Gambling Nerds NFL 2025 Mock Draft

At Gambling Nerd, we go beyond the headlines to break down the numbers that shape each selection. Every pick we make is informed by scouting reports, betting trends, and the latest odds. This year's mock draft comes from Shaun Stack, a football betting expert and draft analyst with a sharp eye for talent and a proven feel for value. His work is grounded in data, research, and years of draft-day experience. Shaun's articles have been featured in the Daily Herald and Space Coast Daily for his forward-looking models. Inside this mock, we've highlighted key selections from the top 10, with notes on why they matter and how bettors can approach them. Let's get into it.

Top Betting Picks From the 2025 NFL Mock Draft

Experienced bettors know that great bets aren't always about who the oddsmakers like most. They're about timing, insight, and knowing when the numbers leave a crack open for bold predictions. We've highlighted several standout plays from Shaun Stack's NFL 2025 mock draft picks that go beyond speculation. These are bets with traction, trendlines, and value.

1. Tennessee Titans -  Cam Ward (QB, Miami)

Odds: -20,000 on Bovada

No surprises here. Cam Ward is the overwhelming favorite to go first in this year's draft. According to Shaun Stack, Ward might not be the most complete quarterback prospect in recent memory, but the Titans' glaring need under center leaves no room for ambiguity. Tennessee hasn't entertained trade talks and is locked in on Ward, who is listed at an astronomical -20,000 on Bovada.

2. Cleveland Browns- Travis Hunter (CB/WR, Colorado)

Odds: -1000

Shaun sticks with the betting markets here, projecting Travis Hunter as the second overall pick. While some simulators had the Browns leaning toward Abdul Carter or Shedeur Sanders earlier in the offseason, Hunter has surged ahead as the clear favorite at -1000. Stack points out Hunter's versatility as a shutdown corner and explosive receiver, a rare two-way talent Cleveland can't afford to pass up. Although there's some betting value in Carter at +550, Stack believes Hunter's impact potential on either side of the ball gives him the edge.

3. New York Giants-  Abdul Carter (LB, Penn State)

Odds: -500

With Ward and Hunter off the board, the Giants are left with a clear-cut defensive upgrade in Abdul Carter. Shaun emphasizes the logic behind passing on a quarterback. New York signed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in the offseason, which signals a stopgap approach under center. Carter, meanwhile, is an elite linebacker prospect with game-changing speed and instincts. As the -500 favorite, Carter fits perfectly with the Giants' strategy of bolstering their defense while keeping options open at QB in later rounds.

4. New England Patriots- Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)

Odds: +750

Here's where Shaun starts to zag away from the consensus. While Will Campbell was the betting favorite to go 4th overall (-350), Stack calls out the red flags in Campbell's profile, specifically, his subpar arm length. Instead, he projects the Patriots to go with Boise State's Ashton Jeanty at +750. The Patriots, coming off a complete organizational reset and now led by Mike Vrabel, need impact talent, and Stack argues Jeanty could be a game-changer. He compares the former Bronco to a "Derrick Henry-type," which makes sense considering Vrabel's previous reliance on power backs in Tennessee. Jeanty's dual-threat profile and explosive play style would expectedly give New England's offense the punch it's been lacking.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars- Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)    

Odds: +130

The Jaguars stick with chalk here. Mason Graham is the betting favorite at +130, and Shaun follows suit in his mock. Jacksonville's pass rush ranked in the bottom five last year, and new management is expected to target the defensive line early. Graham fits the bill — he was a consistent force at Michigan and brings both run-stopping ability and interior pass-rush upside. Stack does mention sleeper value in Tetairoa McMillan (+700), but he ultimately lands on Graham as the safest and most logical pick for a team starting fresh in 2025.

6. Las Vegas Raiders- Armand Membou (OL, Missouri)

Odds: +275

Even though Ashton Jeanty is the betting favorite to land in Vegas at pick 6 (+110), Stack already projected Jeanty to New England, meaning he's off the board here. This leads Shaun to select Armand Membou, the rising offensive line prospect out of Missouri. Membou has gained significant draft buzz in recent weeks, and Stack notes that he offers immediate help for a Raiders team now guided by Pete Carroll and Tom Brady in the front office. With Geno Smith likely under center and a new RB expected later in the draft, shoring up the trenches becomes a priority. Membou brings positional versatility and high-end athleticism, precisely what Vegas needs to stabilize its offense.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What makes Shaun Stack's 2025 NFL Mock Draft different from others?

Shaun's mock isn't based solely on consensus rankings or college performance. Instead, it's rooted in current betting odds from top sportsbooks like Bovada, insider trends, coaching needs, and front-office tendencies.

How often do draft betting odds shift?

Odds can swing significantly in the week before the draft, even in the hours before. Injury rumors, pro-day performance leaks, and private team workouts can all shift betting lines fast. This emphasizes why Shaun uses late-April odds to understand where things stand before draft night.

The 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Betting Against The Odds

The line between certainty and surprise grows thinner as the draft clock counts down. Shaun Stack's 2025 NFL Mock Draft challenges widespread consensus and redefines our draft night expectations. Whether it's betting against a -350 favorite like Will Campbell or projecting a high-upside gamble like Jaxson Dart, Stack reminds us that the draft is never just about the safest pick; it's about fit, foresight, and sometimes, flat-out guts.