NFL Week 4 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 4

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Oct 1

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 84%
21
CLV logo CLV 16%
10
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers234 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren56 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET PIT -2.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model PIT -10.8
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 10.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PIT -2.5 +8.3 pts
The model leans Steelers by 10.8, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 21-10).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Joey Porter Jr., holding him to 24 yds on just 32% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Oct 4

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
IND logo IND 78%
28
WAS logo WAS 22%
17
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones254 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor94 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.5 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET WAS -1.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model IND -10.8
Sim Prediction: Colts by 10.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean IND +1.5 +12.3 pts
The sim sides with Colts: a 10.8-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (28-17).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Alec Pierce (Colts) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Alec Pierce, open on 64% of routes for 6.8/9.3, 71 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 24%
13
BLT logo BLT 76%
25
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward210 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry130 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC Carnell Tate Carnell Tate4.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET BLT -8.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model BLT -11.6
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 11.6
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Ravens: a 11.6-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (25-13).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Derrick Henry, 8.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Corey Bullock (Ravens) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 64%
28
BUF logo BUF 36%
23
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye245 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson88 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore6.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET BUF -3 O/U 49.5 vs Model NE -5.5
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 5.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NE +3 +8.5 pts
Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 5.5 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 28-23).
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 6.7 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 49 yds on just 33% open, 1.1 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 34%
17
CHI logo CHI 66%
21
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams223 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.0 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -8.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model CHI -4.3
Sim Prediction: Bears by 4.3
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 4.3 (21-17).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 46%
20
CIN logo CIN 54%
22
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow306 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten40 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.8 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CIN -2.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model CIN -1.8
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 1.8
BET VALUE
The model leans Bengals by 1.8, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 22-20).
Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 55% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 12.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 37 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 50%
23
HST logo HST 50%
25
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud270 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.9 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET HST -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model HST -1.7
Sim Prediction: Texans by 1.7
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 1.7 (25-23).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 58% of reps for 4.9 sacks and 12.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Nico Collins (Texans) vs Cobie Durant (Cowboys) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 59% of routes for 7.7/9.6, 72 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 60%
21
NYG logo NYG 40%
19
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett261 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love Jeremiyah Love61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.4 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NYG -7 O/U 45.5 vs Model ARZ -1.7
Sim Prediction: Cardinals by 1.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ARZ +7 +8.7 pts
The model leans Cardinals by 1.7, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.5 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 64%
23
PHI logo PHI 36%
17
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford270 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams73 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 94 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LA -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LA -6.0
Sim Prediction: Rams by 6.0
BET VALUE
The model leans Rams by 6.0, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 23-17).
DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 58% of routes for 6.8/8.3, 52 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 74%
24
TB logo TB 26%
15
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love240 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs57 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.3 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET GB -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model GB -9.2
Sim Prediction: Packers by 9.2
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean GB -1.5 +7.7 pts
The sim sides with Packers: a 9.2-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (24-15).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Benjamin St-Juste (Packers) - winner: Benjamin St-Juste, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) vs Zach Tom (Packers) - winner: Rueben Bain Jr., winning 56% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 64%
23
MIN logo MIN 36%
20
PASS Kyler Murray Kyler Murray227 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane90 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET MIN -7.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model MIA -3.6
Sim Prediction: Dolphins by 3.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean MIA +7.5 +11.1 pts
The sim sides with Dolphins: a 3.6-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-20).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Josh Metellus (Vikings) - winner: De'Von Achane, 7.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 29 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 68%
23
LV logo LV 32%
17
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins236 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III66 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.3 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -5.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model KC -6.5
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 6.5
BET VALUE
The model leans Chiefs by 6.5, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 23-17).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 47 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 24%
19
SEA logo SEA 76%
25
PASS Sam Darnold Sam Darnold242 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet65 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SEA -3 O/U 45.5 vs Model SEA -6.2
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 6.2
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 76% of the time by an average of 6.2 (25-19).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Ty Okada (Seahawks) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Donte Jackson (Chargers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 7.9/8.9, 67 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 66%
25
SF logo SF 34%
19
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix264 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey65 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SF -2.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model DEN -6.0
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 6.0
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DEN +2.5 +8.5 pts
Broncos are the pick here, favoured by 6.0 and winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 25-19).
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 39 yds on just 34% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 72%
22
CAR logo CAR 28%
15
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs77 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.4 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET DET -3 O/U 47.5 vs Model DET -7.0
Sim Prediction: Lions by 7.0
BET VALUE
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 7.0 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 22-15).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Taylor Moton (Panthers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 58% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 9.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Oct 5

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 66%
23
NO logo NO 34%
19
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson86 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave6.0 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET NO -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model ATL -4.4
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 4.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +2.5 +6.9 pts
Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 4.4 and winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 23-19).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.5 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Quincy Riley, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Full breakdown →