ARZ @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
20
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ20%20
LAC80%30
30
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
MARKET LAC -10.5 · O/U 46

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
LAC
20% Win Probability 80%
314 Total Yards 414
242 Passing Yards 266
73 Rushing Yards 148
2.6 Sacks 4.0
1.7 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett270 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love40 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Michael Wilson5.1 rec, 67 yds, 0.5 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert260 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton77 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.6 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD

Chargers by 10.9

The sim sides with Chargers: a 10.9-point edge and a 80% win rate over 50 runs (30-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 6.5 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 5.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 49% of reps for 8.1 sacks a game, Tuli Tuipulotu (4.8 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Cardinals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.6 sacks a game — Josh Sweat (3.0 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Chargers to feed Ladd McConkey: 6.8 catches for 63 yds a game, open 51% of the time.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. is the go-to for the Cardinals, separating on 46% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Donte Jackson (Chargers), who yields separation on 41% of routes, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Omarion Hampton carries the load for the Chargers, 12 carries for 77 yds a game at 6.5 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Jeremiyah Love is the workhorse for the Cardinals, churning 40 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -10.9
Market lineLAC -10.5
Sim total50
Market total46
LAC by 10.9 (80% to win) Projected total 50 pts Jacoby Brissett ~270 pass yds (250+ 54%) Omarion Hampton ~77 rush yds (70+ 44%) Marvin Harrison Jr. ~82 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 58%)