NFL Week 18 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets
2026 Season · Week 18
Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
‹
›
Sunday, Jan 10
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
SF 54%
ARZ 46%
PASS
Brock Purdy291 pass yds, 1.8 TD
Brock Purdy291 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH
Christian McCaffrey71 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Christian McCaffrey71 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Mike Evans5.1 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
Mike Evans5.1 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
SF -8.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model SF -2.8
Sim Prediction: 49ers by 2.8
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean ARZ +8.5 +5.7 pts
The sim sides with 49ers: a 2.8-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (25-22).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.3 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
PIT 64%
BLT 36%
PASS
Aaron Rodgers227 pass yds, 1.0 TD
Aaron Rodgers227 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH
Derrick Henry69 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Derrick Henry69 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
D.K. Metcalf5.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
D.K. Metcalf5.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET
BLT -5.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model PIT -4.4
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 4.4
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean PIT +5.5 +9.9 pts
Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 4.4 (18-14).
Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Troy Fautanu (Steelers) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 2.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
NYJ 68%
BUF 32%
PASS
Geno Smith233 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Geno Smith233 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Breece Hall105 rush yds, 1.4 TD
Breece Hall105 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC
DJ Moore5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
DJ Moore5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
BUF -10 O/U 43.5 vs Model NYJ -7.7
Sim Prediction: Jets by 7.7
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean NYJ +10 +17.7 pts
Run it 50 times and Jets win 68% of them, by 7.7 on average (29-21).
Breece Hall (Jets) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Breece Hall, 7.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
T'Vondre Sweat (Jets) vs Alec Anderson (Bills) - winner: T'Vondre Sweat, winning 56% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
ATL 76%
CAR 24%
PASS
Bryce Young226 pass yds, 1.1 TD
Bryce Young226 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH
Bijan Robinson118 rush yds, 1.3 TD
Bijan Robinson118 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC
Tetairoa McMillan5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.1 TD
Tetairoa McMillan5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.1 TD
MARKET
CAR -2.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model ATL -7.7
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 7.7
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean ATL +2.5 +10.2 pts
The sim sides with Falcons: a 7.7-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (23-16).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 7.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Divine Deablo (Falcons) - winner: Divine Deablo, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
CLV 14%
CIN 86%
PASS
Joe Burrow285 pass yds, 2.4 TD
Joe Burrow285 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH
Quinshon Judkins57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Quinshon Judkins57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 92 yds, 0.7 TD
Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 92 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET
CIN -7.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model CIN -14.9
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 14.9
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean CIN -7.5 +7.4 pts
The sim sides with Bengals: a 14.9-point edge and a 86% win rate over 50 runs (28-13).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 22 yds on just 35% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 64% of routes for 10.0/11.8, 85 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
LAC 28%
DEN 72%
PASS
Bo Nix268 pass yds, 1.8 TD
Bo Nix268 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH
Omarion Hampton62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Omarion Hampton62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Jaylen Waddle6.3 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
Jaylen Waddle6.3 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
DEN -1.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model DEN -7.7
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 7.7
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean DEN -1.5 +6.2 pts
Run it 50 times and Broncos win 72% of them, by 7.7 on average (27-19).
Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 29 yds on just 39% open, 0.6 INT a game, - shut down all game.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.3 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
DET 68%
GB 32%
PASS
Jared Goff266 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Jared Goff266 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Jahmyr Gibbs72 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs72 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Christian Watson4.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
Christian Watson4.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
GB -2.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model DET -3.3
Sim Prediction: Lions by 3.3
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean DET +2.5 +5.8 pts
Run it 50 times and Lions win 68% of them, by 3.3 on average (23-19).
Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Penei Sewell (Lions) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 4.7 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
TEN 10%
HST 90%
PASS
C.J. Stroud247 pass yds, 1.8 TD
C.J. Stroud247 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
David Montgomery72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Nico Collins6.3 rec, 93 yds, 0.6 TD
Nico Collins6.3 rec, 93 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
HST -7 O/U 39.5 vs Model HST -15.8
Sim Prediction: Texans by 15.8
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean HST -7 +8.8 pts
The sim sides with Texans: a 15.8-point edge and a 90% win rate over 50 runs (28-12).
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 55% of reps for 5.1 sacks and 11.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
David Montgomery (Texans) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: David Montgomery, 4.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
JAX 40%
IND 60%
PASS
Trevor Lawrence234 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Trevor Lawrence234 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Jonathan Taylor81 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Jonathan Taylor81 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Alec Pierce5.1 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
Alec Pierce5.1 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
IND -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model IND -2.9
Sim Prediction: Colts by 2.9
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Colts win 60% of them, by 2.9 on average (21-19).
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 33 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
LV 32%
KC 68%
PASS
Kirk Cousins224 pass yds, 1.0 TD
Kirk Cousins224 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH
Kenneth Walker III81 rush yds, 0.7 TD
Kenneth Walker III81 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC
Rashee Rice5.5 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
Rashee Rice5.5 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
KC -8.5 O/U 40.5 vs Model KC -8.6
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 8.6
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 8.6 (24-16).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.4 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 42 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
SEA 20%
LA 80%
PASS
Matthew Stafford311 pass yds, 2.2 TD
Matthew Stafford311 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH
Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC
Puka Nacua7.9 rec, 100 yds, 0.6 TD
Puka Nacua7.9 rec, 100 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET
LA -2.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model LA -6.2
Sim Prediction: Rams by 6.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Rams win 80% of them, by 6.2 on average (30-24).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 60% of routes for 7.0/9.5, 57 yds a game - money in this spot.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
CHI 58%
MIN 42%
PASS
Caleb Williams224 pass yds, 1.4 TD
Caleb Williams224 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH
Aaron Jones52 rush yds, 0.1 TD
Aaron Jones52 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC
Rome Odunze5.7 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
Rome Odunze5.7 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
MIN -1.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model CHI -4.2
Sim Prediction: Bears by 4.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean CHI +1.5 +5.7 pts
Bears are the pick here, favoured by 4.2 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 21-17).
The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (6.0 sacks a game), led by Montez Sweat (2.3 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game).
The Bears' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 49% of their reps, mustering 6.2 sacks and 27.3 pressures a game, and Dallas Turner (3.3 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
MIA 46%
NE 54%
PASS
Drake Maye255 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Drake Maye255 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
De'Von Achane68 rush yds, 0.3 TD
De'Von Achane68 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
A.J. Brown5.6 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
A.J. Brown5.6 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
NE -10.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model NE -4.0
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 4.0
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean MIA +10.5 +6.5 pts
Run it 50 times and Patriots win 54% of them, by 4.0 on average (24-20).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 27 yds on just 31% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Joshua Uche (Dolphins) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Joshua Uche, winning 56% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 6.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
TB 24%
NO 76%
PASS
Tyler Shough272 pass yds, 1.8 TD
Tyler Shough272 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH
Travis Etienne Jr.50 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Travis Etienne Jr.50 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Chris Olave7.9 rec, 108 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave7.9 rec, 108 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET
TB -1.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model NO -7.3
Sim Prediction: Saints by 7.3
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean NO +1.5 +8.8 pts
Run it 50 times and Saints win 76% of them, by 7.3 on average (23-16).
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Julian Blackmon, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) vs Kelvin Banks Jr. (Saints) - winner: Rueben Bain Jr., winning 57% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
PHI 88%
NYG 12%
PASS
Jalen Hurts243 pass yds, 1.5 TD
Jalen Hurts243 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH
Saquon Barkley66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Saquon Barkley66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Makai Lemon5.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
Makai Lemon5.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET
PHI -3 O/U 41.5 vs Model PHI -12.2
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 12.2
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
VALUE
Lean PHI -3 +9.2 pts
Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 12.2 and winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 25-13).
Malik Nabers (Giants) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 36 yds on just 40% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Cooper DeJean (Eagles) - winner: Cooper DeJean, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Sun
12:00am
PROJ
DAL 66%
WAS 34%
PASS
Dak Prescott272 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Dak Prescott272 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Javonte Williams72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Javonte Williams72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET
DAL -1.5 O/U 49.5 vs Model DAL -6.5
Sim Prediction: Cowboys by 6.5
Full breakdown →
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 66% of them, by 6.5 on average (27-21).
Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Javonte Williams, 6.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Odafe Oweh (Commanders) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Odafe Oweh, winning 56% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.