NFL Week 3 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 3

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Sep 24

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 50%
21
GB logo GB 50%
21
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love255 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson89 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.6 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET GB -7.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model GB -0.3
Sim Prediction: Packers by 0.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +7.5 +7.2 pts
Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 0.3 (21-21).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Carrington Valentine (Packers) - winner: Carrington Valentine, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Sep 27

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 66%
30
BUF logo BUF 34%
24
PASS Justin Herbert Justin Herbert275 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton70 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore6.3 rec, 83 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET BUF -2.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model LAC -6.5
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 6.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LAC +2.5 +9.0 pts
Run it 50 times and Chargers win 66% of them, by 6.5 on average (30-24).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 6.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 58%
16
CLV logo CLV 42%
13
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young209 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CAR -1.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model CAR -2.8
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 2.8
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Panthers come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.8 (16-13).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Mike Jackson (Panthers) - winner: Mike Jackson, holding him to 22 yds on just 35% open, 0.7 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 20%
14
DET logo DET 80%
23
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff243 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs69 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown5.9 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET DET -9.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model DET -9.4
Sim Prediction: Lions by 9.4
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Lions: a 9.4-point edge and a 80% win rate over 50 runs (23-14).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Jets) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 7.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 48%
20
IND logo IND 52%
19
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud234 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor75 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET HST -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model HST -1.4
Sim Prediction: Texans by 1.4
BET VALUE
The model leans Texans by 1.4, winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 20-19).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Jalen Travis (Colts) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 56% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 8.1 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 48%
20
JAX logo JAX 52%
21
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye234 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC A.J. Brown A.J. Brown5.7 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET JAX -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model JAX -1.1
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 1.1
BET VALUE
The model leans Jaguars by 1.1, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 21-20).
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 33 yds on just 34% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Patrick Mekari (Jaguars) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 54%
25
MIA logo MIA 46%
22
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes253 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane88 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.4 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -7 O/U 44.5 vs Model KC -2.7
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 2.7
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 54% of the time by an average of 2.7 (25-22).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 28 yds on just 34% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 52%
18
NYG logo NYG 48%
20
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward248 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.6 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET NYG -3 O/U 45.5 vs Model NYG -1.5
Sim Prediction: Giants by 1.5
BET VALUE
Giants are the pick here, favoured by 1.5 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 20-18).
Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 57% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: Alontae Taylor, holding him to 23 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 54%
23
PIT logo PIT 46%
21
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow290 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren67 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CIN -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model CIN -1.9
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 1.9
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Bengals: a 1.9-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (23-21).
Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 57% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 86%
32
WAS logo WAS 14%
17
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold242 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet91 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -3.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model SEA -15.0
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 15.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean SEA -3.5 +11.5 pts
Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 86% of them, by 15.0 on average (32-17).
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 5.9/7.8, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 46%
21
SF logo SF 54%
25
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy292 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey61 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Michael Wilson Michael Wilson5.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SF -11.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model SF -4.0
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 4.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ARZ +11.5 +7.5 pts
The model leans 49ers by 4.0, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 25-21).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 6.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 54%
18
TB logo TB 46%
18
PASS Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield218 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones Aaron Jones39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Godwin Chris Godwin5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET TB -1.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model TB -0.2
Sim Prediction: Buccaneers by 0.2
BET VALUE
The model leans Buccaneers by 0.2, winning 46% of 50 sims (projected 18-18).
Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 39 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Byron Murphy Jr. (Vikings) - winner: Byron Murphy Jr., holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 36%
20
DAL logo DAL 64%
24
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers5.4 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BLT -2.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model DAL -3.7
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 3.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DAL +2.5 +6.2 pts
Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 3.7 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).
Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 56% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 4.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs DaRon Bland (Cowboys) - winner: DaRon Bland, holding him to 17 yds on just 39% open, 0.5 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LV logo LV 44%
20
NO logo NO 56%
22
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough269 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty Ashton Jeanty59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave6.7 rec, 93 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NO -3 O/U 42.5 vs Model NO -2.1
Sim Prediction: Saints by 2.1
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Saints win 56% of them, by 2.1 on average (22-20).
Chase Young (Saints) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Chase Young, winning 56% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 4.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Travis Etienne Jr., 4.7 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 74%
28
DEN logo DEN 26%
19
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford283 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 90 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LA -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model LA -9.0
Sim Prediction: Rams by 9.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -2.5 +6.5 pts
The sim sides with Rams: a 9.0-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (28-19).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Taurean York (Broncos) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Sep 28

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
PHI logo PHI 76%
24
CHI logo CHI 24%
15
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts211 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley73 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model PHI -8.8
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 8.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PHI +1.5 +10.3 pts
Run it 50 times and Eagles win 76% of them, by 8.8 on average (24-15).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 36 yds on just 35% open, 0.9 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →