ARZ @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
ARZ Cardinals
19
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ20%19
DAL80%28
28
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
MARKET DAL -10.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
DAL
20% Win Probability 80%
329 Total Yards 411
249 Passing Yards 292
80 Rushing Yards 119
2.8 Sacks 3.6
1.7 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett275 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love52 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.8 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.9 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott299 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams65 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens5.0 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 9.0

Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 80% of them, by 9.0 on average (28-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Josh Sweat (Cardinals) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Josh Sweat, winning 57% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.1 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 59% of routes for 7.6/9.8, 76 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: George Pickens, open on 62% of routes for 5.7/6.9, 55 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals' line should hold up: the Cowboys win just 50% of their reps, mustering 7.3 sacks and 33.2 pressures a game, and Rashan Gary (2.6 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 52% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 24.0 pressures a game, with Josh Sweat (3.7 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Cowboys to feed CeeDee Lamb: 7.6 catches for 76 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • The Cardinals will live and die with Marvin Harrison Jr., who comes open 48% of the time (46 yds a game).
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys lean on Javonte Williams, 13 carries for 65 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Jeremiyah Love sets the tempo for the Cardinals — 52 yds a game on the ground at 7.1 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -9.0
Market lineDAL -10.5
Sim total48
Market total49.5
DAL by 9.0 (80% to win) Projected total 48 pts Dak Prescott ~299 pass yds (250+ 80%) Javonte Williams ~65 rush yds (70+ 40%) CeeDee Lamb ~86 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 60%)