NFL Week 14 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 14

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Dec 10

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 32%
18
NE logo NE 68%
22
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye241 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson52 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Romeo Doubs Romeo Doubs4.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 4.2
The model leans Patriots by 4.2, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 22-18).
Romeo Doubs (Patriots) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 43 yds on just 34% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 19 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Dec 13

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TB logo TB 32%
14
BLT logo BLT 68%
22
PASS Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield194 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 8.1
The model leans Ravens by 8.1, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 22-14).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Teddye Buchanan (Ravens) - winner: Teddye Buchanan, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 65% of routes for 5.6/7.1, 53 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NO logo NO 24%
20
CAR logo CAR 76%
27
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young308 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave8.3 rec, 118 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 6.4
Panthers are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 27-20).
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Akayleb Evans (Panthers) - winner: Akayleb Evans, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 61% of routes for 8.6/10.4, 83 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 84%
29
CLV logo CLV 16%
15
PASS Deshaun Watson Deshaun Watson214 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson139 rush yds, 1.9 TD
REC Denzel Boston Denzel Boston5.2 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 13.6
Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 13.6 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 29-15).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 9.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Mike Hughes, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 2%
13
DET logo DET 98%
34
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff253 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs98 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC Carnell Tate Carnell Tate5.7 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 21.1
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 21.1 and winning 98% of 50 sims (projected 34-13).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 7.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 4.7 sacks and 10.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CHI logo CHI 78%
23
MIA logo MIA 22%
14
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams220 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift D'Andre Swift72 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze4.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Bears by 9.3
Run it 50 times and Bears win 78% of them, by 9.3 on average (23-14).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Clark Phillips III (Bears) - winner: Clark Phillips III, holding him to 24 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: D'Andre Swift, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 48%
16
NYJ logo NYJ 52%
16
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix206 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall59 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Jets by 0.6
The sim sides with Jets: a 0.6-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (16-16).
The Jets may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Kingsley Enagbare (1.1 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) out front.
Pressure could be scarce for the Broncos — a 50% win rate, 6.1 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game — Jonah Elliss (2.2 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 42%
18
PHI logo PHI 58%
20
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts228 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 2.7
Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.7 (20-18).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 78%
22
WAS logo WAS 22%
14
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud272 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Texans by 8.2
Texans are the pick here, favoured by 8.2 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 22-14).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Brandon Coleman (Commanders) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 4.7 sacks and 10.1 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Jake Hansen (Texans) - winner: Jake Hansen, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 48%
18
LV logo LV 52%
19
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins253 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton47 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker5.4 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Raiders by 0.5
The model leans Raiders by 0.5, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 19-18).
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: Tony Jefferson, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 48%
25
CIN logo CIN 52%
26
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow340 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III93 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 101 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 0.8
The model leans Bengals by 0.8, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 26-25).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 20%
12
SEA logo SEA 80%
21
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold244 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson Emanuel Wilson48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 9.6
Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 80% of them, by 9.6 on average (21-12).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Josh Jobe (Seahawks) - winner: Josh Jobe, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: Greg Newsome II, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 82%
28
SF logo SF 18%
14
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford269 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua6.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 13.5
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 13.5 (28-14).
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 36%
20
GB logo GB 64%
23
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love315 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook67 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.6 rec, 106 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Packers by 2.9
The sim sides with Packers: a 2.9-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-20).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Maxwell Hairston, holding him to 1.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Christian Watson (Packers) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 66% of routes for 8.9/11.0, 90 yds a game - separation all day.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Dec 14

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 42%
18
JAX logo JAX 58%
20
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren58 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 2.3
Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 2.3 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 20-18).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 58% of routes for 7.0/8.9, 71 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →