NFL Week 13 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 13

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Dec 3

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 16%
17
LA logo LA 84%
30
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 97 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET LA -3.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LA -13.6
Sim Prediction: Rams by 13.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -3.5 +10.1 pts
Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 84% of the time by an average of 13.6 (30-17).
Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 11.3/12.8, 89 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Dec 6

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 60%
24
ATL logo ATL 40%
21
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff246 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs73 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DET -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model DET -3.3
Sim Prediction: Lions by 3.3
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Lions win 60% of them, by 3.3 on average (24-21).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 4.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 58%
22
CHI logo CHI 42%
18
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence221 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze4.9 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model JAX -4.4
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 4.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean JAX +2.5 +6.9 pts
The sim sides with Jaguars: a 4.4-point edge and a 58% win rate over 50 runs (22-18).
Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 48% win rate yields only 7.6 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (5.4 sacks, 10.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.1 sacks a game — Montez Sweat (1.6 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 90%
24
CLV logo CLV 10%
13
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow276 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.6 rec, 93 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET CIN -4.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model CIN -11.8
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 11.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CIN -4.5 +7.3 pts
The model leans Bengals by 11.8, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 24-13).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 24 yds on just 35% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 65% of routes for 9.2/11.6, 77 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 70%
24
NO logo NO 30%
16
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love263 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs52 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson Christian Watson5.9 rec, 97 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET GB -4.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model GB -7.7
Sim Prediction: Packers by 7.7
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 70% of the time by an average of 7.7 (24-16).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Kelvin Banks Jr. (Saints) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 7.7 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 64%
25
NYG logo NYG 36%
20
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey67 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.9 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET SF -3 O/U 47.5 vs Model SF -5.3
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 5.3
BET VALUE
The model leans 49ers by 5.3, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 25-20).
The 49ers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.2 sacks a game (Nick Bosa (2.0 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Pressure could be scarce for the Giants — a 50% win rate, 5.9 sacks and 29.8 pressures a game, and Brian Burns (2.9 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 76%
26
TB logo TB 24%
17
PASS Justin Herbert Justin Herbert242 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton Omarion Hampton65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ladd McConkey Ladd McConkey5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET LAC -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model LAC -9.3
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 9.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LAC -1.5 +7.8 pts
The model leans Chargers by 9.3, winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 26-17).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Elijah Molden (Chargers) - winner: Elijah Molden, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 54%
22
TEN logo TEN 46%
22
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward251 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt Jacory Croskey-Merritt57 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Carnell Tate Carnell Tate4.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET WAS -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model WAS -0.2
Sim Prediction: Commanders by 0.2
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Commanders win 54% of them, by 0.2 on average (22-22).
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Carnell Tate, open on 63% of routes for 5.7/7.7, 57 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
PHI logo PHI 66%
27
ARZ logo ARZ 34%
19
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts256 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love Jeremiyah Love78 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC DeVonta Smith DeVonta Smith5.2 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET PHI -8.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model PHI -8.2
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 8.2
BET VALUE
The model leans Eagles by 8.2, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 27-19).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 10.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 32 yds on just 38% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 34%
20
DEN logo DEN 66%
26
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix267 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane89 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle5.1 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DEN -9.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model DEN -6.6
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 6.6
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Broncos win 66% of them, by 6.6 on average (26-20).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 25 yds on just 32% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 50%
16
MIN logo MIN 50%
15
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young218 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET MIN -3.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model CAR -1.2
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 1.2
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Panthers win 50% of them, by 1.2 on average (16-15).
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tavierre Thomas (Vikings) - winner: Tavierre Thomas, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 26%
22
NE logo NE 74%
31
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye264 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre Stevenson82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC A.J. Brown A.J. Brown5.4 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET NE -1.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model NE -9.5
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 9.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NE -1.5 +8.0 pts
The model leans Patriots by 9.5, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 31-22).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 50 yds on just 34% open, 1.4 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 6.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 52%
21
PIT logo PIT 48%
19
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren48 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET HST -1.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model HST -2.2
Sim Prediction: Texans by 2.2
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 52% of the time by an average of 2.2 (21-19).
D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 42 yds on just 40% open, 0.9 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Troy Fautanu (Steelers) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.0 sacks and 6.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Dec 7

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 36%
22
SEA logo SEA 64%
27
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott270 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet65 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Cooper Kupp Cooper Kupp5.7 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET SEA -4.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model SEA -4.6
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 4.6
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 64% of them, by 4.6 on average (27-22).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Cobie Durant (Cowboys) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 6.4/7.6, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →