NFL Week 7 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 7

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Oct 22

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 52%
22
CHI logo CHI 48%
23
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye237 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson69 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model CHI -0.4
Sim Prediction: Bears by 0.4
BET VALUE
Bears are the pick here, favoured by 0.4 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 23-22).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 45 yds on just 35% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 25

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 54%
19
NO logo NO 46%
19
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers254 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren61 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave6.6 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET PIT -2.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model PIT -0.4
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 0.4
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 54% of the time by an average of 0.4 (19-19).
Chase Young (Saints) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Chase Young, winning 56% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 57% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 34%
20
ATL logo ATL 66%
26
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy257 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson103 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans4.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET SF -4.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model ATL -6.5
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 6.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +4.5 +11.0 pts
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 66% of them, by 6.5 on average (26-20).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Drake London (Falcons) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 7.2/9.6, 57 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 62%
21
BLT logo BLT 38%
19
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow289 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry91 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.0 rec, 84 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET BLT -3.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model CIN -2.0
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 2.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CIN +3.5 +5.5 pts
Run it 50 times and Bengals win 62% of them, by 2.0 on average (21-19).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 56% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TB logo TB 38%
16
CAR logo CAR 62%
20
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young242 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard60 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.6 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET TB -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model CAR -4.6
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 4.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CAR +1.5 +6.1 pts
The model leans Panthers by 4.6, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 20-16).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Robert Rochell (Panthers) - winner: Robert Rochell, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 12%
13
HST logo HST 88%
27
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud263 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.6 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET HST -5.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model HST -13.7
Sim Prediction: Texans by 13.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean HST -5.5 +8.2 pts
Texans are the pick here, favoured by 13.7 and winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 27-13).
Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) - winner: Derek Stingley Jr., holding him to 15 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 66%
23
MIN logo MIN 34%
17
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones225 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor84 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.2 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET MIN -3 O/U 47.5 vs Model IND -6.2
Sim Prediction: Colts by 6.2
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean IND +3 +9.2 pts
The model leans Colts by 6.2, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 23-17).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 32%
18
NYJ logo NYJ 68%
24
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith206 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall84 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET NYJ -2.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model NYJ -5.5
Sim Prediction: Jets by 5.5
BET VALUE
Jets are the pick here, favoured by 5.5 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 24-18).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 56%
17
TEN logo TEN 44%
16
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward225 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins67 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Carnell Tate Carnell Tate4.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET TEN -2.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model CLV -1.0
Sim Prediction: Browns by 1.0
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Browns come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 1.0 (17-16).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Cor'Dale Flott, holding him to 23 yds on just 35% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Austin Schlottmann (Titans) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 57% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 88%
28
ARZ logo ARZ 12%
14
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix276 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins63 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 102 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET DEN -7.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model DEN -14.0
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 14.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DEN -7.5 +6.5 pts
Run it 50 times and Broncos win 88% of them, by 14.0 on average (28-14).
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 38 yds on just 36% open, 0.8 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 55% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 7.2 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 40%
19
DET logo DET 60%
23
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff257 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs78 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DET -1.5 O/U 50.5 vs Model DET -4.5
Sim Prediction: Lions by 4.5
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Lions: a 4.5-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (23-19).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Zach Tom (Packers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 8.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Blake Miller (Lions) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 88%
31
LV logo LV 12%
15
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford276 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams86 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua6.8 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LA -7.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model LA -15.6
Sim Prediction: Rams by 15.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -7.5 +8.1 pts
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 15.6 (31-15).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 48 yds on just 36% open, 0.8 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 36%
20
SEA logo SEA 64%
24
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes236 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -3 O/U 45.5 vs Model SEA -4.7
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 4.7
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Seahawks: a 4.7-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (24-20).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Grey Zabel (Seahawks) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 1.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 26

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 22%
16
PHI logo PHI 78%
25
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts247 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley59 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Makai Lemon Makai Lemon5.3 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET PHI -3 O/U 48.5 vs Model PHI -8.3
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 8.3
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Eagles win 78% of them, by 8.3 on average (25-16).
Jalyx Hunt (Eagles) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Jalyx Hunt, winning 56% of reps for 0.7 sacks and 3.8 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 17 yds on just 38% open, 0.3 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →