You can lose a draft before you make a pick. The Commanders did it at the trade table, overpaying to chase players the board did not price nearly as high. A weekend that fought the value and lost, hence the D+.
Spending an early pick on DT-EDGE with interior defensive lineman open is the decision the grade keeps circling back to. They punted on interior defensive lineman, and it is the miss that keeps the grade honest.
They will need McCarthy to outplay his draft slot in a hurry to justify it. Jones falling to them is the kind of break a good board is built to catch.
Bottom line, they will need several of these picks to beat their grades just to break even, and interior defensive lineman is still a hole.
Pick-by-Pick
R1.4
· Pick 4
· Joe Alt
· OT
· rank 3
In the Round 1 slot they get a long-term starter on the line at fair value. Exactly the need they had to hit.
R2.3
· Pick 35
· J.J. McCarthy
· QB
· rank 46
A premium they did not need to pay, J.J. McCarthy a notch or two before his time. It shores up a spot that genuinely needed the help.
R2.8
· Pick 40
· Chop Robinson
· DE-EDGE
· rank 38
Chop Robinson in Round 2, Pick 8 is fair value, right on his grade. A need, and now a little less of one.
R3.3
· Pick 67
· Payton Wilson
· LB
· rank 70
A market-rate linebacker, with the board and the slot shaking hands on Payton Wilson. A minor need, but a need all the same.
R3.11
· Pick 75
· Johnny Wilson
· WR
· rank 75
They paid sticker price for Johnny Wilson in pick No. 75, and that is fine. A must-fix position, and they treated it like one.
R3.36
· Pick 99
· Khyree Jackson
· CB
· rank 105
No drama and no debate, Khyree Jackson went about where he belonged in the 99th overall pick. The biggest hole on the depth chart just got a whole lot smaller.
R3.37
· Pick 100
· Maason Smith
· DT-EDGE
· rank 87
They zigged when the board said zag, taking Maason Smith at DT-EDGE with interior defensive lineman open.
R4.2
· Pick 102
· Tykee Smith
· S
· rank 97
Tykee Smith at slot 102 nudges the ledger their way without any fuss. A minor itch, scratched.
R4.32
· Pick 132
· Ben Sinnott
· TE
· rank 138
Ben Sinnott at the 132nd overall pick is neither steal nor reach, just the going rate. Better still, it is exactly the hole they had to fill.
R5.8
· Pick 144
· James Williams
· S
· rank 130
They stopped a slide they were happy to see, landing James Williams in pick 144. Insurance at a position that did not really ask for it.
R6.6
· Pick 181
· Julian Pearl
· OT-EDGE
· rank 181
A straight-up fair deal on Julian Pearl at pick No. 181, value and slot in agreement. This was not a hole anyone had circled.
R6.27
· Pick 202
· Jalen Berger
· RB
· rank 199
Jalen Berger at the Round 6 slot is a sensible buy, a touch better than market for the running back. The roster fit checks out.
R7.3
· Pick 223
· Joshua Cephus
· WR
· rank 230
Joshua Cephus in slot 223 is exactly on the number, no argument either way. It also answers one of the loudest questions on the roster.
R7.8
· Pick 228
· Sheridan Jones
· CB
· rank 212
A quiet steal in Round 7, Pick 8: Sheridan Jones for less than the market said. The one spot they could not leave alone, and did not.
