NFL Week 14 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 14
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
Thursday, Dec 10
Thu
8:15pm
PROJ
MIN 30%
NE 70%
PASS
Drake Maye209 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Drake Maye209 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Rhamondre Stevenson67 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson67 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
A.J. Brown4.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
A.J. Brown4.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
NE -4.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model NE -8.2
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 8.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 70% of the time by an average of 8.2 (25-17).
Jauan Jennings (Vikings) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 20 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Sunday, Dec 13
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
TB 20%
BLT 80%
PASS
Lamar Jackson183 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Lamar Jackson183 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Derrick Henry78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Zay Flowers4.1 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
Zay Flowers4.1 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET
BLT -6 O/U 48.5 vs Model BLT -6.8
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 6.8
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Ravens come out on top 80% of the time by an average of 6.8 (20-13).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
NO 54%
CAR 46%
PASS
Tyler Shough246 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Tyler Shough246 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Chuba Hubbard55 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Chuba Hubbard55 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Chris Olave7.0 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave7.0 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
CAR -2.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model NO -0.4
Sim Prediction: Saints by 0.4
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Saints win 54% of them, by 0.4 on average (19-19).
Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Travis Etienne Jr., 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
ATL 86%
CLV 14%
PASS
Michael Penix Jr.194 pass yds, 1.0 TD
Michael Penix Jr.194 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson88 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Bijan Robinson88 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Drake London5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
Drake London5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
CLV -1.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model ATL -11.8
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 11.8
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean ATL +1.5 +13.3 pts
The sim sides with Falcons: a 11.8-point edge and a 86% win rate over 50 runs (23-11).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Xavier Watts, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
TEN 6%
DET 94%
PASS
Jared Goff229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Jared Goff229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Jahmyr Gibbs113 rush yds, 1.6 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs113 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC
Amon-Ra St. Brown5.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown5.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
DET -7.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model DET -19.3
Sim Prediction: Lions by 19.3
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean DET -7.5 +11.8 pts
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 19.3 and winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 30-11).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 7.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs JC Latham (Titans) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 58% of reps for 5.6 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
CHI 54%
MIA 46%
PASS
Caleb Williams234 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Caleb Williams234 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
De'Von Achane91 rush yds, 0.6 TD
De'Von Achane91 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Rome Odunze4.6 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
Rome Odunze4.6 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
CHI -5.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model MIA -0.3
Sim Prediction: Dolphins by 0.3
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean MIA +5.5 +5.8 pts
Dolphins are the pick here, favoured by 0.3 and winning 46% of 50 sims (projected 21-21).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Jaylon Johnson, holding him to 32 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
DEN 74%
NYJ 26%
PASS
Bo Nix253 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Bo Nix253 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Breece Hall71 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Breece Hall71 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle5.5 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
Jaylen Waddle5.5 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
DEN -5.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model DEN -6.8
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 6.8
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Broncos: a 6.8-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (23-16).
Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 11 yds on just 37% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
IND 48%
PHI 52%
PASS
Jalen Hurts203 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Jalen Hurts203 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Jonathan Taylor97 rush yds, 0.9 TD
Jonathan Taylor97 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC
Alec Pierce5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
Alec Pierce5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
PHI -5.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model IND -0.2
Sim Prediction: Colts by 0.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean IND +5.5 +5.7 pts
The model leans Colts by 0.2, winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 20-20).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Justin Walley (Colts) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 58% of routes for 6.0/7.8, 52 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Sun
1:00pm
PROJ
HST 82%
WAS 18%
PASS
C.J. Stroud263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
C.J. Stroud263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
David Montgomery69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Nico Collins5.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
Nico Collins5.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
HST -2.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model HST -11.1
Sim Prediction: Texans by 11.1
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean HST -2.5 +8.6 pts
Texans are the pick here, favoured by 11.1 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 27-16).
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: David Montgomery, 5.1 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Tommy Togiai (Texans) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Tommy Togiai, winning 56% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Sun
4:05pm
PROJ
LAC 56%
LV 44%
PASS
Kirk Cousins269 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Kirk Cousins269 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Omarion Hampton61 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Omarion Hampton61 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Tre Tucker6.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
Tre Tucker6.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
LAC -5.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model LAC -2.9
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 2.9
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Chargers win 56% of them, by 2.9 on average (24-21).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Derwin James Jr., holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
KC 50%
CIN 50%
PASS
Joe Burrow312 pass yds, 1.7 TD
Joe Burrow312 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
Kenneth Walker III81 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Kenneth Walker III81 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
CIN -1.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model KC -0.3
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 0.3
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Chiefs win 50% of them, by 0.3 on average (23-23).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Dylan Fairchild (Bengals) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 55% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 2.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
NYG 18%
SEA 82%
PASS
Sam Darnold246 pass yds, 2.0 TD
Sam Darnold246 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH
Zach Charbonnet79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Zach Charbonnet79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Cooper Kupp5.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
Cooper Kupp5.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
SEA -7.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model SEA -16.1
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 16.1
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean SEA -7.5 +8.6 pts
Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 16.1 (31-15).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 7.4/8.7, 69 yds a game - money in this spot.
Sun
4:25pm
PROJ
LA 90%
SF 10%
PASS
Matthew Stafford278 pass yds, 2.4 TD
Matthew Stafford278 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams91 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Kyren Williams91 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Puka Nacua7.2 rec, 94 yds, 0.6 TD
Puka Nacua7.2 rec, 94 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
LA -1.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model LA -15.7
Sim Prediction: Rams by 15.7
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean LA -1.5 +14.2 pts
Rams are the pick here, favoured by 15.7 and winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 35-20).
Myles Garrett (Rams) vs Colton McKivitz (49ers) - winner: Myles Garrett, winning 55% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 11.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Sun
8:20pm
PROJ
BUF 18%
GB 82%
PASS
Jordan Love286 pass yds, 2.2 TD
Jordan Love286 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH
James Cook68 rush yds, 0.3 TD
James Cook68 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Christian Watson5.4 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
Christian Watson5.4 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET
GB -1.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model GB -8.1
Sim Prediction: Packers by 8.1
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean GB -1.5 +6.6 pts
Run it 50 times and Packers win 82% of them, by 8.1 on average (27-19).
Christian Watson (Packers) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 64% of routes for 7.8/8.9, 91 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Deone Walker (Bills) vs Aaron Banks (Packers) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Monday, Dec 14
Mon
8:15pm
PROJ
PIT 52%
JAX 48%
PASS
Aaron Rodgers248 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Aaron Rodgers248 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Jaylen Warren56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Jaylen Warren56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET
JAX -3 O/U 44.5 vs Model JAX -0.0
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 0.0
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 0.0 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 19-19).
Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 56% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - the front wins up front.