ARZ @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
ARZ Cardinals
19
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ22%19
NO78%25
25
NO Saints
BET VALUE
MARKET NO -5.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
NO
22% Win Probability 78%
326 Total Yards 404
240 Passing Yards 310
86 Rushing Yards 94
1.8 Sacks 4.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett270 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.7 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough311 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.51 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Chris Olave7.5 rec, 110 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson5.3 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD

Saints by 5.8

The model leans Saints by 5.8, winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 5.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jordyn Tyson (Saints) vs Will Johnson (Cardinals) - winner: Jordyn Tyson, open on 58% of routes for 6.2/7.9, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Saints — a 50% win rate yields only 8.2 sacks and 34.6 pressures a game, led by Chase Young (4.8 sacks, 10.5 pressures a game).
  • The Saints' line should hold up: the Cardinals win just 49% of their reps, mustering 3.7 sacks and 14.6 pressures a game, and Josh Sweat (2.7 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 89 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. is the engine of the Cardinals' passing game — 47 yds a game on 44% separation.
  • Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 40% of routes — and 0.9 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Travis Etienne Jr.: 51 yds a game at 4.5 a carry for the Saints, churning off right tackle.
  • The Cardinals' run game leans on Jeremiyah Love — 8 carries, 46 yds a game (5.9 a carry), with his best work to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -5.8
Market lineNO -5.5
Sim total44
Market total44.5
NO by 5.8 (78% to win) Projected total 44 pts Tyler Shough ~311 pass yds (250+ 82%) Travis Etienne Jr. ~51 rush yds (70+ 18%) Chris Olave ~110 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 88%)