NFL Week 15 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 15

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Dec 17

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 74%
18
LAC logo LAC 26%
14
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy227 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans4.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 4.5
The model leans 49ers by 4.5, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 18-14).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →

Saturday, Dec 19

Sat 5:00pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 64%
19
PHI logo PHI 36%
16
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts198 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley52 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.8 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 2.4
The sim sides with Seahawks: a 2.4-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (19-16).
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Willie Lampkin (Eagles) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 55% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 6.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sat 8:20pm
PROJ
CHI logo CHI 58%
26
BUF logo BUF 42%
23
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams244 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook71 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.7 TD
Sim Prediction: Bears by 2.8
Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.8 (26-23).
James Cook (Bills) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: James Cook, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: D'Andre Swift, 4.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Dec 20

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 68%
26
CAR logo CAR 32%
22
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow322 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chase Brown Chase Brown48 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.6 rec, 99 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 4.4
The sim sides with Bengals: a 4.4-point edge and a 68% win rate over 50 runs (26-22).
Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Luke Fortner (Panthers) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tacario Davis (Bengals) - winner: Tacario Davis, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 6%
12
GB logo GB 94%
27
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love276 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II Ollie Gordon II52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson6.2 rec, 103 yds, 0.9 TD
Sim Prediction: Packers by 15.3
The model leans Packers by 15.3, winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 27-12).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Willie Gay, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Jonathan Ford (Packers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jonathan Ford, winning 56% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 6.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 56%
20
HST logo HST 44%
20
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud266 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Texans by 0.2
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 44% of the time by an average of 0.2 (20-20).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Anton Harrison (Jaguars) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 56% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 8.8 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Foyesade Oluokun, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 42%
15
NYG logo NYG 58%
16
PASS Jameis Winston Jameis Winston228 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston Denzel Boston5.9 rec, 89 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Giants by 0.8
The model leans Giants by 0.8, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 16-15).
Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 4.1 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 62%
19
PIT logo PIT 38%
17
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers231 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 1.7
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 62% of them, by 1.7 on average (19-17).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Keeanu Benton (Steelers) vs Vega Ioane (Ravens) - winner: Keeanu Benton, winning 56% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NO logo NO 44%
21
TB logo TB 56%
24
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough301 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving Bucky Irving59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.6 rec, 117 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Buccaneers by 3.0
The sim sides with Buccaneers: a 3.0-point edge and a 56% win rate over 50 runs (24-21).
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Benjamin Morrison (Buccaneers) - winner: Benjamin Morrison, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Chris Olave (Saints) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 62% of routes for 9.4/12.6, 91 yds a game - separation all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 74%
24
TEN logo TEN 26%
16
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward238 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor64 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Carnell Tate Carnell Tate6.3 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Colts by 8.0
The model leans Colts by 8.0, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 24-16).
Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Atonio Mafi (Titans) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 57% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 72%
24
WAS logo WAS 28%
18
PASS Jayden Daniels Jayden Daniels225 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson97 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.8 rec, 80 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 6.8
Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 6.8 (24-18).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Jeremy Reaves (Commanders) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Drake London (Falcons) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 6.9/9.8, 62 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 70%
23
ARZ logo ARZ 30%
17
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett260 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Michael Wilson Michael Wilson7.8 rec, 98 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Jets by 5.7
Run it 50 times and Jets win 70% of them, by 5.7 on average (23-17).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 1.5 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 16%
18
LA logo LA 84%
29
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford307 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.8 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 11.2
The model leans Rams by 11.2, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 29-18).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 62% of routes for 10.4/12.6, 89 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 46%
21
LV logo LV 54%
20
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins54 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle7.0 rec, 98 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 1.2
Across 50 simulations, Broncos come out on top 46% of the time by an average of 1.2 (21-20).
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Red Murdock, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 82%
29
MIN logo MIN 18%
20
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff253 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 9.4
Run it 50 times and Lions win 82% of them, by 9.4 on average (29-20).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.3 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Malcolm Rodriguez (Lions) - winner: Malcolm Rodriguez, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Dec 21

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 52%
22
KC logo KC 48%
22
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye243 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III86 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice6.2 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 0.2
The model leans Chiefs by 0.2, winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 22-22).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.0 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 26 yds on just 37% open, 0.5 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Full breakdown →