NFL Week 10 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 10

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Nov 12

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 28%
18
NYG logo NYG 72%
23
PASS Jaxson Dart Jaxson Dart238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.3 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET NYG -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model NYG -4.8
Sim Prediction: Giants by 4.8
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Giants win 72% of them, by 4.8 on average (23-18).
Malik Nabers (Giants) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Malik Nabers, open on 59% of routes for 6.5/9.2, 65 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 15

Sun 9:30am
PROJ
NE logo NE 34%
18
DET logo DET 66%
23
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff243 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs89 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown6.2 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET DET -1.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model DET -5.5
Sim Prediction: Lions by 5.5
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Lions win 66% of them, by 5.5 on average (23-18).
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 5.0 sacks and 10.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 42%
20
ATL logo ATL 58%
24
PASS Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes227 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson105 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.6 rec, 73 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET KC -4.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model ATL -3.7
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 3.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +4.5 +8.2 pts
The model leans Falcons by 3.7, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 90%
24
CLV logo CLV 10%
11
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud229 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET HST -4.5 O/U 38.5 vs Model HST -12.5
Sim Prediction: Texans by 12.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean HST -4.5 +8.0 pts
The sim sides with Texans: a 12.5-point edge and a 90% win rate over 50 runs (24-11).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 55% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 20 yds on just 31% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 12%
14
GB logo GB 88%
23
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love239 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.2 rec, 85 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET GB -4.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model GB -8.8
Sim Prediction: Packers by 8.8
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Packers: a 8.8-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (23-14).
The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.9 sacks a game), with Micah Parsons (4.7 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Packers' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.9 sacks and 19.8 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (2.4 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 28%
20
IND logo IND 72%
27
PASS Daniel Jones Daniel Jones251 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane77 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.5 rec, 87 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET IND -6.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model IND -6.6
Sim Prediction: Colts by 6.6
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Colts: a 6.6-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (27-20).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 22 yds on just 31% open, 0.9 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 34%
18
NO logo NO 66%
21
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough259 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard Chuba Hubbard55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.2 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NO -1.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model NO -3.5
Sim Prediction: Saints by 3.5
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Saints come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 3.5 (21-18).
The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Saints win just 49% of reps for 5.0 sacks a game, led by Chase Young (3.3 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game).
The Saints' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.7 sacks and 15.0 pressures a game (Jaelan Phillips (3.0 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 30%
20
NYJ logo NYJ 70%
29
PASS Geno Smith Geno Smith230 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall110 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore5.6 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET BUF -7 O/U 46.5 vs Model NYJ -8.6
Sim Prediction: Jets by 8.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NYJ +7 +15.6 pts
The sim sides with Jets: a 8.6-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (29-20).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Breece Hall, 7.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Deone Walker (Bills) vs Dylan Parham (Jets) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 1.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 74%
22
TEN logo TEN 26%
15
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence242 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard Tony Pollard43 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr. Brian Thomas Jr.5.2 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET JAX -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model JAX -7.3
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 7.3
BET VALUE
Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 7.3 and winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 22-15).
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 94%
34
ARZ logo ARZ 6%
14
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford283 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Davante Adams Davante Adams5.7 rec, 90 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET LA -10.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LA -19.1
Sim Prediction: Rams by 19.1
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -10.5 +8.6 pts
Rams are the pick here, favoured by 19.1 and winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 34-14).
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 39 yds on just 37% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
SEA logo SEA 76%
26
LV logo LV 24%
17
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins253 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet76 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker6.0 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET SEA -7 O/U 43.5 vs Model SEA -9.2
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 9.2
BET VALUE
Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 9.2 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 26-17).
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 46 yds on just 35% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 5.2 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 34%
21
DAL logo DAL 66%
27
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy279 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams64 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DAL -1.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model DAL -5.6
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 5.6
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 66% of them, by 5.6 on average (27-21).
Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 55% of reps for 2.4 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
PIT logo PIT 40%
22
CIN logo CIN 60%
24
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow308 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET CIN -3.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model CIN -1.6
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 1.6
BET VALUE
Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 1.6 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 24-22).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 16

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 58%
19
BLT logo BLT 42%
17
PASS Justin Herbert Justin Herbert216 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry71 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET BLT -2.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model LAC -2.8
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 2.8
BET VALUE
The model leans Chargers by 2.8, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 19-17).
The Chargers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.7 sacks a game), Tuli Tuipulotu (2.6 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
The Chargers' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 30.1 pressures a game, and Tavius Robinson (1.1 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Full breakdown →