ARZ @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
17
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ16%17
SEA84%30
30
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -13.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
SEA
16% Win Probability 84%
314 Total Yards 409
233 Passing Yards 252
80 Rushing Yards 157
1.6 Sacks 3.2
2.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett258 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love43 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.8 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Michael Wilson5.0 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold236 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet84 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.7 rec, 69 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.9 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD

Seahawks by 13.5

The model leans Seahawks by 13.5, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 30-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 38 yds on just 38% open, 1.4 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 5.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 5.3 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 62% of routes for 6.8/8.0, 65 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (7.1 sacks a game), Uchenna Nwosu (2.1 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the Cardinals win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.5 sacks and 14.4 pressures a game (Josh Sweat (2.5 sacks, 5.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Seahawks to feed Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6.8 catches for 65 yds a game, open 62% of the time.
  • The Cardinals lean on Michael Wilson, good for 5.3 catches and 40 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 30% of his coverage snaps, good for 1.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Zach Charbonnet carries the load for the Seahawks, 17 carries for 84 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Jeremiyah Love is the workhorse for the Cardinals, churning 43 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -13.5
Market lineSEA -13.5
Sim total47
Market total45.5
SEA by 13.5 (84% to win) Projected total 47 pts Jacoby Brissett ~258 pass yds (250+ 60%) Zach Charbonnet ~84 rush yds (70+ 62%) Marvin Harrison Jr. ~72 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 54%)