NFL Week 1 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 1
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
MODEL THIS WEEK
7-9 straight up
5-11 ATS 2-7 value picks 1-3 best bets 16 of 16 played
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Wednesday, Sep 9
Wed
PROJ FINAL
NE 34%
SEA 66%
PASS
Drake Maye236 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Drake Maye236 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Zach Charbonnet79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Zach Charbonnet79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
SEA -4.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model SEA -3.6
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 3.6
Full breakdown →
✓
SEA won by 3
(model: SEA by 3.6)
NE +4.5 WIN
Lean Over: 23 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 66% of them, by 3.6 on average (25-21).
Cooper Kupp (Seahawks) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 35 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Anthony Bradford (Seahawks) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 60% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Thursday, Sep 10
Thu
PROJ FINAL
SF 10%
LA 90%
PASS
Matthew Stafford287 pass yds, 2.6 TD
Matthew Stafford287 pass yds, 2.6 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams87 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Kyren Williams87 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Puka Nacua7.5 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
Puka Nacua7.5 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET
LA -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model LA -19.1
Sim Prediction: Rams by 19.1
Full breakdown →
✗
SF won by 20
(model: LA by 19.1)
BEST BET LA -3.5 LOSS
Lean Over: 34 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Rams win 90% of them, by 19.1 on average (36-17).
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 38 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Sunday, Sep 13
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CHI 62%
CAR 38%
PASS
Bryce Young222 pass yds, 1.1 TD
Bryce Young222 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH
Chuba Hubbard66 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Chuba Hubbard66 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
CHI -2.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model CHI -2.7
Sim Prediction: Bears by 2.7
Full breakdown →
✓
CHI won by 22
(model: CHI by 2.7)
CHI -2.5 WIN
Lean Under: 96 pts, over
The model leans Bears by 2.7, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 20-18).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Mike Jackson (Panthers) - winner: Mike Jackson, holding him to 42 yds on just 37% open, 1.0 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
TB 16%
CIN 84%
PASS
Joe Burrow308 pass yds, 2.4 TD
Joe Burrow308 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH
Chase Brown51 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Chase Brown51 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Ja'Marr Chase8.0 rec, 94 yds, 0.5 TD
Ja'Marr Chase8.0 rec, 94 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
CIN -3.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model CIN -10.2
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 10.2
Full breakdown →
✓
CIN won by 6
(model: CIN by 10.2)
VALUE CIN -3.5 WIN
Lean Under: 60 pts, over
Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 10.2 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 28-18).
Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 27 yds on just 35% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Jalen Davis (Bengals) - winner: Jalen Davis, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NO 18%
DET 82%
PASS
Jared Goff267 pass yds, 1.7 TD
Jared Goff267 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
Jahmyr Gibbs85 rush yds, 1.1 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs85 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC
Chris Olave6.5 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave6.5 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
DET -7 O/U 49 vs Model DET -10.2
Sim Prediction: Lions by 10.2
Full breakdown →
✓
DET won by 1
(model: DET by 10.2)
DET -7 LOSS
Lean Under: 61 pts, over
The sim sides with Lions: a 10.2-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (26-16).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 7.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Danny Stutsman (Saints) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
BUF 16%
HST 84%
PASS
C.J. Stroud276 pass yds, 1.6 TD
C.J. Stroud276 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery76 rush yds, 0.6 TD
David Montgomery76 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Nico Collins6.3 rec, 97 yds, 0.7 TD
Nico Collins6.3 rec, 97 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET
BUF -1 O/U 44.5 vs Model HST -11.6
Sim Prediction: Texans by 11.6
Full breakdown →
✗
BUF won by 5
(model: HST by 11.6)
BEST BET HST +1 LOSS
Lean Over: 67 pts, over
The model leans Texans by 11.6, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 29-18).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 40 yds on just 34% open, 1.2 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Danielle Hunter (Texans) vs Spencer Brown (Bills) - winner: Danielle Hunter, winning 55% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 9.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
BLT 30%
IND 70%
PASS
Daniel Jones227 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Daniel Jones227 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry81 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Derrick Henry81 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Alec Pierce5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
Alec Pierce5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
BLT -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model IND -4.9
Sim Prediction: Colts by 4.9
Full breakdown →
✗
BLT won by 18
(model: IND by 4.9)
VALUE IND +3.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 64 pts, over
Run it 50 times and Colts win 70% of them, by 4.9 on average (22-17).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Juanyeh Thomas (Colts) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
CLV 10%
JAX 90%
PASS
Trevor Lawrence214 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Trevor Lawrence214 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Quinshon Judkins51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Quinshon Judkins51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Brian Thomas Jr.4.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
Brian Thomas Jr.4.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
JAX -7.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model JAX -10.9
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 10.9
Full breakdown →
✓
JAX won by 24
(model: JAX by 10.9)
JAX -7.5 WIN
Lean Under: 44 pts, over
Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 90% of the time by an average of 10.9 (22-12).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Montaric Brown (Jaguars) - winner: Montaric Brown, holding him to 18 yds on just 35% open, 0.8 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 55% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
ATL 54%
PIT 46%
PASS
Aaron Rodgers246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Aaron Rodgers246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson83 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Bijan Robinson83 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Drake London5.7 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
Drake London5.7 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
PIT -3 O/U 42 vs Model ATL -0.9
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 0.9
Full breakdown →
✗
PIT won by 7
(model: ATL by 0.9)
ATL +3 LOSS
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 54% of them, by 0.9 on average (21-20).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs DeShon Elliott (Steelers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Jamel Dean, holding him to 12 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
NYJ 76%
TEN 24%
PASS
Cam Ward211 pass yds, 0.9 TD
Cam Ward211 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH
Breece Hall105 rush yds, 1.3 TD
Breece Hall105 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC
Garrett Wilson4.7 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
Garrett Wilson4.7 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET
TEN -2.5 O/U 38.5 vs Model NYJ -9.0
Sim Prediction: Jets by 9.0
Full breakdown →
✓
NYJ won by 13
(model: NYJ by 9.0)
BEST BET NYJ +2.5 WIN
The model leans Jets by 9.0, winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 24-15).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Breece Hall, 6.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Josh Myers (Jets) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
ARZ 20%
LAC 80%
PASS
Jacoby Brissett270 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Jacoby Brissett270 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Omarion Hampton77 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Omarion Hampton77 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Marvin Harrison Jr.5.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
Marvin Harrison Jr.5.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
LAC -10.5 O/U 46 vs Model LAC -10.9
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 10.9
Full breakdown →
✗
ARZ won by 12
(model: LAC by 10.9)
LAC -10.5 LOSS
Lean Over: 40 pts, under
The sim sides with Chargers: a 10.9-point edge and a 80% win rate over 50 runs (30-20).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 6.5 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 5.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
MIA 54%
LV 46%
PASS
Kirk Cousins263 pass yds, 2.0 TD
Kirk Cousins263 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH
De'Von Achane93 rush yds, 1.1 TD
De'Von Achane93 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC
Tre Tucker5.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
Tre Tucker5.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
LV -3.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model MIA -2.1
Sim Prediction: Dolphins by 2.1
Full breakdown →
✗
LV won by 14
(model: MIA by 2.1)
VALUE MIA +3.5 LOSS
Lean Over: 40 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Dolphins win 54% of them, by 2.1 on average (24-21).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: De'Von Achane, 7.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Eric Stokes, holding him to 29 yds on just 35% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
GB 64%
MIN 36%
PASS
Jordan Love223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Jordan Love223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Josh Jacobs55 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Josh Jacobs55 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Christian Watson4.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
Christian Watson4.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
GB -1 O/U 45.5 vs Model GB -5.6
Sim Prediction: Packers by 5.6
Full breakdown →
✗
MIN won by 17
(model: GB by 5.6)
GB -1 LOSS
Lean Under: 61 pts, over
Run it 50 times and Packers win 64% of them, by 5.6 on average (20-14).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Brian O'Neill (Vikings) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
WAS 14%
PHI 86%
PASS
Jalen Hurts226 pass yds, 1.7 TD
Jalen Hurts226 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH
Saquon Barkley70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Saquon Barkley70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Makai Lemon5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
Makai Lemon5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
PHI -4.5 O/U 47 vs Model PHI -13.6
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 13.6
Full breakdown →
✓
PHI won by 2
(model: PHI by 13.6)
BEST BET PHI -4.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 46 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Eagles win 86% of them, by 13.6 on average (29-15).
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 5.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Makai Lemon (Eagles) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Makai Lemon, open on 63% of routes for 5.6/7.0, 59 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Sun
PROJ FINAL
DAL 80%
NYG 20%
PASS
Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Javonte Williams61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Javonte Williams61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Malik Nabers6.0 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
Malik Nabers6.0 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
DAL -2.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model DAL -8.7
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 8.7
Full breakdown →
✗
NYG won by 8
(model: DAL by 8.7)
VALUE DAL -2.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 48 pts, under
Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 80% of them, by 8.7 on average (25-16).
Brian Burns (Giants) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Brian Burns, winning 56% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 8.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Monday, Sep 14
Mon
PROJ FINAL
DEN 66%
KC 34%
PASS
Bo Nix238 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Bo Nix238 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Kenneth Walker III64 rush yds, 0.5 TD
Kenneth Walker III64 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle7.7 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
Jaylen Waddle7.7 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
KC -2.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model DEN -3.9
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 3.9
Full breakdown →
✗
KC won by 21
(model: DEN by 3.9)
VALUE DEN +2.5 LOSS
Lean Under: 41 pts, under
The sim sides with Broncos: a 3.9-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (22-18).
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Kahlil Benson (Chiefs) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 57% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.