ARZ @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
ARZ Cardinals
13
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ6%13
LA94%32
32
LA Rams
BET VALUE
Lean LA -13.5 +5.6 pts
MARKET LA -13.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
LA
6% Win Probability 94%
273 Total Yards 481
214 Passing Yards 328
59 Rushing Yards 153
2.0 Sacks 4.8
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett251 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.1 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.9 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford300 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams85 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 98 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams4.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD

Rams by 19.1

The model leans Rams by 19.1, winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 32-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Myles Garrett (Rams) vs Paris Johnson Jr. (Cardinals) - winner: Myles Garrett, winning 56% of reps for 5.1 sacks and 13.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 65% of routes for 10.6/12.0, 95 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 4.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 61% of routes for 5.5/7.5, 54 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams may have to manufacture pressure, winning 53% up front for 9.5 sacks a game, and Myles Garrett (5.1 sacks, 13.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 50% win rate yields only 4.8 sacks and 20.4 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (3.1 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua should find soft spots all day, open 65% of the time for 95 yds a game.
  • The Cardinals' aerial attack runs through Marvin Harrison Jr. (41 yds a game, open on 40% of routes).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Trent McDuffie (Rams): 37% separation allowed with 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Rams ride Kyren Williams: 17 carries, 85 yds a game (5.1 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Jeremiyah Love sets the tempo for the Cardinals — 35 yds a game on the ground at 4.9 a carry and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -19.1
Market lineLA -13.5
Sim total45
Market total47.5
LA by 19.1 (94% to win) Projected total 45 pts Matthew Stafford ~300 pass yds (250+ 76%) Kyren Williams ~85 rush yds (70+ 58%) Puka Nacua ~98 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 84%)