There is conviction, and then there is this. The Dolphins took Sam Hartman a full 44 picks ahead of where the board had him, an overdraft steep enough that it colors the whole weekend.
They handed away value on the phones that the picks cannot earn back. The Kinchens pick is fine in a vacuum, less so with linebacker still on the board.
They will regret leaving linebacker for another day if the season turns on it. The McGlothern pick is the one they will point to when this weekend is judged.
It is a win-now wager, and the future is the stake.
Bottom line, it will take a lot of luck to make this look better later.
Pick-by-Pick
R1.8
· Pick 8
· Brock Bowers
· TE
· rank 6
In the 8th overall pick they get a security blanket over the middle at fair value. A real need, handled.
R1.21
· Pick 21
· Amarius Mims
· OT
· rank 22
In pick No. 21 they get protection for the quarterback. A clean fit for the roster.
R1.26
· Pick 26
· Chop Robinson
· DE-EDGE
· rank 21
In Round 1, Pick 26 they get a quarterback's worst nightmare. Exactly the need they had to hit.
R1.27
· Pick 27
· Jackson Powers-Johnson
· C
· rank 29
In the Round 1 slot they get a building block for the line at fair value. A real need, handled.
R2.6
· Pick 38
· Kool-Aid McKinstry
· CB
· rank 25
The board had Kool-Aid McKinstry higher than No. 38, and the cornerback fell to them anyway. A minor need, but a need all the same.
R2.23
· Pick 55
· Javon Bullard
· S
· rank 60
Javon Bullard in slot 55 is fair value, right on his grade. Depth more than a fix, but depth they can use.
R3.15
· Pick 79
· Kamren Kinchens
· S
· rank 73
The eyebrow-raiser of the weekend. They went safety with Kamren Kinchens while clear needs at linebacker sat open.
R4.10
· Pick 110
· Caelen Carson
· CB
· rank 92
The needs board was loud and they turned it down, spending Round 4, Pick 10 on Caelen Carson with linebacker unsolved.
R4.26
· Pick 126
· McKinnley Jackson
· DL
· rank 123
McKinnley Jackson at the Round 4 slot is a sound buy, the sort that quietly helps a class. The biggest hole on the depth chart just got a whole lot smaller.
R5.21
· Pick 157
· Jacob Cowing
· WR
· rank 142
Jacob Cowing is a better player than pick 157 suggests; smart patience, rewarded. A must-fix position, and they treated it like one.
R6.11
· Pick 186
· Jha'Quan Jackson
· WR
· rank 178
Value with a capital V on Jha'Quan Jackson in the 186th pick, a genuine coup. This was priority one on the needs board, and now it is handled.
R6.13
· Pick 188
· Caedan Wallace
· OT
· rank 180
Caedan Wallace in slot 188 is a bargain the rest of the room will envy. A need, and now a little less of one.
R6.24
· Pick 199
· Dwight McGlothern
· CB
· rank 175
Dwight McGlothern in pick No. 199 is the kind of fall that makes a whole class. Insurance at a position that did not really ask for it.
R6.25
· Pick 200
· Cornelius Johnson
· WR
· rank 187
Quietly one of the better values of the day, Cornelius Johnson at No. 200. That was the need underlined and circled, and now it is checked off.
R6.28
· Pick 203
· Jase McClellan
· RB
· rank 189
Jase McClellan slipping to the 203rd overall pick is the kind of luck good rooms make for themselves. A real hole, addressed with a reasonable pick.
R7.19
· Pick 239
· Sam Hartman
· QB
· rank 283
They talked themselves into Sam Hartman at slot 239, and the board did not agree. They walked in needing this and walked out with it.