% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 3.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 60%
18
CAR logo CAR 40%
15
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young216 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry77 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BLT -4.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model BLT -2.2
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 2.2
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 60% of them, by 2.2 on average (18-15).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.2 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Roquan Smith (Ravens) - winner: Roquan Smith, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NO logo NO 42%
19
CHI logo CHI 58%
24
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams265 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift D'Andre Swift55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.0 rec, 92 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -6.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model CHI -4.8
Sim Prediction: Bears by 4.8
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 4.8 (24-19).
Pressure could be scarce for the Bears — a 49% win rate, 4.0 sacks and 14.5 pressures a game, and Montez Sweat (1.0 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.3 sacks a game (Chase Young (3.8 sacks, 10.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 22%
17
DAL logo DAL 78%
26
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott272 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams65 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET DAL -6.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model DAL -9.1
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 9.1
BET VALUE
Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 9.1 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 26-17).
Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Cedric Gray (Titans) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Cooper Beebe (Cowboys) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TB logo TB 16%
14
DET logo DET 84%
28
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff243 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown6.5 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DET -4.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model DET -13.2
Sim Prediction: Lions by 13.2
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DET -4.5 +8.7 pts
Run it 50 times and Lions win 84% of them, by 13.2 on average (28-14).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Brian Branch, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 18%
16
KC logo KC 82%
25
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett242 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.0 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -11.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model KC -8.7
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 8.7
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Chiefs: a 8.7-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (25-16).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.4 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 74%
27
NYG logo NYG 26%
17
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence269 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo43 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr. Brian Thomas Jr.5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET JAX -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model JAX -9.9
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 9.9
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean JAX -1.5 +8.4 pts
The sim sides with Jaguars: a 9.9-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (27-17).
Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Jourdan Lewis (Jaguars) - winner: Jourdan Lewis, holding him to 14 yds on just 40% open, 0.3 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 38%
19
LAC logo LAC 62%
21
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith223 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson6.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET LAC -9.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model LAC -2.0
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 2.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NYJ +9.5 +7.5 pts
Run it 50 times and Chargers win 62% of them, by 2.0 on average (21-19).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Demario Davis (Jets) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LV logo LV 6%
14
DEN logo DEN 94%
30
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix242 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle5.9 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET DEN -8.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model DEN -16.0
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 16.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DEN -8.5 +7.5 pts
The sim sides with Broncos: a 16.0-point edge and a 94% win rate over 50 runs (30-14).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 34 yds on just 34% open, 1.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 40%
17
PHI logo PHI 60%
20
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts214 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith4.4 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET PHI -5.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model PHI -2.8
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 2.8
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 2.8 (20-17).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 42%
19
SF logo SF 58%
23
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy263 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey63 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans5.0 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET SF -3.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model SF -4.1
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 4.1
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, 49ers come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 4.1 (23-19).
Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 49% win rate yields only 4.2 sacks and 21.6 pressures a game, led by Nick Bosa (1.8 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game).
Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 50% win rate, 5.9 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game (Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 23

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 86%
33
WAS logo WAS 14%
17
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow335 pass yds, 2.7 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt Jacory Croskey-Merritt55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.9 rec, 102 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET CIN -1.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model CIN -15.8
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 15.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CIN -1.5 +14.3 pts
The sim sides with Bengals: a 15.8-point edge and a 86% win rate over 50 runs (33-17).
Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 6.6 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 64% of routes for 10.2/12.8, 91 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →