ARZ @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
21
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
ARZ46%21
SF54%25
25
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
Lean ARZ +11.5 +7.5 pts
MARKET SF -11.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
SF
46% Win Probability 54%
333 Total Yards 409
237 Passing Yards 291
95 Rushing Yards 118
2.9 Sacks 3.3
1.6 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett256 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Wilson5.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.3 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy292 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey61 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Mike Evans4.9 rec, 69 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall4.1 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD

49ers by 4.0

The model leans 49ers by 4.0, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 25-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 6.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the 49ers — a 50% win rate, 6.7 sacks and 32.8 pressures a game — Nick Bosa (2.8 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 49% win rate yields only 6.4 sacks and 30.0 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (3.3 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Mike Evans to eat: 5.4 catches and 52 yds a game for the 49ers.
  • Michael Wilson is the engine of the Cardinals' passing game — 46 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • Fred Warner (49ers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 42% of routes with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The 49ers' run game leans on Christian McCaffrey — 16 carries, 61 yds a game (3.8 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Jeremiyah Love: 53 yds a game at 6.7 a carry for the Cardinals, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -4.0
Market lineSF -11.5
Sim total46
Market total46.5
SF by 4.0 (54% to win) Projected total 46 pts Brock Purdy ~292 pass yds (250+ 78%) Christian McCaffrey ~61 rush yds (70+ 24%) Michael Wilson ~74 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 58%)