ARZ @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
21
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ60%21
NYG40%19
19
NYG Giants
BET VALUE
Lean ARZ +7 +8.7 pts
MARKET NYG -7 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
NYG
60% Win Probability 40%
338 Total Yards 321
241 Passing Yards 221
97 Rushing Yards 100
3.3 Sacks 3.8
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett261 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.6 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.7 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart240 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.4 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.7 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD

Cardinals by 1.7

The model leans Cardinals by 1.7, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.5 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 49% win rate yields only 5.9 sacks and 25.2 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (3.1 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Giants — a 50% win rate yields only 7.2 sacks and 32.2 pressures a game, with Brian Burns (3.7 sacks, 10.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. is the engine of the Cardinals' passing game — 54 yds a game on 54% separation.
  • The Giants lean on Malik Nabers, good for 6.4 catches and 64 yds a game while breaking open on 54% of his routes.
  • On the back end, Isaiah Oliver (Cardinals) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 44% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cardinals' run game leans on Jeremiyah Love — 8 carries, 61 yds a game (7.5 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side and moving the chains.
  • Cam Skattebo is the workhorse for the Giants, churning 55 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineARZ -1.7
Market lineNYG -7
Sim total40
Market total45.5
ARZ by 1.7 (60% to win) Projected total 40 pts Jacoby Brissett ~261 pass yds (250+ 46%) Jeremiyah Love ~61 rush yds (70+ 32%) Malik Nabers ~89 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 62%)