NFL Week 9 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 9

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Nov 5

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 36%
16
BLT logo BLT 64%
18
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence222 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.1 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 2.0
Ravens are the pick here, favoured by 2.0 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 18-16).
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 62% of routes for 6.0/8.1, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 8

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 40%
27
ATL logo ATL 60%
30
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow340 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson109 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Drake London Drake London7.0 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 3.5
Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 3.5 (30-27).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 66% of routes for 9.2/11.6, 79 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 50%
20
CAR logo CAR 50%
20
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young260 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle7.1 rec, 96 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 0.0
The sim sides with Panthers: a 0.0-point edge and a 50% win rate over 50 runs (20-20).
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Monroe Freeling (Panthers) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 57% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 66%
29
IND logo IND 34%
23
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott284 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 5.5
Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 66% of them, by 5.5 on average (29-23).
Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 54%
17
KC logo KC 46%
17
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith222 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III63 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 0.2
The sim sides with Chiefs: a 0.2-point edge and a 46% win rate over 50 runs (17-17).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Dane Belton (Jets) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 90%
31
MIA logo MIA 10%
15
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff250 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs86 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown5.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 16.1
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 16.1 and winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 31-15).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Chris Johnson (Dolphins) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 61% of routes for 6.4/8.9, 57 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 44%
16
NO logo NO 56%
19
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough267 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins40 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.1 rec, 99 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Saints by 2.5
Across 50 simulations, Saints come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 2.5 (19-16).
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kaden Elliss (Saints) - winner: Kaden Elliss, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 30%
13
PHI logo PHI 70%
19
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts228 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.1 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 6.4
Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 19-13).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Tariq Woolen (Eagles) - winner: Tariq Woolen, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Malachi Fields (Giants) vs Cooper DeJean (Eagles) - winner: Cooper DeJean, holding him to 27 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 94%
27
WAS logo WAS 6%
12
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford277 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams70 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua6.8 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 14.3
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 94% of the time by an average of 14.3 (27-12).
Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 36 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Quentin Lake (Rams) - winner: Quentin Lake, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 78%
21
LAC logo LAC 22%
13
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery29 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.9 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Texans by 8.7
The model leans Texans by 8.7, winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 21-13).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Travis Burke (Chargers) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 55% of reps for 4.9 sacks and 9.9 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Derwin James Jr., holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LV logo LV 38%
19
SF logo SF 62%
21
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy259 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans4.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 1.2
The sim sides with 49ers: a 1.2-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (21-19).
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 63% of routes for 6.0/7.4, 62 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 56%
21
NE logo NE 44%
20
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love263 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.2 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Packers by 0.4
Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 0.4 (21-20).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Travis Glover (Packers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 57% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 36%
18
SEA logo SEA 64%
24
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett258 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson Emanuel Wilson46 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.2 rec, 100 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 5.9
Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 64% of them, by 5.9 on average (24-18).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Josh Jobe (Seahawks) - winner: Josh Jobe, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 62% of routes for 9.2/11.5, 87 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
TB logo TB 40%
19
CHI logo CHI 60%
22
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams223 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving Bucky Irving69 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 72 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Bears by 3.6
Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 3.6 (22-19).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Bucky Irving, 4.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 9

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 34%
19
MIN logo MIN 66%
22
PASS Kyler Murray Kyler Murray233 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore4.9 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 2.9
Run it 50 times and Vikings win 66% of them, by 2.9 on average (22-19).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 39 yds on just 37% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Deone Walker (Bills) vs Joe Huber (Vikings) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 4.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →