NFL Week 16 Predictions Picks, Scores & Best Bets

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2026 Season · Week 16

Every game projected from a 50-simulation head-to-head: the projected result and win probability, the market line, the game's top performers, and the matchup edges a team-stats model misses - who wins in the trenches, on the outside, and on the ground. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

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Thursday, Dec 24

Thu 8:15pm
PROJ
HST logo HST 40%
19
PHI logo PHI 60%
21
PASS C.J. Stroud C.J. Stroud231 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH David Montgomery David Montgomery60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins Nico Collins5.9 rec, 72 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET PHI -2.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model PHI -2.4
Sim Prediction: Eagles by 2.4
BET VALUE
Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 2.4 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).
DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 63% of routes for 6.2/7.9, 55 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →

Friday, Dec 25

Fri 1:00pm
PROJ
GB logo GB 56%
21
CHI logo CHI 44%
20
PASS Jordan Love Jordan Love238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rome Odunze Rome Odunze5.8 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET CHI -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model GB -1.6
Sim Prediction: Packers by 1.6
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Packers win 56% of them, by 1.6 on average (21-20).
Christian Watson (Packers) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 60% of routes for 7.0/9.4, 67 yds a game - money in this spot.
Full breakdown →
Fri 4:30pm
PROJ
BUF logo BUF 8%
19
DEN logo DEN 92%
33
PASS Bo Nix Bo Nix295 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins68 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle Jaylen Waddle6.3 rec, 93 yds, 0.5 TD
MARKET BUF -1.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model DEN -13.8
Sim Prediction: Broncos by 13.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DEN +1.5 +15.3 pts
The model leans Broncos by 13.8, winning 92% of 50 sims (projected 33-19).
DJ Moore (Bills) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 37 yds on just 34% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a read taken away.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Fri 8:15pm
PROJ
LA logo LA 78%
32
SEA logo SEA 22%
22
PASS Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford301 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams Kyren Williams85 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 98 yds, 0.7 TD
MARKET SEA -1.5 O/U 47.5 vs Model LA -9.8
Sim Prediction: Rams by 9.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean LA +1.5 +11.3 pts
Run it 50 times and Rams win 78% of them, by 9.8 on average (32-22).
Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 61% of routes for 7.7/9.2, 63 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
Full breakdown →

Sunday, Dec 27

Sun 12:00am
PROJ
TB logo TB 26%
16
ATL logo ATL 74%
26
PASS Michael Penix Jr. Michael Penix Jr.232 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson96 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London Drake London5.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET TB -1.5 O/U 45.5 vs Model ATL -10.5
Sim Prediction: Falcons by 10.5
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean ATL +1.5 +12.0 pts
Run it 50 times and Falcons win 74% of them, by 10.5 on average (26-16).
Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Billy Bowman Jr., holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
CIN logo CIN 58%
22
IND logo IND 42%
22
PASS Joe Burrow Joe Burrow303 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor91 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET CIN -1.5 O/U 52.5 vs Model CIN -0.4
Sim Prediction: Bengals by 0.4
BET VALUE
The model leans Bengals by 0.4, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 22-22).
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.7 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
WAS logo WAS 48%
18
MIN logo MIN 52%
19
PASS Kyler Murray Kyler Murray223 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt Jacory Croskey-Merritt54 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
MARKET MIN -2.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model MIN -0.8
Sim Prediction: Vikings by 0.8
BET VALUE
Vikings are the pick here, favoured by 0.8 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 19-18).
Don't expect much heat from the Vikings — a 49% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 22.2 pressures a game, with Dallas Turner (2.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
The Commanders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.2 sacks a game (Odafe Oweh (3.3 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Full breakdown →
Sun 12:00am
PROJ
CAR logo CAR 24%
12
PIT logo PIT 76%
22
PASS Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers233 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren Jaylen Warren61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf D.K. Metcalf5.6 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET PIT -3.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model PIT -9.7
Sim Prediction: Steelers by 9.7
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean PIT -3.5 +6.2 pts
Run it 50 times and Steelers win 76% of them, by 9.7 on average (22-12).
D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Mike Jackson (Panthers) - winner: Mike Jackson, holding him to 40 yds on just 38% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
CLV logo CLV 28%
12
BLT logo BLT 72%
21
PASS Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson180 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry Derrick Henry68 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Zay Flowers Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 63 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET BLT -9.5 O/U 43.5 vs Model BLT -8.5
Sim Prediction: Ravens by 8.5
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Ravens win 72% of them, by 8.5 on average (21-12).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Chidobe Awuzie, holding him to 17 yds on just 37% open, 0.9 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 57% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
LAC logo LAC 58%
24
MIA logo MIA 42%
22
PASS Justin Herbert Justin Herbert245 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane De'Von Achane77 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ladd McConkey Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET LAC -7 O/U 44.5 vs Model LAC -2.0
Sim Prediction: Chargers by 2.0
BET VALUE
The model leans Chargers by 2.0, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 24-22).
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
ARZ logo ARZ 22%
19
NO logo NO 78%
25
PASS Tyler Shough Tyler Shough311 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr. Travis Etienne Jr.51 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Chris Olave Chris Olave7.5 rec, 110 yds, 0.6 TD
MARKET NO -5.5 O/U 44.5 vs Model NO -5.8
Sim Prediction: Saints by 5.8
BET VALUE
The model leans Saints by 5.8, winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 25-19).
Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 5.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
Jordyn Tyson (Saints) vs Will Johnson (Cardinals) - winner: Jordyn Tyson, open on 58% of routes for 6.2/7.9, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
Full breakdown →
Sun 1:00pm
PROJ
NE logo NE 54%
21
NYJ logo NYJ 46%
21
PASS Drake Maye Drake Maye220 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall Breece Hall71 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC A.J. Brown A.J. Brown4.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET NE -6.5 O/U 41.5 vs Model NE -0.6
Sim Prediction: Patriots by 0.6
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean NYJ +6.5 +5.9 pts
The sim sides with Patriots: a 0.6-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (21-21).
Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 37 yds on just 39% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 14 yds on just 35% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:05pm
PROJ
TEN logo TEN 24%
18
LV logo LV 76%
24
PASS Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins255 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty Ashton Jeanty52 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tre Tucker Tre Tucker6.6 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET LV -1.5 O/U 42.5 vs Model LV -6.7
Sim Prediction: Raiders by 6.7
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Raiders win 76% of them, by 6.7 on average (24-18).
Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Tyler Linderbaum (Raiders) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 2.4 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
Full breakdown →
Sun 4:25pm
PROJ
SF logo SF 36%
18
KC logo KC 64%
25
PASS Brock Purdy Brock Purdy244 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III Kenneth Walker III69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rashee Rice Rashee Rice5.3 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET KC -2.5 O/U 46.5 vs Model KC -6.2
Sim Prediction: Chiefs by 6.2
BET VALUE
Run it 50 times and Chiefs win 64% of them, by 6.2 on average (25-18).
Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
Full breakdown →
Sun 8:20pm
PROJ
JAX logo JAX 54%
21
DAL logo DAL 46%
20
PASS Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence260 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams Javonte Williams66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Lamb5.5 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
MARKET DAL -2.5 O/U 51.5 vs Model JAX -0.7
Sim Prediction: Jaguars by 0.7
BET VALUE
The sim sides with Jaguars: a 0.7-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (21-20).
Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 56% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 10.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
Full breakdown →

Monday, Dec 28

Mon 8:15pm
PROJ
NYG logo NYG 12%
14
DET logo DET 88%
27
PASS Jared Goff Jared Goff261 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs74 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Malik Nabers Malik Nabers5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
MARKET DET -5.5 O/U 48.5 vs Model DET -12.8
Sim Prediction: Lions by 12.8
BET VALUE
VALUE Lean DET -5.5 +7.3 pts
Lions are the pick here, favoured by 12.8 and winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 27-14).
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.4 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Deonte Banks (Giants) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 63% of routes for 8.0/9.3, 68 yds a game - open at will.
Full breakdown →