NFL Week 9 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 9

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Nov 5

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 54%
16
BLT logo BLT 46%
15
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence213 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET BLT -4.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model JAX -0.8
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 0.8
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 54% of them, by 0.8 on average (16-15).
Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs Jourdan Lewis (Jaguars) - winner: Jourdan Lewis, holding him to 16 yds on just 35% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Roquan Smith (Ravens) - winner: Roquan Smith, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 8

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 52%
25
ATL logo ATL 48%
24
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow315 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson102 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase8.0 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CIN -4.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model CIN -0.1
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 0.1
BET VALUE
Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 0.1 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 25-24).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.1 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Dax Hill (Bengals) - winner: Dax Hill, holding him to 19 yds on just 36% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 76%
22
CAR logo CAR 24%
13
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix232 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins62 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle5.8 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DEN -3 O/U 42.5 vs Model DEN -8.8
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 8.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DEN -3 +5.8 pts
Run it 50 times and Broncos win 76% of them, by 8.8 on average (22-13).
Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs Mike Jackson (Panthers) - winner: Mike Jackson, holding him to 36 yds on just 36% open, 0.9 INT a game, - a read taken away.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 42%
22
IND logo IND 58%
26
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones273 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor85 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce6.0 rec, 96 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET DAL -1.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model IND -3.5
Sim Prediction: Colts by 3.5
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Colts: a 3.5-point edge and a 58% win rate over 50 runs (26-22).
Laiatu Latu (Colts) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Laiatu Latu, winning 56% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 8.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.5 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 40%
19
KC logo KC 60%
21
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes233 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall83 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.7 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -9.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model KC -1.7
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 1.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NYJ +9.5 +7.8 pts
The model leans Chiefs by 1.7, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.6 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 72%
24
MIA logo MIA 28%
17
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs76 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET DET -6.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model DET -7.4
Sim Prediction: Lions by 7.4
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Lions: a 7.4-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (24-17).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 20%
13
NO logo NO 80%
22
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.1 rec, 100 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET NO -3.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model NO -9.5
Sim Prediction: Saints by 9.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NO -3.5 +6.0 pts
Saints are the pick here, favoured by 9.5 and winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 22-13).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Kool-Aid McKinstry, holding him to 19 yds on just 38% open, 0.9 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Chris Olave (Saints) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 59% of routes for 8.9/11.1, 86 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 18%
13
PHI logo PHI 82%
25
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts246 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley66 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Makai Lemon Makai Lemon4.9 rec, 73 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET PHI -5.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model PHI -12.2
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 12.2
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PHI -5.5 +6.7 pts
The sim sides with Eagles: a 12.2-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (25-13).
Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Cooper DeJean (Eagles) - winner: Cooper DeJean, holding him to 11 yds on just 36% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 98%
34
WAS logo WAS 2%
14
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford288 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 95 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET LA -4.5 O/U 50.5 vs Model LA -20.5
Sim Prediction: Rams by 20.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -4.5 +16.0 pts
Rams are the pick here, favoured by 20.5 and winning 98% of 50 sims (projected 34-14).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 52%
21
LAC logo LAC 48%
19
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud268 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery52 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins6.3 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LAC -1.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model HST -1.6
Sim Prediction: Texans by 1.6
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Texans: a 1.6-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (21-19).
Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) - winner: Derek Stingley Jr., holding him to 24 yds on just 40% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LV logo LV 46%
21
SF logo SF 54%
24
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy260 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker6.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SF -8.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model SF -2.9
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 2.9
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LV +8.5 +5.6 pts
The sim sides with 49ers: a 2.9-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (24-21).
Nick Bosa (49ers) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 57% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 54%
21
NE logo NE 46%
20
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love240 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.3 rec, 79 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NE -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model GB -1.0
Sim Prediction: Packers by 1.0
BET VALUE
Packers are the pick here, favoured by 1.0 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 21-20).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 6.0 sacks and 10.7 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 16%
17
SEA logo SEA 84%
30
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett258 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet84 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr. Marvin Harrison Jr.5.8 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET SEA -13.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model SEA -13.5
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 13.5
BET VALUE
The model leans Seahawks by 13.5, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 30-17).
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 38 yds on just 38% open, 1.4 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 5.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
TB logo TB 28%
17
CHI logo CHI 72%
25
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift D'Andre Swift55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze4.8 rec, 72 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CHI -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model CHI -7.6
Sim Prediction: Bears by 7.6
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 7.6 (25-17).
The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), led by Montez Sweat (1.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
The Bears' line should hold up: the Buccaneers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 6.2 sacks and 28.0 pressures a game — Elijah Roberts (1.8 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 9

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 32%
22
MIN logo MIN 68%
24
PASS Kyler Murray Kyler Murray256 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook61 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BUF -3 O/U 48.5 vs Model MIN -2.6
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 2.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean MIN +3 +5.6 pts
Across 50 simulations, Vikings come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 2.6 (24-22).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 46 yds on just 40% open, 0.9 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: C.J. Gardner-Johnson, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →