NFL Week 13 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 13

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Dec 3

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 22%
17
LA logo LA 78%
27
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua8.2 rec, 108 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Rams by 10.7
Run it 50 times and Rams win 78% of them, by 10.7 on average (27-17).
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 36 yds on just 39% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Quentin Lake (Rams) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.8 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Dec 6

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
DET logo DET 72%
31
ATL logo ATL 28%
23
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff285 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson100 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Lions by 7.4
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 7.4 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 31-23).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Chuck Clark (Lions) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Jake Matthews (Falcons) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 68%
23
CHI logo CHI 32%
17
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence252 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten Bhayshul Tuten63 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington Parker Washington5.6 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 5.9
The sim sides with Jaguars: a 5.9-point edge and a 68% win rate over 50 runs (23-17).
Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 50% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 26.1 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (3.5 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Montez Sweat (1.0 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) out front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 78%
24
CLV logo CLV 22%
15
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow287 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 8.2
Across 50 simulations, Bengals come out on top 78% of the time by an average of 8.2 (24-15).
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 58%
26
NO logo NO 42%
21
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love320 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara Alvin Kamara30 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.9 rec, 111 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Packers by 4.2
Packers are the pick here, favoured by 4.2 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 26-21).
MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Martin Emerson Jr., holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Lukas Van Ness (Packers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Lukas Van Ness, winning 56% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 70%
21
NYG logo NYG 30%
14
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy249 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans Mike Evans5.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 6.8
Run it 50 times and 49ers win 70% of them, by 6.8 on average (21-14).
Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Mike Evans (49ers) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 61% of routes for 6.4/8.5, 68 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 44%
17
TB logo TB 56%
18
PASS Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield219 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving Bucky Irving41 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
Sim Prediction: Buccaneers by 0.8
Buccaneers are the pick here, favoured by 0.8 and winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 18-17).
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Antoine Winfield Jr., holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Calijah Kancey (Buccaneers) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Calijah Kancey, winning 55% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 54%
17
TEN logo TEN 46%
14
PASS Cam Ward Cam Ward232 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt Jacory Croskey-Merritt45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate Carnell Tate5.5 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Commanders by 3.8
The sim sides with Commanders: a 3.8-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (17-14).
Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
PHI logo PHI 64%
22
ARZ logo ARZ 36%
17
PASS Jacoby Brissett Jacoby Brissett248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Michael Wilson Michael Wilson7.3 rec, 82 yds, 0.3 TD
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 4.9
The model leans Eagles by 4.9, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 22-17).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Tariq Woolen (Eagles) - winner: Tariq Woolen, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
MIA logo MIA 16%
11
DEN logo DEN 84%
23
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix226 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 12.1
The sim sides with Broncos: a 12.1-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (23-11).
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 57% of reps for 0.6 sacks and 6.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 54%
20
MIN logo MIN 46%
20
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young268 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones Aaron Jones46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan6.3 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
Sim Prediction: Panthers by 0.2
The sim sides with Panthers: a 0.2-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (20-20).
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Blake Cashman, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 34%
20
NE logo NE 66%
27
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye249 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH James Cook James Cook64 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore DJ Moore5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 6.8
The sim sides with Patriots: a 6.8-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (27-20).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 43 yds on just 39% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 40%
19
PIT logo PIT 60%
21
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers271 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.7 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 1.9
Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 1.9 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Cole Holcomb (Steelers) - winner: Cole Holcomb, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Dec 7

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
DAL logo DAL 50%
22
SEA logo SEA 50%
23
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.4 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 1.0
The sim sides with Seahawks: a 1.0-point edge and a 50% win rate over 50 runs (23-22).
Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Caleb Downs, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 60% of routes for 10.0/12.0, 91 yds a game - separation all day.
Full breakdown →