NFL Week 15 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 15

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Dec 17

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 36%
21
LAC logo LAC 64%
28
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy260 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton69 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ladd McConkey Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET LAC -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LAC -7.4
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 7.4
BET VALUE
Chargers are the pick here, favoured by 7.4 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 28-21).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →

Saturday, Dec 19

Sat 5:00pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 60%
23
PHI logo PHI 40%
21
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts247 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith5.0 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET PHI -1.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model SEA -2.1
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 2.1
BET VALUE
The model leans Seahawks by 2.1, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 4.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Noah Igbinoghene (Seahawks) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 62% of routes for 6.8/8.3, 55 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Full breakdown →
Sat 8:20pm
PROJ
CHI logo CHI 54%
24
BUF logo BUF 46%
23
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams262 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook76 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BUF -3.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model CHI -1.3
Sim Prediction: Bears by 1.3
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Bears win 54% of them, by 1.3 on average (24-23).
James Cook (Bills) vs D'Marco Jackson (Bears) - winner: James Cook, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Dec 20

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 82%
24
CAR logo CAR 18%
15
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow285 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET CIN -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model CIN -9.3
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 9.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CIN -2.5 +6.8 pts
The sim sides with Bengals: a 9.3-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (24-15).
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Luke Fortner (Panthers) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 34%
17
GB logo GB 66%
24
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love269 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane82 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.3 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET GB -10.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model GB -7.2
Sim Prediction: Packers by 7.2
BET VALUE
Packers are the pick here, favoured by 7.2 and winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 24-17).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Austin Jackson (Dolphins) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.6 sacks and 10.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Xavier McKinney (Packers) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 58%
21
HST logo HST 42%
21
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud244 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery56 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.6 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET HST -3 O/U 43.5 vs Model JAX -0.0
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 0.0
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 0.0 (21-21).
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 33 yds on just 36% open, 0.9 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 38%
16
NYG logo NYG 62%
19
PASS Deshaun Watson Deshaun Watson206 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers4.8 rec, 73 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NYG -4.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model NYG -3.0
Sim Prediction: Giants by 3.0
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Giants win 62% of them, by 3.0 on average (19-16).
The Browns' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 5.1 sacks a game, with Brian Burns (2.4 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Giants' line should hold up: the Browns win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 24.7 pressures a game — Jared Verse (2.1 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 40%
16
PIT logo PIT 60%
17
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers223 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry69 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.6 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET BLT -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model PIT -1.5
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 1.5
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Steelers win 60% of them, by 1.5 on average (17-16).
Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 57% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 3.0 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Roger Rosengarten (Ravens) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 2.8 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NO logo NO 62%
22
TB logo TB 38%
19
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough265 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr. Travis Etienne Jr.42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave6.4 rec, 93 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET TB -3.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model NO -2.4
Sim Prediction: Saints by 2.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NO +3.5 +5.9 pts
Saints are the pick here, favoured by 2.4 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 22-19).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Julian Blackmon, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 84%
27
TEN logo TEN 16%
13
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones221 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor94 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.0 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET IND -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model IND -14.3
Sim Prediction: Colts by 14.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean IND -1.5 +12.8 pts
Colts are the pick here, favoured by 14.3 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 27-13).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.1 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 88%
29
WAS logo WAS 12%
18
PASS Michael Penix Jr. Michael Penix Jr.225 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson130 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.5 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET WAS -3.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model ATL -11.4
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 11.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +3.5 +14.9 pts
Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 11.4 (29-18).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Drake London (Falcons) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Drake London, open on 63% of routes for 5.8/8.3, 53 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
NYJ logo NYJ 70%
23
ARZ logo ARZ 30%
16
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett247 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall95 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NYJ -1.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model NYJ -6.9
Sim Prediction: Jets by 6.9
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Jets win 70% of them, by 6.9 on average (23-16).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 6.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 30%
21
LA logo LA 70%
31
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford305 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams78 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.9 rec, 104 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LA -5.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model LA -10.1
Sim Prediction: Rams by 10.1
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Rams: a 10.1-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (31-21).
Myles Garrett (Rams) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Myles Garrett, winning 56% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 10.7 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
DEN logo DEN 80%
26
LV logo LV 20%
17
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix264 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.2 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DEN -4.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model DEN -8.5
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 8.5
BET VALUE
The model leans Broncos by 8.5, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 26-17).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 43 yds on just 33% open, 0.9 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 6.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 78%
25
MIN logo MIN 22%
13
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff244 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs70 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown5.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DET -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model DET -11.3
Sim Prediction: Lions by 11.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DET -1.5 +9.8 pts
Run it 50 times and Lions win 78% of them, by 11.3 on average (25-13).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Christian Darrisaw (Vikings) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 9.2 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Dec 21

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 56%
20
KC logo KC 44%
20
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye230 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III67 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC A.J. Brown A.J. Brown4.9 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model NE -0.2
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 0.2
BET VALUE
Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 0.2 and winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 20-20).
Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 27 yds on just 36% open, 0.6 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →