ARZ @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 11 slate
ARZ Cardinals
16
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ18%16
KC82%25
25
KC Chiefs
BET VALUE
MARKET KC -11.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
KC
18% Win Probability 82%
303 Total Yards 380
213 Passing Yards 229
90 Rushing Yards 151
3.7 Sacks 4.2
1.6 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett242 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Michael Wilson5.0 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.4.8 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes237 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.0 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.6 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD

Chiefs by 8.7

The sim sides with Chiefs: a 8.7-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (25-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.4 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) - winner: Mansoor Delane, holding him to 38 yds on just 40% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 7.5 sacks a game — George Karlaftis (3.5 sacks, 11.1 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 49% win rate yields only 6.6 sacks and 28.3 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (3.4 sacks, 10.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs lean on Rashee Rice, good for 6.6 catches and 60 yds a game while breaking open on 56% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Marvin Harrison Jr.'s show for the Cardinals: 38 yds a game, open on 40% of routes.
  • Few balls get past Mansoor Delane (Chiefs), who yields separation on 38% of routes, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Chiefs ride Kenneth Walker III: 13 carries, 83 yds a game (6.4 a carry), finding room to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • The Cardinals hand it to Jeremiyah Love early and often, 8 carries for 54 yds a game at 7.2 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -8.7
Market lineKC -11.5
Sim total40
Market total44.5
KC by 8.7 (82% to win) Projected total 40 pts Jacoby Brissett ~242 pass yds (250+ 44%) Kenneth Walker III ~83 rush yds (70+ 54%) Rashee Rice ~76 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 58%)