ARZ @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
19
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ARZ18%19
KC82%30
30
KC Chiefs

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
KC
18% Win Probability 82%
351 Total Yards 415
293 Passing Yards 223
58 Rushing Yards 192
2.2 Sacks 2.5
1.5 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett311 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love23 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson8.6 rec, 117 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Trey McBride5.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.7 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III149 rush yds, 2.0 TD
REC Rashee Rice4.8 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Travis Kelce3.5 rec, 45 yds, 0.4 TD

Chiefs by 10.3

Across 50 simulations, Chiefs come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 10.3 (30-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 11.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals' quarterback should have time; the Chiefs win just 51% of reps for 4.6 sacks a game, with Felix Anudike-Uzomah (1.2 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chiefs' line should hold up: the Cardinals win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 17.6 pressures a game, and Josh Sweat (2.8 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Rashee Rice headlines the Chiefs' receiving corps — 5.9 catches for 53 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • Michael Wilson should find soft spots all day, open 48% of the time for 75 yds a game.
  • Christian Roland-Wallace (Chiefs) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 40% of his coverage snaps — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chiefs' run game leans on Kenneth Walker III — 13 carries, 149 yds a game (11.4 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Jeremiyah Love is the workhorse for the Cardinals, churning 23 yds a game at 2.4 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

KC by 10.3 (82% to win) Projected total 49 pts Jacoby Brissett ~311 pass yds (250+ 78%) Kenneth Walker III ~149 rush yds (70+ 90%) Michael Wilson ~117 rec yds, 8.6 rec (70+ 90%)