ARZ @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
22
PROJECTION
ARZ 24 – NYG 36
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
ARZ48%22 24
NYG52%22 36
22
NYG Giants
✗ RESULT NYG by 12 model ARZ by 0.1, off by 12.1
✓ SPREAD NYG +1.5 WIN line at publish ARZ -1.5
• TOTAL 60 pts OVER O/U 44, model 44

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
NYG
48% Win Probability 52%
335 Total Yards 339
271 Passing Yards 260
63 Rushing Yards 79
1.6 Sacks 2.0
1.0 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett283 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love25 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Michael Wilson7.4 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.4.4 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston267 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo47 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.7 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Malachi Fields3.4 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD

Cardinals by 0.1

Cardinals are the pick here, favoured by 0.1 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 22-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Jack Gibbens, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Arvell Reese (Giants) - winner: Arvell Reese, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.1 sacks a game — Josh Sweat (2.2 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Cardinals' line should hold up: the Giants win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.3 sacks and 18.8 pressures a game — Kayvon Thibodeaux (0.9 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Cardinals to feed Michael Wilson: 8.3 catches for 66 yds a game, open 55% of the time.
  • Malik Nabers should find soft spots all day, open 50% of the time for 68 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Starling Thomas V (Cardinals): 44% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jeremiyah Love is the workhorse for the Cardinals, churning 25 yds a game at 2.8 a carry against a stingy front.
  • On the ground, the Giants ride Cam Skattebo: 15 carries, 47 yds a game (3.1 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineARZ -0.1
Market lineARZ -1.5
Sim total44
Market total44
ARZ by 0.1 (48% to win) Projected total 44 pts Jacoby Brissett ~283 pass yds (250+ 72%) Cam Skattebo ~47 rush yds (70+ 10%) Michael Wilson ~91 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 72%)