NFL Week 8 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 8

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Oct 29

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 30%
13
GB logo GB 70%
20
PASS Bryce Young Bryce Young217 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs58 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan Tetairoa McMillan5.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET GB -7 O/U 45.5 vs Model GB -6.3
Sim Prediction: Packers by 6.3
BET VALUE
The model leans Packers by 6.3, winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 20-13).
The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Packers win just 51% of reps for 5.4 sacks a game, Micah Parsons (3.8 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.8 sacks a game (Jaelan Phillips (2.6 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Nov 1

Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
BLT logo BLT 64%
27
BUF logo BUF 36%
23
PASS Josh Allen Josh Allen231 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry113 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BUF -2.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model BLT -4.6
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 4.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean BLT +2.5 +7.1 pts
Ravens are the pick here, favoured by 4.6 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 27-23).
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Derrick Henry, 7.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 65% of routes for 5.3/7.5, 59 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 12%
14
CIN logo CIN 88%
30
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow307 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard Tony Pollard46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase8.1 rec, 97 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CIN -6.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model CIN -15.6
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 15.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean CIN -6.5 +9.1 pts
Run it 50 times and Bengals win 88% of them, by 15.6 on average (30-14).
Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 59% of routes for 10.0/12.2, 85 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 20%
19
DAL logo DAL 80%
28
PASS Dak Prescott Dak Prescott299 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams65 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET DAL -10.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model DAL -9.0
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 9.0
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 80% of them, by 9.0 on average (28-19).
Josh Sweat (Cardinals) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Josh Sweat, winning 57% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.1 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
MIN logo MIN 14%
13
DET logo DET 86%
23
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff242 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs67 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown5.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DET -4.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model DET -9.8
Sim Prediction: Lions by 9.8
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Lions come out on top 86% of the time by an average of 9.8 (23-13).
Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Blake Miller (Lions) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 55% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Terrion Arnold (Lions) - winner: Terrion Arnold, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
IND logo IND 38%
17
JAX logo JAX 62%
21
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor79 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Alec Pierce Alec Pierce5.0 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET JAX -4.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model JAX -3.5
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 3.5
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Jaguars win 62% of them, by 3.5 on average (21-17).
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 41 yds on just 36% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LV logo LV 38%
18
NYJ logo NYJ 62%
21
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins226 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall80 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker5.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET NYJ -1.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model NYJ -3.3
Sim Prediction: Jets by 3.3
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Jets come out on top 62% of the time by an average of 3.3 (21-18).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 12%
11
PIT logo PIT 88%
20
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers228 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren55 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf5.1 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET PIT -5.5 O/U 39.5 vs Model PIT -8.5
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 8.5
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Steelers win 88% of them, by 8.5 on average (20-11).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Joey Porter Jr., holding him to 15 yds on just 33% open, 0.6 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ATL logo ATL 78%
26
TB logo TB 22%
16
PASS Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield227 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson100 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London Drake London6.0 rec, 76 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET TB -4.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model ATL -9.4
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 9.4
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +4.5 +13.9 pts
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 78% of them, by 9.4 on average (26-16).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Billy Bowman Jr., holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 18%
17
LA logo LA 82%
34
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford291 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams75 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.0 rec, 90 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET LA -3.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model LA -16.3
Sim Prediction: Rams by 16.3
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA -3.5 +12.8 pts
The sim sides with Rams: a 16.3-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (34-17).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Donte Jackson (Chargers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 10.2/11.6, 84 yds a game - separation all day.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
KC logo KC 26%
18
DEN logo DEN 74%
25
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix246 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III64 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle5.7 rec, 74 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET DEN -1.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model DEN -7.2
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 7.2
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DEN -1.5 +5.7 pts
Run it 50 times and Broncos win 74% of them, by 7.2 on average (25-18).
Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Jaylon Moore (Chiefs) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 6.8 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 23 yds on just 37% open, 0.5 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 54%
23
MIA logo MIA 46%
20
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye255 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane74 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC A.J. Brown A.J. Brown4.9 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET NE -7 O/U 45.5 vs Model NE -2.8
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 2.8
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Patriots win 54% of them, by 2.8 on average (23-20).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 31 yds on just 32% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 61% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 8.9 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
PHI logo PHI 80%
26
WAS logo WAS 20%
15
PASS Jalen Hurts Jalen Hurts244 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley Saquon Barkley71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Makai Lemon Makai Lemon4.9 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET PHI -2.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model PHI -10.9
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 10.9
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PHI -2.5 +8.4 pts
Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 80% of the time by an average of 10.9 (26-15).
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 5.4 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Jalen Carter (Eagles) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Jalen Carter, winning 55% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 5.2 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Nov 2

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
CHI logo CHI 28%
19
SEA logo SEA 72%
27
PASS Caleb Williams Caleb Williams228 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet Zach Charbonnet84 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET SEA -4.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model SEA -8.2
Sim Prediction: Seahawks by 8.2
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 72% of them, by 8.2 on average (27-19).
Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 41 yds on just 38% open, 1.2 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Gervon Dexter Sr. (Bears) vs Grey Zabel (Seahawks) - winner: Gervon Dexter Sr., winning 56% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 1.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Full breakdown →